My guess is Ariza will stay on LA. I think he still has Bird rights, since he was acquired via trade, and with their SF problems, I don't see them letting one who actually can play walk away.
Posey has to be the number one goal in free agency. I'd give him whatever it takes. TO be honest, I still can't talk about what we should do if Posey walks. He's essential to this team. If he leaves, I'll think about it. Until then, no. I'd start by offering him the most we can give him without affecting the MLE - we can give him a 20% raise up to about 3.8 million, with 8 % raises after that. I think it comes out to 5 years, $22.5 million. I'd make that offer and see if he wants to just guarantee he gets $20 million for the next 5 years. Of course, if he sees a 4 year, 22 million offer, we have to match. I will find a way to understand if the ballclub says we just can't afford to give our entire MLE to Posey, but until that happens, do what it takes.
Problem is, if Posey takes up close to if not the whole MLE, our only options at the center positions guys who will take the veterans minimum - think PJ Brown, Theo Ratliff - or the LLE - pretty much the same group. Same with the backup point position. If House won't take an offer starting at 1.8 mil (most we can offer without using exceptions), he's gone and we're left with Sam I Am (who will stay if we offer him the minimum) or Darrell Armstrong.
I agree we stick with what worked. Give Posey what it takes, hopefully he leaves us a little bit of MLE room. Make a qualifying offer to TA and nobody will touch him - maybe we can even keep him cheaper than that. Hope Eddie will go for a 3 year deal starting at 1.8 (about 5.8-5.9 total). Biggest problem will be backup center, but hopefully we can sort that out with a rookie and a vet.
