Signing Posey gave C's best chance to win a title. It did?

[CoachBo]

You're forgetting that Ricky had to be removed from the clubhouse for a reason when he was dealt. In addition, he can't guard a chair.

One would have thought by now that the importance of defense to NBA championship basketball would be clear. Apparently not.

There are a lot of options on the table, very few of them any good. Ricky Davis is one of the worst.

We don't have to agree on James Posey's necessity for next season. But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down and Scal's not going to be knocking those threes down in Game 4 of the finals. The penny-pinching is over and Posey is gone, but he deserves his due as a SUBSTANTIAL contributor to the championship.

[Steve Weinman]

You're forgetting that Ricky had to be removed from the clubhouse for a reason when he was dealt. In addition, he can't guard a chair.

One would have thought by now that the importance of defense to NBA championship basketball would be clear. Apparently not.

There are a lot of options on the table, very few of them any good. Ricky Davis is one of the worst.

We don't have to agree on James Posey's necessity for next season. But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down and Scal's not going to be knocking those threes down in Game 4 of the finals. The penny-pinching is over and Posey is gone, but he deserves his due as a SUBSTANTIAL contributor to the championship.

Giddens, Walker, and O'Bryant are young chips that Danny wants to develop.

This is my big problem with losing Posey. We are going to contend next year, and we have a lot of young guys rostered right now that are absolutely NOT ready to contribute to a title run. We have no idea what we're going to get from:

O'Blount
Giddens
Walker
Pruitt

We really needed a guy like Posey who is a proven commodity off the bench.

Is Kurt Thomas a proven guy off the bench? If the Celtics signed him, KG would only ever have to play PF instead of so much time at C. Powe and Davis could relieve him for the remainder of the PF minutes. That leaves Pierce playing his 36 -38 MPG at SF which leaves just 10-12 minutes per game of Posey's 24 MPG left to fill. Bill Walker as a rookie or a cheap fillin like Barnes or Wells can fill in the rest.

Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF. So in essence you are filling in Posey's minutes with a combo of 13 minutes of KG, Powe, and Davis all who no longer have to play center and 11 minutes of Walker and a free agent.

So Posey's bench presence is replaced almost exclusively by proven bench people or KG with the possible exception of the few minutes Walker picks up.

To properly replace Posey the Celtics do not have to get a Posey replication.

Nick, with all due respect, I have lots of problems with this analysis. I think you are assuming some wrong premisses. For example, this stats-based statement - Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF - is simply inaccurate. Let me play Socrates a little bit here: in your scenario, who's Ray's backup? Walker, who plays more like a PF than a SF? Barnes, who's already slow for a SF?

cordobes and Coach holdin' it down, as always.  You've both articulated Big Game's importance well better than I likely could (though I'll be doing my best in Thursday's Babble that goes up at 1am EST) -- and saved me some typing in the process.  Co-sign on all thoughts thus far.

-sw

[nickagneta]

Giddens, Walker, and O'Bryant are young chips that Danny wants to develop.

This is my big problem with losing Posey. We are going to contend next year, and we have a lot of young guys rostered right now that are absolutely NOT ready to contribute to a title run. We have no idea what we're going to get from:

O'Blount
Giddens
Walker
Pruitt

We really needed a guy like Posey who is a proven commodity off the bench.

Is Kurt Thomas a proven guy off the bench? If the Celtics signed him, KG would only ever have to play PF instead of so much time at C. Powe and Davis could relieve him for the remainder of the PF minutes. That leaves Pierce playing his 36 -38 MPG at SF which leaves just 10-12 minutes per game of Posey's 24 MPG left to fill. Bill Walker as a rookie or a cheap fillin like Barnes or Wells can fill in the rest.

Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF. So in essence you are filling in Posey's minutes with a combo of 13 minutes of KG, Powe, and Davis all who no longer have to play center and 11 minutes of Walker and a free agent.

So Posey's bench presence is replaced almost exclusively by proven bench people or KG with the possible exception of the few minutes Walker picks up.

To properly replace Posey the Celtics do not have to get a Posey replication.

Nick, with all due respect, I have lots of problems with this analysis. I think you are assuming some wrong premisses. For example, this stats-based statement - Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF - is simply inaccurate. Let me play Socrates a little bit here: in your scenario, who's Ray's backup? Walker, who plays more like a PF than a SF? Barnes, who's already slow for a SF?

