cordobes said:
I like CDR, but he's being overrated here. He benefited immensely from the system Calipari runs in Memphis, with all that penetration and kick out (Brokeback Mountain, as Phil said). Perimeter defenders in the NBA are much more quick recovering than those that CDR faced in college, so it won't be so easy for him to step past them or take open shots. I think this question has merits: would he be such a good slasher without a pg that didn't demand so much help defense in the lane like Rose did? Also, he'll have to read screens and post up in the NBA and I don't know if he's good doing that. I mean, can he create his own shot in another type of offense? I don't know... and neither does he, I guess. Anyway, if we draft him, I'll watch his games again to form a more solid opinion, as I was more interested in Rose the first time.
My educated guess: CDR is not as good as he looks. If I was giving him a workout, I'd like to see how well does he screen, posts, reads screens, how really good is his first step, etc. If he didn't workout well, I can easily understand why he fell.
Chalmers...because they like Pruitt.
I've never seen JR Giddens play and I don't like to form opinions by reading public reports. I know he was conference co-Player of the Year with Cummard and I know Cummard is a good basketball player.
He's got 3 years of great production by every metric available (almost every advanced stat dude loves him), whereas Gidden has 4 years of bad production by the same metrics.
Epic fail.
Link?
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/J.R.-Giddens-74/stats/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Chris-Douglas-Roberts-506/stats/
Yeps, but in spite of that, lots of statistic driven teams, including Boston, passed on him. I'm a statistics guy myself, but there are things that stats can't tell: was he productive because of the system and teammates or is he really good?
Calipari's system is very uncommon in the NBA. Which NBA team wants a winger who have trouble reading screens? Who doesn't run off pindowns? Who doesn't have a great courtvision? Who relies heavily in slashing but doesn't have a good enough first step?
What's funny about this is the Celtics offense IS dribble drive motion oriented. It's a little bit toned down, and it tends to break down if Rondo is out or we're just in one of our offensive funks, but by and large it's our offensive philosophy. http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com/2008/02/celtics-dribble-drive-motion-offense.html
As for the notion that Giddens > CDR because of workouts.. man I hate that. Workouts are way less meaningful than college production.
But I am warming up to Giddens.. hearing good things from lots of sources, Danny's late round draft record.. could just be something we're all missing. But I still think he won't shoot worth a [dang]. Hopefully he can still get to the rim.
I know what kind of offenses the Celtics play... and to some extent, that's why I always said that I liked CDR on the Celtics, I think he would fit well (even though the dribble drive motion is not "by and large our offensive philosophy"). But the dribble drive motion we play it's far from being the exact same offense they run in Memphis. I mean, there are dozens of motion offenses. John Calipari uses Coach Wahlburg's offense, where screening is virtually nonexistent. Nobody plays like that in the NBA. The wingers have patterned passing lanes. Nobody plays like that in the NBA. And essentially, NBA defenders are so exponentially better than college ones that the comparison lacks sense.
I think that workouts are very important for a player like CDR. If I was a GM, I'd be designing especial drills for him: running off quick hitting screens and pindowns, fighting through screens in the defensive end, read screens and do the cut, posting up, screen/rolls, etc.
In the end, CDR may very well be a player that isn't exceptionally quick or athletic for NBA standards, but relies heavily in his quickness and athleticism. If he performed poorly in the workouts, that's probably the case.
I always thought he could be a Jim Jackson kind of player, but after learning he was crap in workouts - and being pretty sure about what kind of workouts teams made him face - I think he should probably play in the NBDL next season.