Win it all next year vs. economic suicide

[nickagneta]

I just finished reading Jeff's excellent article on the front page talking about where Posey and Maggette might make their decisions to play next year and for years to come. Something in the article got me to thinking:

The Boston Celtics may have tipped their hand too early with James Posey, when news of contact with Corey Maggette surfaced, Posey's camp got on the offensive opening talks with a number of interested teams including the Lakers. Sources close to the situation say if Boston does not come with a full boat (5-year) deal at the Mid Level, James has that from other teams.

http://celticsblog.com/

James Posey already has a 5-year full MLE from other teams and is expecting the same thing from the Celtics in order to sign here?

Big Game James is the man and proved that all year. But during the playoffs guarding some quicker, faster, younger men, Big Game James proved he was a 31 year old man who may already reached the peak of his abilities and may have skills on the decline.

Posey was getting abused at times by LeBron and Josh Smith because their first step was so quick and they already had their position established before Posey could react. He performed better against Kobe but he was really the third option on guarding Kobe whereas he was a first or second option on LeBron and Smith.

This is a situation and ability that does not get better when you go from 31 to 32.

And yet James Posey is telling Danny Ainge that he wants a 5 year, $27.6 million contract that at the age of 37 will be paying a player, who will never have started for this team other than in emergency situation, $8.8 million for possibly being at that time the 3rd or 4th player off the bench?

Is retaining James Posey and what many appear the best chance of repreating worth having another aging overpaid player. We have Pierce and KG locked up into their mid 30's at near max money.

Are we assuring another 20 year drought by being fiscally foolish now because we are sentimentally attched to the 2008 Boston Celtics players?

My opinion is that I love James Posey but I would not lock him in at max MLE cash for anything more than 3 years. If he wants more, focus on Mickael Pietrus with the full MLE. He's as good a defender as Posey, plays the same position, can shoot, has 3 point range though it's not a huge part of his game, and he's only 28 years old.

That of course is if Corey Maggette doesn't sign for the full MLE. He's 29, a starter on every other team in the league and can be here as well if Doc ever wanted to start a small, stop-me-if-you-can, scoring team of KG, Maggette, Pierce, Allen and Rondo(that's a scary thought to 29 other head coaches across the league), if tremendously more talented than Posey and could bridge a gap to future long term success.

Maggette and Pietrus are fiscally smart investments toward longer term success for the club. Posey, to me isn't. I think it is incumbant upon Danny to not make the mistake of becoming so sentimentally attached to 2008 that it will hurt 2011-2015. We may care more about 2009. I personally think we can win in 2009 without James Posey because we have that much talent. others I am sure are less positive.

But I am not willing to put an albatross of a contract around the necks of ownership simply because I want to maintain a core that was special for one year. Posey was important. He wasn't that important to be the 4th highest paid player on this team for the next 5 years while slowly becoming th 6th and then 7th and then 8th and then 9th best player on the team.

[Roy Hobbs]

I agree, nick, and more and more fans are coming around.  There's still a strong contingent of "keep Posey at any costs" posters, but I'm confident that Danny is in the fiscally prudent camp.

[TripleOT]

I don't think teams head into 20 year droughts because they gave a $5m Sixth Man type one or two extra years on a contract.  It is important for Ainge to balance long term financial obligations with the need for a strong 2009 roster. 

He did an amazing job putting the Big Three together in a way that allowed for long term success, with an expiring contract in three consecutive years.  Ideally, Ainge will be able to line up all his ducks perfectly for 09 and beyond, but spending a few bucks in four years isn't going to hamstring the team too badly.  I'd trade another championship for two years of overpaying Posey by 40% four and five years from now. 

If the choice is Posey and Maggette both at the entire five years at the MLE, I'd probably take Maggs.  If Maggs goes in a different direction, and the choice is to pay Posey for five years instead of three, or let him go to a rival, I'd pay him. 

[LarBrd33]

yeah i think our attachment to the championship team is making the guy a bit overrated right now.  I would rather have Maggette or even split the MLE to a couple players (backup big man/posey replacement) who can help this team next year. 

[Who]

I'm happy going four years with Posey. Fourth year might be a dodgy but it'll be worth it for the first three.

I don't for a second believe he has 5 year MLE offers elsewhere. If he did, he'd already be gone. He would called Danny and asked if he was going to match, Danny would have given him an answer, and the final decision would be made one way or another. He doesn't have it. Can he get it? Eh, probably not. Could see him getting 3-4 years though.