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8C.HTM

82games.com says Posey played 26% of all the PF minutes for the team last year. 26% of 48 minutes is 12.5 minutes so I rounded it up. I didn't exactly pull out the calculator to do the math at the time.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS11C.HTM

82games.com has Garnett playing 13% of all the center minutes for the Celtics last year. That's about 6.4 minutes a game he played center. If he doesn't have to do that then those 6.4 minutes replace 6.4 minutes of Posey's 12.5 he played at the PF position. Give the rest of those minutes to Powe/Davis. That would in my estimation at least come to a break even in total performance for those minutes.

That leaves the 11-12 minutes of Posey's time that needs to be replaced at SF. Give Walker 4-5 minutes and then a vet minumum type like Barnes/Wells/Ross to pick up the slack.

Socrates, what the hell does Ray's backup have to do with replacing Posey's minutes if I have none of Posey's minutes being backed up by a SG?

Walker played like a power forward in college but played played SF alongside a PF by the name of Michael Beasley. Different game, Socrates. His is a SF game in the NBA.

Giddens can be tried at the SG position to backup Ray and I would also suggest the addition of a good combo guard like a DWest or Dooling as well.

That means instead of Posey at the 4 yr MLE(which I think is a terrible mismanagement of funds) the Celtics would attempt to land a combo of Thomas and Barnes/Wells/Ross and DWest/Dooling with what they have left and try to utilize the rooks if they show they can do the job.

There are other proven guys still available that can round this roster into an improved overall team without the need of Posey and his contract. With Posey this team played a lot of small ball. Many times to the detriment of the team. Maybe getting away from that with a traditional center combo at the center position, keeping KG at his natural and preferred position all of the time with Powe/Davis as his backup and using some combos behind the rest of the starters that fit naturally in those positions will benefit the team as a whole.

And it won't cost the team the amount of money down the road that Posey would have.

Edit: Eddie House could be that combo guard as well. Maybe even a better choice than either Dooling or West.

[Nerf DPOY]

You're forgetting that Ricky had to be removed from the clubhouse for a reason when he was dealt. In addition, he can't guard a chair...........

Ray Allen's always been thought of as a soft defender. Pierce wasn't truly given his due until the finals. Also, had Paul not made so much money that he had the power to put his foot down on the trade to Portland, we surely would have read numerous articles about his icy demeanor and hard partying ways.

Davis was an unfortunate casualty of the " Get Blount out of here at almost all costs " movement, I think. He was a good soldier, and as a sixth man he thrived here. I obviously can't speak for what happened behind the scenes, but I'm skeptical regarding how much of a "cancer" he actually was.

[Steve Weinman]

But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down

The other crucial issue here is cost -- for all those worried about Wyc's money, I don't want to lose BrickJames!

Also, Brick, while we've got a moment here, fair warning: I just realized today what a fun ploy it would be to send you false "Tony signs with Team X!" PMs from time to time just to give you a jolt every now and then.  Perhaps I'll even start writing fake semi-plausible stories to go along with it...oooh this has so much potential, why didn't I think of it sooner? 

I kid, of course...

-sw

[dmar123]

hes not gonna be doin the same stuff at 34-35

[nickagneta]

But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down

The other crucial issue here is cost -- for all those worried about Wyc's money, I don't want to lose BrickJames!

Also, Brick, while we've got a moment here, fair warning: I just realized today what I fun ploy it would be to send you false "Tony signs with Team X!" PMs from time to time just to give you a jolt every now and then.  Perhaps I'll even start writing fake semi-plausible stories to go along with it...oooh this has so much potential, why didn't I think of it sooner? 

I kid, of course...

-sw

Give the man a little power and suddenly he's kidding around about harassing the hell out of a guy.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[Steve Weinman]

hes not gonna be doin the same stuff at 34-35

He's a lot more likely to be doing that sort of stuff at 32 and 33, which, incidentally, will directly coincide with the lion's share of the Celtics' continuing championship window with the three stars.

