Hollinger article on the Posey signing

[Byrdman]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716

I found the comparisons Hollinger used fairly insightful and this certainly reinforced my belief that DA made the right move not paying the MLE for 4 years.

[fairweatherfan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716

I found the comparisons Hollinger used fairly insightful and this certainly reinforced my belief that DA made the right move not paying the MLE for 4 years.

Yup, Hollinger predicted early on someone would overpay for Posey, and it happened.  His comparisons are pretty apt, though he should have taken into account that Posey has played a lot less minutes than some of those guys, which is big in terms of wear and tear.

Still wish Posey the best, and wish he was still here, but glad Danny didn't match that offer.

[Who]

I didn't like the comparisons. Lots of smaller shooting guards. A couple other guys who had injuries. A couple of other guys who just weren't that good to begin with.

Only one player on the list was ever as good as James Posey has been and that's Rick Fox. That's a solid comparison, two similar players. Again Fox had an injury problem which halted his career.

I excluded Eddie Jones from the list since he was a two guard, but by the way he was playing 30+mpg at 35 years of age.

Another name was Mario Elie who at 35 years old was one season removed from having a career season. The next season he'd be a starter on a title winning Spurs team and he'd play two more years at a 20+mpg level.

Dan Majerle had injury problems before and at start of his Miami Heat career right (back injury)? Didn't that play a large role in his decline?

The comparisons Hollinger made were lousy.

[Who]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

[Mr October]

I still don't get this signing by NO. They have too many small forwards.

Will Julian Wright ever play meaningful minutes in New Orleans?

So, um, if you don't want him, we'll take Julian off your hands for Scal and Powe.. 

[wdleehi]

I agree with him that the 4 year contract was to much. 

[nickagneta]

I'm not a Hollinger fan.

I think sometimes he gets caught up so much in the numbers of the players, he misses the game that the players bring as a whole. Sometimes, because of this, he comes to some pretty asinine conclusions. But I can see where his style of thinking, number crunching, and observations would make him a valuable tool as an assistant to a GM type.

I thought this was one of the better and more logical things Hollinger has ever said:

And, as I mentioned, he's a 31-year-old who will be handsomely paid 'til age 35. Nobody wanted to pay him this kind of dough when he was 30, and his production wasn't any different last year -- just the result in June.

And since this is so hard for people to remember, I'll say it again: The Hornets aren't paying for what Posey gave the Celtics last year, or what he gave the Heat in 2006, but for what he can potentially give the Hornets from 2008 to 2012. And that production is likely to diminish substantially from its already modest levels.

Spot on and it's why I am glad Danny didn't give Posey a similar contract.

[cordobes]

Not one of Hollinger's finest moments, IMO.

For starters, the "overpaying" thing: I don't think it's correct to analyse free-agents signing in abstract. The free-agency market, like any other, operates under the law of demand and offer. If the offer is scarce, prices will raise. This free-agency pool was extremely weak. That's why every serviceable player got a big contract: Diop, Beno and Posey got the full-MLE; even Duhon got a $11M/2 years contract.

For example, Hollinger states that:
"I have two other problems with this signing from the Hornets' perspective. First, it doesn't address their main weaknesses. New Orleans badly needs additional frontcourt depth and it seemed only reasonable that it would use the midlevel exception to address that need."

This is a flawed reasoning, because there are no frontcourt players in the FA market who are worth part of the MLE (with the possible exception of Thomas) over guys who can be signed with the minimum. I mean, what's the point of offering Elson a $2M contract and then be forced to keep Bonzi - that your coach didn't trust enough to play more than 8 minutes in the decisive games last season - in the wings, if you can get Earl Barron or some other guy for the minimum? Use the midlevel exception on who? 

Then, who really cares if there's a risk of Posey being unplayable when he's 35? Hollinger is wrong when he says that NO is paying Posey's production for the next 4 years. They are paying him in the next 4 years for his production in the next 2/3 years and his expiring in the 4th.

And finally, you have this:
"But those strengths need to be seen in the context of the bigger picture. The guy has all but abandoned shooting anything besides a 3 -- two-thirds of his shots were triples, the fourth-highest rate in the league and the highest among nonguards -- so despite the 3s, he's a fairly inert offensive player."