[timepiece33]

I don't think teams head into 20 year droughts because they gave a $5m Sixth Man type one or two extra years on a contract.  It is important for Ainge to balance long term financial obligations with the need for a strong 2009 roster. 

He did an amazing job putting the Big Three together in a way that allowed for long term success, with an expiring contract in three consecutive years.

IMO, it is about balancing the needs across the board.  As a percentage of the cap, Bruce Bowen was a similar risk at the same age.  Would San Antonio have won the championships they did without this role player?  You have to make calculated choices AND the choices you make with this roster are different than the one's you made with the Celtics of two years ago. 

Right now, I feel there is a segment of the board that is underrating James Posey in the terms of fiscal prudence. 

Obviously, Maggette is the best case scenario ... but if that doesn't happen (and I'd say there is a higher percentage that it doesn't than does), I believe Posey at the MLE for 3 years makes a ton of sense.  It is timed with Pierce's contract. 4 years?  That's questionable. I might look at Pietrus at that point ... however, we really don't have much cap flexibility until two of the big three come off AND honestly, I hope we will handle expiring contracts as a mechanism to revitalize our team than overpay in free agency.   

Splitting the MLE at this point with the talent that is available in free agency would be a mistake.  Use the MLE, the LLE, and either non Birds Rights OR leverage our potential to win a championship to get players to sign for the minimum (like we did with Sam Cassell and PJ Brown).   No need to separate the MLE and take two risks instead of one sure thing.  Not at this point.

BTW, one could argue that the acquisition and extension of Kevin Garnett was economic suicide.   

[wdleehi]

I think they can replace him and still be the favorite to win. 

[timepiece33]

I think they can replace him and still be the favorite to win.

If we sign Maggette, we might be the favorite to win over the Lakers ... but right now, I believe the Lakers will be the favorite to win even if we do.

If San Antonio signs Maggette, I could see them getting better odds than us. 

[RockinRyA]

I just finished reading Jeff's excellent article on the front page talking about where Posey and Maggette might make their decisions to play next year and for years to come. Something in the article got me to thinking:

The Boston Celtics may have tipped their hand too early with James Posey, when news of contact with Corey Maggette surfaced, Posey's camp got on the offensive opening talks with a number of interested teams including the Lakers. Sources close to the situation say if Boston does not come with a full boat (5-year) deal at the Mid Level, James has that from other teams.

http://celticsblog.com/

James Posey already has a 5-year full MLE from other teams and is expecting the same thing from the Celtics in order to sign here?

Big Game James is the man and proved that all year. But during the playoffs guarding some quicker, faster, younger men, Big Game James proved he was a 31 year old man who may already reached the peak of his abilities and may have skills on the decline.

Posey was getting abused at times by LeBron and Josh Smith because their first step was so quick and they already had their position established before Posey could react. He performed better against Kobe but he was really the third option on guarding Kobe whereas he was a first or second option on LeBron and Smith.

This is a situation and ability that does not get better when you go from 31 to 32.

And yet James Posey is telling Danny Ainge that he wants a 5 year, $27.6 million contract that at the age of 37 will be paying a player, who will never have started for this team other than in emergency situation, $8.8 million for possibly being at that time the 3rd or 4th player off the bench?

Is retaining James Posey and what many appear the best chance of repreating worth having another aging overpaid player. We have Pierce and KG locked up into their mid 30's at near max money.

Are we assuring another 20 year drought by being fiscally foolish now because we are sentimentally attched to the 2008 Boston Celtics players?

My opinion is that I love James Posey but I would not lock him in at max MLE cash for anything more than 3 years. If he wants more, focus on Mickael Pietrus with the full MLE. He's as good a defender as Posey, plays the same position, can shoot, has 3 point range though it's not a huge part of his game, and he's only 28 years old.

That of course is if Corey Maggette doesn't sign for the full MLE. He's 29, a starter on every other team in the league and can be here as well if Doc ever wanted to start a small, stop-me-if-you-can, scoring team of KG, Maggette, Pierce, Allen and Rondo(that's a scary thought to 29 other head coaches across the league), if tremendously more talented than Posey and could bridge a gap to future long term success.

Maggette and Pietrus are fiscally smart investments toward longer term success for the club. Posey, to me isn't. I think it is incumbant upon Danny to not make the mistake of becoming so sentimentally attached to 2008 that it will hurt 2011-2015. We may care more about 2009. I personally think we can win in 2009 without James Posey because we have that much talent. others I am sure are less positive.