As I've stressed throughout the off-season, it seems the fairest way to consider the contract situation is that part of the price of having him here for the next two years (in addition to the monetary cost) would have been having to continue to pay him after that.  Since I take the approach that the primary goal far beyond all else is winning championships -- and it's my contention that Posey was an integral part of this team's ability to do so this year and would have been crucial to repeating as well -- that cost seems more than manageable to me, especially when one considers that he becomes valuable as an expiring contract if nothing else in the final year of his deal.

I've said this before, but I think it pertinent here as well.  This team has spent the majority of the last decade stockpiling assets and building to set the table for the future.  Effective July 31, 2007, the future became the present.

-sw

[Steve Weinman]

But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down

The other crucial issue here is cost -- for all those worried about Wyc's money, I don't want to lose BrickJames!

Also, Brick, while we've got a moment here, fair warning: I just realized today what I fun ploy it would be to send you false "Tony signs with Team X!" PMs from time to time just to give you a jolt every now and then.  Perhaps I'll even start writing fake semi-plausible stories to go along with it...oooh this has so much potential, why didn't I think of it sooner? 

I kid, of course...

-sw

Give the man a little power and suddenly he's kidding around about harassing the hell out of a guy.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Fair point, Nick...should have thought about it before my mod-hood days began 

-sw

[BrickJames]

But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down

The other crucial issue here is cost -- for all those worried about Wyc's money, I don't want to lose BrickJames!

Also, Brick, while we've got a moment here, fair warning: I just realized today what I fun ploy it would be to send you false "Tony signs with Team X!" PMs from time to time just to give you a jolt every now and then.  Perhaps I'll even start writing fake semi-plausible stories to go along with it...oooh this has so much potential, why didn't I think of it sooner? 

I kid, of course...

-sw

Heh, I doubt I'd believe any team signed TA unless I saw a facsimile of the signed contract .

In all seriousness though - the issue is simply cost, more specifically, cost over time.

It's very easy for the fan to get sentimental given how likable and important to our success Posey was last season, and react as we've seen, but I'm sure if any of us were actually footing the bill, we'd think about it a little bit differently...

I have to side with nickagneta on this one: you can't truly "replace" Posey, or anyone else for that matter, but that doesn't necessarily mean we are destined to fall short this coming year.  There are so many unknowns during the course of the season (injuries, for example) that it's pretty ridiculous that most of us are looking for some "proof" via personnel that we are a shoe-in to repeat.

I'm actually pretty intrigued about the sign-and-trade for Artest that was apparently in the works according to Hoopsworld (mentioned on the first page of the thread).

Another Ainge smokescreen?  Possibly, but IMO adding Artest, despite all his baggage, is a definitive upgrade over the Pose.

[winsomme]

Didn't San Antonio and Miami and Detroit all try that "Let's bring back the same crew and repeat." philosphy? How'd that work out for them. Bringing back the same crew guarantees nothing and therefore is not the best chance to repeat.

as we discussed in the other thread:

DET - didn't bring back their bench in 2005. they actually lost Mike James, Mehmet Okur and Corliss Williamson  from their 2004 Title winning squad.

MIAMI -  had season and (looking now) possibly career altering injuries to Dwayne Wade and Shaq in 2007. they did not have the same squad in 2007 as they had in 2008 due to those injuries.

SA - basically lost the heart of their team in Manu Ginobili in the WCF. anybody who watched that series knows that Ginobili's injury made it impossible for them to win that series.

[nickagneta]

But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down

The other crucial issue here is cost -- for all those worried about Wyc's money, I don't want to lose BrickJames!

Also, Brick, while we've got a moment here, fair warning: I just realized today what I fun ploy it would be to send you false "Tony signs with Team X!" PMs from time to time just to give you a jolt every now and then.  Perhaps I'll even start writing fake semi-plausible stories to go along with it...oooh this has so much potential, why didn't I think of it sooner? 

I kid, of course...

-sw

Heh, I doubt I'd believe any team signed TA unless I saw a facsimile of the signed contract .

In all seriousness though - the issue is simply cost, more specifically, cost over time.

It's very easy for the fan to get sentimental given how likable and important to our success Posey was last season, and react as we've seen, but I'm sure if any of us were actually footing the bill, we'd think about it a little bit differently...

