Hollinger article on the Posey signing

[fairweatherfan]

PS TPs for nick and cordobes for two excellent points on totally opposite sides of the argument - losing Posey, even at that price, isn't an open-and-shut case by any means.  As much as I want to pick a side on it (and I obviously have), this is the most important thing that's going to happen this offseason (knock on wood).

[Who]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

To be fair, Seattle was never going anywhere with a team centered around Ray Allen.  Paying him $17 million a year from 30-35 never made sense on a team with their kind of budget and market. 

That's a different reason than the one Hollinger gave. He said Ray was likely going to decline and not be worth his contract.

Also, Seattle had just won 52 games and played San Antonio as tough as anyone while their best players were struggling with injury. They were one of the brightest teams in the NBA, the reason for their fall from grace was management (incidentally) ignoring the value of its role players and not replacing valuable contributors well enough and not at all in some cases. So the 30-35 win argument wasn't in the picture at the time he signed on board.

[soap07]

The free-agency market, like any other, operates under the law of demand and offer. If the offer is scarce, prices will raise. This free-agency pool was extremely weak. That's why every serviceable player got a big contract: Diop, Beno and Posey got the full-MLE; even Duhon got a $11M/2 years contract.

First, why would you spend money for the sake of spending money? Second, just because the Knicks made a colossal mistake in overpaying for Duhon and the Beno/Diop received ridiculous money, does not mean the C's/Hornets should. Don't let other teams dictate the market. That is simple management. It gets teams into trouble. Also, you leave out that Duhon's deal was only for two years. The C's (presumably) offered Posey the full MLE for three years, which is more than reasonable considering his age.

The FA market isn't as thin as you claim. The C's are an attractive FA destination for buyouts during the year and giving Posey a 4th year, when he will most likely not be productive for the third/fourth year just makes for a solid business decision.

[Byrdman]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

To be fair, Seattle was never going anywhere with a team centered around Ray Allen.  Paying him $17 million a year from 30-35 never made sense on a team with their kind of budget and market. 

That's a different reason than the one Hollinger gave. He said Ray was likely going to decline and not be worth his contract.

Also, Seattle had just won 52 games and played San Antonio as tough as anyone while their best players were struggling with injury. They were one of the brightest teams in the NBA, the reason for their fall from grace was management (incidentally) ignoring the value of its role players and not replacing valuable contributors well enough and not at all in some cases. So the 30-35 win argument wasn't in the picture at the time he signed on board.

Listen I love Ray Allen as much as any Boston fan but I think it's fair to say that he probably is overpaid for his on-court production. I've got no complaints since we just won the title but let's face it if Ray Allen was a free agent this year he wouldn't be getting max level offers. That's what Hollinger's point was, that RA isn't going to earn a max level contract at his age.

[cordobes]

The free-agency market, like any other, operates under the law of demand and offer. If the offer is scarce, prices will raise. This free-agency pool was extremely weak. That's why every serviceable player got a big contract: Diop, Beno and Posey got the full-MLE; even Duhon got a $11M/2 years contract.

First, why would you spend money for the sake of spending money? Second, just because the Knicks made a colossal mistake in overpaying for Duhon and the Beno/Diop received ridiculous money, does not mean the C's/Hornets should. Don't let other teams dictate the market. That is simple management. It gets teams into trouble. Also, you leave out that Duhon's deal was only for two years. The C's (presumably) offered Posey the full MLE for three years, which is more than reasonable considering his age.

The FA market isn't as thin as you claim. The C's are an attractive FA destination for buyouts during the year and giving Posey a 4th year, when he will most likely not be productive for the third/fourth year just makes for a solid business decision.

I was not arguing that we should spend money for the sake of spending money. The point is that free-agents prices are not defined in a objective way, in abstract. Posey got this contract because he's much better than everyone else still unsigned. If the NOH haven't paid him, they'd be a weaker team next season almost certainly. Who makes a very good point on his previous post about those Walker-Sund run Seattle teams.

I didn't leave out that Duhon's deal was for two years. In fact, I wrote " Duhon got a $11M/2 years contract". You quoted me correctly, for that matter. 

Players who get buyouts during the year generally aren't good enough to be the 6th man in a contending team.

I don't know if Posey will most likely not be productive in his 3rd/4th year. Barring injuries, I think he will. But the point here is that you're paying him to be productive in the first 2/3 years with a 4th year contract.

[fairweatherfan]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

To be fair, Seattle was never going anywhere with a team centered around Ray Allen.  Paying him $17 million a year from 30-35 never made sense on a team with their kind of budget and market. 

That's a different reason than the one Hollinger gave. He said Ray was likely going to decline and not be worth his contract.

Also, Seattle had just won 52 games and played San Antonio as tough as anyone while their best players were struggling with injury. They were one of the brightest teams in the NBA, the reason for their fall from grace was management (incidentally) ignoring the value of its role players and not replacing valuable contributors well enough and not at all in some cases. So the 30-35 win argument wasn't in the picture at the time he signed on board.

By 30-35 I meant Ray's age over the course of the contract, not the estimated # of wins.  Seattle had the capability to put a decent to good team together with that contract on their books, but they were never going to win a championship or come particularly close, not without another top-20 guy (like Pierce or KG).  Ray can't and never could be the #1 guy on a championship team, and he would've had to be for that contract to be worth it. 