But I am not willing to put an albatross of a contract around the necks of ownership simply because I want to maintain a core that was special for one year. Posey was important. He wasn't that important to be the 4th highest paid player on this team for the next 5 years while slowly becoming th 6th and then 7th and then 8th and then 9th best player on the team.

exactly. thats too long a contract. i wouldnt have him here for more than PP

[nickagneta]

I don't think teams head into 20 year droughts because they gave a $5m Sixth Man type one or two extra years on a contract.  It is important for Ainge to balance long term financial obligations with the need for a strong 2009 roster. 

He did an amazing job putting the Big Three together in a way that allowed for long term success, with an expiring contract in three consecutive years.  Ideally, Ainge will be able to line up all his ducks perfectly for 09 and beyond, but spending a few bucks in four years isn't going to hamstring the team too badly.  I'd trade another championship for two years of overpaying Posey by 40% four and five years from now. 

If the choice is Posey and Maggette both at the entire five years at the MLE, I'd probably take Maggs.  If Maggs goes in a different direction, and the choice is to pay Posey for five years instead of three, or let him go to a rival, I'd pay him. 

I think you are wrong and this is why.

The cap for the next 5 years or so will be increasing from it's present level to around $66 million in 5 years, maybe. That's an assumption based on regular increases. With the players already under contract the position that signing Posey long term to full MLE tremondously hampers this team.

Look here:

http://www.sportstwo.com/NBA/TeamSalaries/BOSTON

For the 2009-2010 season we are already projected to be nearly $5 million over the cap and have only 5 players signed. Posey would put us at the luxury tax limit with only 6 players signed.

In 2010-2011 when Allens' contract goes off the books this team would at present time have only 5 players signed and be nearly at the cap. Allen's salary does not mean we have that money to sign someone to replace him. It may at that time not even get us to a position of being under the cap.

Danny needs to use his MLEs over the next few years to bridge the talent gap into the next decade to keep this team competitive. The MLEs will have to be used on players who's skills and ability will need to be on the increase, not on the decrease, as James Posey's skills already are. The MLE over the next 5 years will be the only enticement we have to lure high quality players here. If we are going to clog up the payroll, let it be with younger players on the rise and not older players on the downside of their careers.

Otherwise come 2012 this team will be in the luxury tax paying a 36 year old James Posey $8 million to be injured or a bench fixture and another $8 million to the league. I'd rather be paying that to a player in their late 20s to early 30's who would still be a contributing member of this team.

The 2 extra years to a James Posey that will be useless for those two years could cost us players that will help us greatly.

Look at it this way. We pay Posey the cash but because of declining skills we don't win another title and because of the luxury tax, ownership decides they aren't spending anymore because it's just good money going after bad money. Suddenly the Celtics go into let's try to get under the cap to sign guys mode. That mode is very tough to get past for another title. Because Danny isn't signing someone with the MLE that could be a starter after the Big Three tail off this team could be doomed because ownership might pull the financial plug due to lack of being able to get another championship.

There's a chance of it happening.

We need players to grow getting the MLE full boat not guys that might help to repeat and then grow old doing nothing for this team for the final few years on their contract.

[beantownboy171]

i want maggete, but i think thats just cuz i like seeing new players

[timepiece33]

Posey was getting abused at times by LeBron and Josh Smith because their first step was so quick and they already had their position established before Posey could react. He performed better against Kobe but he was really the third option on guarding Kobe whereas he was a first or second option on LeBron and Smith.

Lebron James shot .366 (.484) and had 1.4 more turnovers a game than we saw in the regular season.   Not sure at times "abused" by James is an accurate statement and even if it was ... this is the best talent in the NBA.

Smith, at times, abused all of our big men.

I don't want a 5 year contract.  I still feel he will be effective at 35, but I'd prefer a 3 year contract AND would be willing to pursue Pietrus on a 3 year deal if 5 is the demand.  4?  That's a little more dicey. 

[cordobes]

I've written this in another thread but it fits here:

I have serious doubts that Maggette's points can make up for this. In fact, it's very possible we can become a less efficient offensive team, simply because we can't get so many stops (assuming Maggette is indeed a bad defensive player, I'll come back to this).

Also, we don't have so many good defensive players like you seem to think. Maybe Giddens can be one but he's only a rookie by now. At this moment, without Posey and PJ (who played a very specific defensive role), Scal is our best defensive player coming off the bench.

A specialist wing defender is very, very important in the NBA (because of the refereeing "orientations"). Who was the last team to win a championship without a lockdown perimeter defender? Posey, Bowen, Prince, Devean...  That's how important a defensive wing player is these days.

Also, about this:

Posey was getting abused at times by LeBron and Josh Smith because their first step was so quick and they already had their position established before Posey could react. He performed better against Kobe but he was really the third option on guarding Kobe whereas he was a first or second option on LeBron and Smith.