I have to side with nickagneta on this one: you can't truly "replace" Posey, or anyone else for that matter, but that doesn't necessarily mean we are destined to fall short this coming year.  There are so many unknowns during the course of the season (injuries, for example) that it's pretty ridiculous that most of us are looking for some "proof" via personnel that we are a shoe-in to repeat.

I'm actually pretty intrigued about the sign-and-trade for Artest that was apparently in the works according to Hoopsworld (mentioned on the first page of the thread).

Another Ainge smokescreen?  Possibly, but IMO adding Artest, despite all his baggage, is a definitive upgrade over the Pose.

I was pretty intrigued and quite shocked by that little blurb about Artest.

I started a thread a couple weeks or so ago titled "If not Posey, Artest?". If this were a forum where we had to present our ideas in person, I think I might have been strung up old west style at the town square.

Turns out Ainge was thinking the same thing.

Ahhh, redemption is sweet!!

[cordobes]

Giddens, Walker, and O'Bryant are young chips that Danny wants to develop.

This is my big problem with losing Posey. We are going to contend next year, and we have a lot of young guys rostered right now that are absolutely NOT ready to contribute to a title run. We have no idea what we're going to get from:

O'Blount
Giddens
Walker
Pruitt

We really needed a guy like Posey who is a proven commodity off the bench.

Is Kurt Thomas a proven guy off the bench? If the Celtics signed him, KG would only ever have to play PF instead of so much time at C. Powe and Davis could relieve him for the remainder of the PF minutes. That leaves Pierce playing his 36 -38 MPG at SF which leaves just 10-12 minutes per game of Posey's 24 MPG left to fill. Bill Walker as a rookie or a cheap fillin like Barnes or Wells can fill in the rest.

Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF. So in essence you are filling in Posey's minutes with a combo of 13 minutes of KG, Powe, and Davis all who no longer have to play center and 11 minutes of Walker and a free agent.

So Posey's bench presence is replaced almost exclusively by proven bench people or KG with the possible exception of the few minutes Walker picks up.

To properly replace Posey the Celtics do not have to get a Posey replication.

Nick, with all due respect, I have lots of problems with this analysis. I think you are assuming some wrong premisses. For example, this stats-based statement - Posey played 24 MPG last year about 13 MPG at PF and 11 MPG at SF - is simply inaccurate. Let me play Socrates a little bit here: in your scenario, who's Ray's backup? Walker, who plays more like a PF than a SF? Barnes, who's already slow for a SF?

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8C.HTM

82games.com says Posey played 26% of all the PF minutes for the team last year. 26% of 48 minutes is 12.5 minutes so I rounded it up. I didn't exactly pull out the calculator to do the math at the time.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS11C.HTM

82games.com has Garnett playing 13% of all the center minutes for the Celtics last year. That's about 6.4 minutes a game he played center. If he doesn't have to do that then those 6.4 minutes replace 6.4 minutes of Posey's 12.5 he played at the PF position. Give the rest of those minutes to Powe/Davis. That would in my estimation at least come to a break even in total performance for those minutes.

That leaves the 11-12 minutes of Posey's time that needs to be replaced at SF. Give Walker 4-5 minutes and then a vet minumum type like Barnes/Wells/Ross to pick up the slack.

Socrates, what the hell does Ray's backup have to do with replacing Posey's minutes if I have none of Posey's minutes being backed up by a SG?

So, who the heck was Ray's backup during the playoffs? House never played at the 2, Tony Allen played garbage time plus.. what? 10 minutes? Of course, Pierce can play the 2. But in that case, he'd only be able to play 28 minutes at the 3, his strongest position - what a waste - and in that case, your reasoning that "just 10-12 minutes [would be left] per game of Posey's 24 MPG left to fill. Bill Walker as a rookie or a cheap fillin like Barnes or Wells can fill in the rest" is completely wrong. You'd need Walker or Barnes or Wells to play 20 minutes at the 3. And Walker is, well, the 47th draft pick for a reason; Barnes is a sure bet to be burnt by most SFs in the league and he doesn't fit at all the weakside winger role in our team (he is not a threat from the 3pt line; he can't provide rest to the starters on the defense - can you imagine him guarding Prince or Rip?) and Wells... let's just say that Byron Scott was right when he decided to cut his minutes drastically in the playoffs decisive games.