Anyway, we'll see what happens...I know the Hornets will be my Western Conference rooting interest for next season at lesat.

[Who]

Didn't Hollinger write the same article on Ray Allen three years ago?

To be fair, Seattle was never going anywhere with a team centered around Ray Allen.  Paying him $17 million a year from 30-35 never made sense on a team with their kind of budget and market. 

That's a different reason than the one Hollinger gave. He said Ray was likely going to decline and not be worth his contract.

Also, Seattle had just won 52 games and played San Antonio as tough as anyone while their best players were struggling with injury. They were one of the brightest teams in the NBA, the reason for their fall from grace was management (incidentally) ignoring the value of its role players and not replacing valuable contributors well enough and not at all in some cases. So the 30-35 win argument wasn't in the picture at the time he signed on board.

By 30-35 I meant Ray's age over the course of the contract, not the estimated # of wins.  Seattle had the capability to put a decent to good team together with that contract on their books, but they were never going to win a championship or come particularly close, not without another top-20 guy (like Pierce or KG).  Ray can't and never could be the #1 guy on a championship team, and he would've had to be for that contract to be worth it. 

Anyway, we'll see what happens...I know the Hornets will be my Western Conference rooting interest for next season at lesat.

Sorry about that, misunderstood.

[Brickowski]

Posey makes NO better, but how much better?  He doesn't fill a hole.  He sends Julian Wright to the end of the bench, and that's too bad because Wright played very well for the Hornets.  And they've got Mo Pete as their shooter on the second unit.

The Hornets needed another banger to give Chandler some help on the boards more than they needed Posey. 

[guava_wrench]

And finally, you have this:
"But those strengths need to be seen in the context of the bigger picture. The guy has all but abandoned shooting anything besides a 3 -- two-thirds of his shots were triples, the fourth-highest rate in the league and the highest among nonguards -- so despite the 3s, he's a fairly inert offensive player."

What Hollinger is missing is that Posey's the ultimate role player. Hollinger usually says some crazy things about role players because stats are blind to the concept. A big part of Posey's offensive game was precisely bringing the spacing to the table. This doesn't translate to stats, but that's what Riley and Doc asked him. Last season he was basically a weakside spot-up shooter, so of course most of his shots were going to be triples.

It was not just how he was used. Posey is bad at finishing. When he cuts baseline and KG passes him the ball, he rarely finishes and usually only scpres if he can draw a foul.

I loved his 3 pt shooting, but his lack of other moves offensively was frustrating.

[vjcsmoke]

Four-year, $25 million deal.  That says it all to me.  Posey is not worth 6M per year for the next 4 years.  Not as a bench player.
Time for the Celtics to investigate other options.
Is Bruce Bowen completely washed up or is he worth taking a look at for the vet min?

[cordobes]

And finally, you have this:
"But those strengths need to be seen in the context of the bigger picture. The guy has all but abandoned shooting anything besides a 3 -- two-thirds of his shots were triples, the fourth-highest rate in the league and the highest among nonguards -- so despite the 3s, he's a fairly inert offensive player."

What Hollinger is missing is that Posey's the ultimate role player. Hollinger usually says some crazy things about role players because stats are blind to the concept. A big part of Posey's offensive game was precisely bringing the spacing to the table. This doesn't translate to stats, but that's what Riley and Doc asked him. Last season he was basically a weakside spot-up shooter, so of course most of his shots were going to be triples.

It was just how he was used. Posey is bad at finishing. When he cuts baseline and KG passes him the ball, he rarely finishes and usually only scpres if he can draw a foul.

I loved his 3 pt shooting, but his lack of other moves offensively was frustrating.

Yeps, but how many times Garnett actually passed him the ball in those cuts? Mostly when Posey's defender failed to read the cut. Posey was involved in that play basically because he's a very good entry passer to the post, due to his height and skills. His subsequent movement was a way of moving to his spot in the weakside and drag a defender. See Ray Allen: he's an excellent finisher and when playing as the weakside winger he was primarily a spot-up jumper. Only when we had Rondo executing the DDM offense, the 2nd winger was asked to penetrate and attack the rim, but that was an epic fail in the playoffs and will be until (and if) Rondo develops a reliable jump-shot.

[guava_wrench]

Four-year, $25 million deal.  That says it all to me.  Posey is not worth 6M per year for the next 4 years.  Not as a bench player.

I agree in the sense that only in the best case scenario does he end up worth that big of an investment.

[sk7326]

I'm not going to rip Posey.  He helped this team a year ago.  But he did not magically help the Heat repeat.  There were systemic problems there, but the largest problem was that their role players STUNK.  Posey was among the guilty parties then.  Posey did what was best for his family.  The Celtics did what made sense for their franchise.  No need to panic yet.

[zerophase]

posey wasn't THAT overpaid. i do have to agree with the idea that New Orleans doesn't need another 3... but his salary vs. worth was no where near how much people overpaid for kapono or lewis last year.

[TheReaLPuba]

Hollinger again like most shallow observers point to Posey's ppg. for evaluation of his contribution.

That is not a good indication of the true value of a guy like Posey.

This team is going to miss Posey significantly on a teammate level.

I just hope the C's win enough games to mask that loss.