Everyone gets abused at times against those players (and take not that you included a 2, a 3 and a 4 - a good example of Posey's unique defensive versatility), especially if they gain position. The goal is to take them out of their comfort zone and force them to make mistakes.

Here are some stats:

Smith:              PPG     %FG     TO
series vs. Boston   15.7    0.398   3.7
regular season      17.2    0.457   3

James:              PPG     %FG     TO
series vs. Boston   26.7    0.355   5.3
series vs. Wash.    29.8    0.483   2.8
regular season      30.0    0.484   3.4

If Posey was the first and second option defending these guys, whether he did a very good job or the other guys guarding them were absolutely stellar.

With that being said, I agree that giving Posey the full-MLE for 5 years wouldn't be smart. But giving him a 5 years NBE deal would be great and I wouldn't rule out a 4 year full-MLE just yet. Having a big expiring contract in 5 years won't be an economic suicide.

Don't fool yourself with scoring and offensive prowess. If we sign Maggette, and assuming we don't bring anyone else, we are going to try something that hasn't been done in the league for a long time: winning it all without a great defensive role-player in your roster.

p.s. - With all due respect, Pietrus is not half of the player Posey is. He is one of the dumbest players in the league and that costs points and wins.

[TradeProposalDude]

Economic suicide is well worth it if the approach being employed towards accomplishing the ultimate goal, which is winning a title, is reasonable. Whomever the Celtics end up with in the pool of prospect free agent signings, it is certain that barring injuries, the Celtics will still contend for title #18.

I agree with the general idea that money cannot be thrown towards player(s) that don't fulfill complementary "helper" roles that the MLE is designed for players both over and under the cap to acquire with. But this is a unique situation involving two drastically different players - one of whom is a role player, and the other of whom is a legitimate scoring option and talent.

James Posey, in my mind, is not worth four or five years at the full MLE. Was he an important piece to our team, and our terrific team defense that stonewalled some of the league's best offensive teams and players? Absolutely. But are players of his overall combination of talent, skills, abilities, and understanding easy to get? You know, come to think of it, I'm not so sure Posey is all that irreplaceable. He is what he is, after all - a role player.

Ask yourself this: Would the Celtics decline from last season if they were to sign James Jones at a much cheaper price to step into shoes Posey left from this past year's title team, and therein, be able to use the remaining portion of the MLE on other players who provide additional depth and insurance for worst case scenarios?

That's just one example though. I don't think either Maggette or Posey will sign with us, so alternative possibilities must be thought out before other contending teams lay their hands on potential targets of ours. Provided that Maggette is indeed interesting in signing for the MLE though (assuming he is, which again I don't think he really is), just imagine how lethal the Celtics would be.

It is my general belief that defensive role players who give you "intangibles" are much easier to come by than dynamic offensive talents like Maggette, who do everything on the offensive end of the floor, including getting to the charity stripe at will.

He would not only be a great insurance policy for if something happens to Allen or Pierce, he would provide the second unit with a boost in offense that was severely lacking at times during our season when the offense would run into droughts and the other team would suck the energy out of our guts and go on runs that resulted in wins.

[nickagneta]

Posey was getting abused at times by LeBron and Josh Smith because their first step was so quick and they already had their position established before Posey could react. He performed better against Kobe but he was really the third option on guarding Kobe whereas he was a first or second option on LeBron and Smith.

Lebron James shot .366 (.484) and had 1.4 more turnovers a game than we saw in the regular season.   Not sure at times "abused" by James is an accurate statement and even if it was ... this is the best talent in the NBA.

Smith, at times, abused all of our big men.

I don't want a 5 year contract.  I still feel he will be effective at 35, but I'd prefer a 3 year contract AND would be willing to pursue Pietrus on a 3 year deal if 5 is the demand.  4?  That's a little more dicey. 

Posey's defense against LeBron was bad. LeBron had shooting problems but Doc was constantly switching Pierce back onto LeBron and got Posey off LeBron because LeBron was being effective against Posey. LeBron's struggles were against Pierce.

LeBron's numbers for the series do not accurately show what was happening specifically when Posey was guarding Lebron. It was considered one of Doc's smarter moves of the playoffs to stick with Pierce on LeBron instead of the more conventional decision of Posey because of how much better Pierce was playing him.

I agree a 3 year MLE would be much smarter. My problem is with the final 2 years especially considering the fact there are other young, talented, defensively oriented SFs out there that may come cheaper or at the very least theoretically play effectively longer due to age considerations.