I'm fully aware of what 82games&all stats say. My point is that they don't give an insightful perception of the dynamics of the team. In fact, during the playoffs, when Posey was rotating in the wing, he was always playing at the "2" on the offensive side (filling Ray Allen's primarily role, even when he was playing along Ray) and guarding the opponent's best wing on the defensive side.

I'm not worried about the regular season at all. What I want to address is the shortened rotation, 8-9 men, for the playoffs.

a combo of Thomas and Barnes/Wells/Ross and DWest/Dooling

Well, there are six combos there. And I believe some of them aren't very realistic. For example, West will be making $2.7M next season, playing as a starter. What are we offering to make him give up that to be a backup here and, perhaps, more importantly, to force Cleveland to lose their starting point-guard? Enough to still add the other two pieces? What if Thomas doesn't come, what will be your theory then? And would you, as a coach, play Rondo and Ross simultaneously? Define a precise combo


With Posey this team played a lot of small ball. Many times to the detriment of the team. Maybe getting away from that with a traditional center combo at the center position, keeping KG at his natural and preferred position all of the time with Powe/Davis as his backup and using some combos behind the rest of the starters that fit naturally in those positions will benefit the team as a whole.

How would the team be benefited by having less flexibility? I cannot agree with this. And your assumption that Perkins and Thomas would fill the entire minutes at the 5 is very risky. Perkins is not going to be a 35 mpg player (stamina, fouls) and Thomas can't be trusted to play 15/20 mpg in every playoff series. He's a good player, but he's 6'9''. Do you know why Popovich cut his playing time to 9mpg versus the Lakers? I'm pretty sure Pop would rather have PJ than Thomas during that series.


Edit: Eddie House could be that combo guard as well. Maybe even a better choice than either Dooling or West.


Agree, but in that case you're saying that a Thomas+Barnes/Wells/Ross combo is better than a Brown+Posey one. I vehemently disagree. And it will be the same problem again: House is only a combo guard offensively. He can't guard 2s like Joe Johnson, Rip or Kobe. That's why Doc only used him as a point. Then, you'd need someone to guard 2s because Ray isn't playing 48mpg. Barnes can't do it, so he's out of the equation if we keep House. Etc. Etc.

[BballTim]

You're forgetting that Ricky had to be removed from the clubhouse for a reason when he was dealt. In addition, he can't guard a chair.

One would have thought by now that the importance of defense to NBA championship basketball would be clear. Apparently not.

There are a lot of options on the table, very few of them any good. Ricky Davis is one of the worst.

We don't have to agree on James Posey's necessity for next season. But please, Tony Allen's not going to shut LeBron down and Scal's not going to be knocking those threes down in Game 4 of the finals. The penny-pinching is over and Posey is gone, but he deserves his due as a SUBSTANTIAL contributor to the championship.

  Posey didn't shut down LeBron either. Allen's got his issues on offense but he's probably a better defender than Posey. Even if you don't think he is, we didn't just lost our best defender (or second best, or third best, or fourth best...). We'll still probably be the best defensive team in the league, and our defense will be good enough to win a title.

[cordobes]

hes not gonna be doin the same stuff at 34-35

He's a lot more likely to be doing that sort of stuff at 32 and 33, which, incidentally, will directly coincide with the lion's share of the Celtics' continuing championship window with the three stars.


As I've stressed throughout the off-season, it seems the fairest way to consider the contract situation is that part of the price of having him here for the next two years (in addition to the monetary cost) would have been having to continue to pay him after that.  Since I take the approach that the primary goal far beyond all else is winning championships -- and it's my contention that Posey was an integral part of this team's ability to do so this year and would have been crucial to repeating as well -- that cost seems more than manageable to me, especially when one considers that he becomes valuable as an expiring contract if nothing else in the final year of his deal.

I've said this before, but I think it pertinent here as well.  This team has spent the majority of the last decade stockpiling assets and building to set the table for the future.  Effective July 31, 2007, the future became the present.

-sw

Excellent post (as usual; TP, as usual). All of it, but I highlighted that part in red because I believe that's where Hollinger, for example, is wrong in his assessment. What Steve explains here is the rationale behind NO decision of offering Posey the 4 year deal and, in another example, the reason why Garnett will be making +$21 million at 36 years old.