I'm with the OP and wdleehi, the Celtics are still the team to beat. Some teams have improved, but nobody to the point of looking superior to the Celtics. And the East is what we need to worry about not because it's better, but because we will play a maximum of 1 Western team in the playoffs. Why worry about how we match up with the Lakers when we may be matching up with the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs, or even Suns or Rockets, if we make it to the Finals? We have to beat 3 Eastern teams to get there.
It's really early, but here are my current thoughts.
Celtics - I'm really bummed about losing Posey, but I have a lot of hope for us being able to pick up the pieces. I think Rondo and Perk both build on their improvements from last year and become recognized nationally as defensive studs. I also think both improve their offensive games a bit. While KG, Pierce and Allen will all be older, I think they actually play better together with a year and a title under their belts. I think Allen particularly will have a better season now that he's becoming more accustomed to a catch and shoot type game (instead of shooting off the dribble as he had done his entire career). And I think our bench is weakened but still good enough to keep us on top of the East with more than 60 wins.
Pistons - will be good, but barring a move, I don't see this team continuing its ECF trend. I just think, frankly, the Celtics, Cavs, Sixers and probably the Magic and Wizards are all better than them. Best case scenario for them is they finish 2nd or 3rd and Cleveland and Philly finish 4th and 5th. Then they could probably make their way back to the ECF, but I cannot see them beating Boston, Cleveland or Philly at all. I think they finish third with about 50-52 wins.
Magic - still a very good team, though I think they have weaknesses (no power forward or real shooting guard) that will be exploited more this year. I think losing Dooling and Evans will hurt them quite a bit, though I like the Pietrus signing to make up for much of it. And while I thought Turkoglu should have been an ALl Star this year, I don't think he will be as good this year. I think they drop down a bit to the 4th seed, maybe the 6th if Washington comes together. 45-50 wins
Cavs - probably a little improved with Gibson healthy and Lebron matured for another year. Hopefully for Cleveland's sake he works a lot on outside shooting with Team USA this summer. I think they'll be the two seed in the East next year with 52-55 wins.
But I think the thing that could make them an even tougher contender for the Celtics is their flexibility around the trade deadline. They have something like $30 million in expiring contracts this year (Wally $13, Snow $7.3, Joe Smith $4.8, Damon Jones $4.45, maybe Delonte $2.75 if he signs the qualifying offer - he may be trade bait if they want Gibson more than him). Depending on who becomes available, Cleveland is in the best position to go get a star from a bad team, if one is available.
For example, Denver appears to be throwing in the towel. What if Cleveland sent expiring contracts constituting about 80% of AI's salary (Wally and Damon Jones), their first rounder this year, Hickson, and a draft pick for Iverson? Heck, they could include Ben Wallace, who expires in 2010, and take on Kenyon Martin, who has a player option for $16.5 million in 2010-11, as a financial bonus for Denver (and maybe hold onto Hickson). Ben Wallace, Wally, Damon Jones, and 2 picks for Iverson and Martin probably works for both teams.
Denver focuses on building around Carmelo long term without spending quite as much money in the short term on a non-contender. They'd save about $23 million on the deal ($5 mil this year, $1.5 mil next year, $16.5 mil in 2010-11). Getting rid of Martin would mean they only have about $28.5 million in salary committed in 2010-11, so with close to $30 million in cap space (subtracting some rookie contracts, an extension for JR Smith, and minimum salaries for empty roster spots, probably more like $22-24 mil) they might be able to lure a big free agent to join their core of Anthony, Smith and Nene.
Cleveland ends up with a lineup of Iverson-West-Lebron-Martin-Z and a bench of Gibson, Pavlovic, Hickson, Smith and Varejao, and still has about $12 million in expiring contracts plus Hickson and West to go after a bigger 2 guard with another trade to start alongside Iverson. Maybe the Iverson thing doesn't work out great, but it gives Lebron a legitimate, secondary threat and maybe appeases him enough to look at staying. Plus, Cleveland still has only about $38 million committed to 2010-11 (that includes Lebron), so they can potentially try to attract a bigger name to join James that year if Iverson really doesn't work out.
Wizards - they're the same team they've always been. As usual, if they stay healthy, they're dangerous. But Jamison just had a career year and is in his 30s now, and I HATE signing Arenas for that much - I thought they were better without him there. They could win the South, and have given the Celtics trouble, so they would still be a dangerous 4th or 5th team. I think they finish 6th, though, and I think they'd have a legitimate chance at knocking off the Pistons in the first round. 42-46 wins.
Raptors - I don't know what to expect. I don't think O'Neal will add a ton, but I don't think they gave up anything substantial, or more appropriately, necessary, to get him. I'm not the biggest Bosh fan in the world, but I like Calderon and I think Bargnani will be better than last year with a little less pressure having a current and former All Star ahead of him. They might be able to move up to the 5th seed, but I think they actually will slide to 7th or 8th. I just don't think they're very good. 40-42 wins.
Sixers - good but still inconsistent. No outside shooting threat as of now, Brand is excellent but I'm okay with having KG on him. Their other scoring threat is Iguodala, who the Pistons showed can be completely neutralized. I think they're a couple years (which may not be possible if Miller takes off) and a couple players away. Still, I'm a big fan of Brand, and I think if he stays healthy, they finish 5th and may knock off the Magic in the first round, depending on how Hedo and Lewis are shooting. But I think the Celtics would work them over fairly easily. 44-48 wins.
Hawks - a lot depends on what happens with Josh Smith, but I really don't see them being much better than last year, and it may take more wins to get to the playoffs this time around. I think losing Childress and the uncertainty surrounding Smith will undo all positive vibes they had going at the end of last season. The loss of Childress will expose their horrible bench as well as Smith's inconsistency and Marvin Williams' inconsistency and overall subpar play. And I think Bibby is essentially done. If they don't resolve the Smith situation, I don't see them making the playoffs, and they may not make it at all. 35-40 wins.
Others - the Bulls and Heat could improve in a hurry. With Deng, Gordon and Gooden playing for contracts and Hinrich playing to redeem his reputation, if Rose, Noah and Thomas can develop quickly enough, Chicago could easily make the playoffs. I mean, they were a second round team just two years ago. The Heat have PG and C problems, but Wade can be good enough to carry a team to the playoffs, especially with Marion playing for a contract and Beasley stepping in. The Bucks and Pacers also have an outside shot at cracking the playoffs since they both made what I consider good moves in the offseason.
I'd probably guess Chicago makes the playoffs as the 7th seed and Toronto drops to eighth. I think in the first round, Boston beats Toronto, Cleveland beats Chicago, Washington upsets Detroit, and Philly beats Orlando. I think we take Philly and Cleveland once again beats Washington, setting us up for an ECF showdown with the Cavs. Because I think Cleveland will make some type of huge move at the trade deadline, I just can't say how I see it shaking out. But if the rosters stay as they are now, I think we take it again.
Topic: Championship repeat chances looking great (Read 10649 times)