What Hollinger is missing is that Posey's the ultimate role player. Hollinger usually says some crazy things about role players because stats are blind to the concept. A big part of Posey's offensive game was precisely bringing the spacing to the table. This doesn't translate to stats, but that's what Riley and Doc asked him. Last season he was basically a weakside spot-up shooter, so of course most of his shots were going to be triples. For instances, Ray Allen usage rate decreased almost a third last season. Hollinger would see this as a caveat. But he would be wrong, it was merely a consequence of the Celtics' offensive system. Personally, I don't agree with those who say that we need scoring from the bench. I'm much more worried about our need for someone who provides spacing coming off the bench.

[ManUp]

Well the article made me feel better, although i didn't need much convincing.

Posey is a great bench player, but just isn't worth 4 years at the Full MLE considering his age and role.

This article just leads me to believe that he'll decline faster than I expect.

[johnnyrondo]

Thing is Danny was offering 2 years, but if he offers 3 yrs earlier in the Summer does Posey take that? If he does, then you are giving yourself the best chance to win the next 2 yrs and in yr 3, when its going to be harder to win anyways, b/c Pierce and KG will be in their mid 30's, Posey if he slips, is an expiring contract. I don't think the risk was THAT great and the main thing is this team had a strong 3 yr window. We won in yr 1. We should of given ourselves the best chance to win in yrs 2 and 3 as well.

[fairweatherfan]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

To be fair, Seattle was never going anywhere with a team centered around Ray Allen.  Paying him $17 million a year from 30-35 never made sense on a team with their kind of budget and market. 

I agree that there are some dissimilarities in the comparisons, but also remember that Posey doesn't have the lateral speed of a lot of those guys, which means he's going to be increasingly dependent on Bowen-style mini handcheck type moves to play defense.  And he really doesn't have a shot in his arsenal other than the open 3 (which Paul will get for him, to be sure).

I think next year will be same old James, more or less, and we'll all be kicking ourselves and screaming bloody murder about whoever gets his minutes.  But I think in 09-10 we'll see a significant decline in his abilities that will get worse every year following.

PS none of this should be construed as a defense of Hollinger generally - I just think he's right on this one.

[gpap]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716

I found the comparisons Hollinger used fairly insightful and this certainly reinforced my belief that DA made the right move not paying the MLE for 4 years.

Really?  You think so?  Because I sure as heck don't. When you have a chance to resign a guy like Posey, you do it!!! It's good to see that after winning a championship, Ainge is turning into the same cheapskate he was before.  At least we have Patrick O'Bryant (whoever the hel* he is.)

[amenhotep04]

I largely agree with Hollinger's comments.  Role players on winning teams, especially championship teams always get overpaid by other teams.  But Posey will pay dividends for the Hornets for at least a couple years, and bring some maturity to a young team.  His criticisms also for Posey are valid.  He much of the time refused to drive to the basket.  I don't know if he ever played that way, but he certainly isn't going to improve on those things for the rest of his career.  His defensive abilities will be missed, but we have some younger guys who have a year under their belt with the new system.  I think this pays off. 

The team is going to be better this year though may not win as many games (championship hangover at the beginning of the season).  The second unit will have more fire power as more of the players will be more confident.  Yet, all hinges upon the younger guys stepping up.  I think that will happen.

This allows for more flexibility with the money, which long term will help the team.

To put things in perspective though, looking at the team right now compared to 10 months ago, I like this team moving forward.  We have a good mix of vets and younger players, as well as the ability in a year or two to move some of these guys.

[jv2764]

Hornets caved in for the 4th year and had to overpay to get him.  Smart move by DA to cave and give the 4th year.

3 years and MLE is a very respectable offer.

[Byrdman]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716

I found the comparisons Hollinger used fairly insightful and this certainly reinforced my belief that DA made the right move not paying the MLE for 4 years.

Really?  You think so?  Because I sure as heck don't. When you have a chance to resign a guy like Posey, you do it!!! It's good to see that after winning a championship, Ainge is turning into the same cheapskate he was before.  At least we have Patrick O'Bryant (whoever the hel* he is.)

Really? I'm sorry I didn't realize that the Celtics were referred to as the Big 4 this season with KG, PP, Ray, and Posey.  I was under the impression he was a nice bench player who came up for big for us a few times during the year, had I realized we had a future HoF'er in our midst I probably would have advocated paying whatever he asked for. Settle down people there are a bunch of James Posey's scattered around the league who just need to be on the right team (i.e. Celtics) to shine, I'm fairly confident DA can find us another.