Author Topic: KG's Clutchness  (Read 4257 times)

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KG's Clutchness
« on: June 07, 2008, 02:54:06 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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Even huge KG supporters like myself have to say he doesn't generally take over down the stretch on the offensive end, but I think his "clutch" play is vastly underestimated because there's no statistical measure of what he does on the defensive end at the end of games.

The Celtics missed chances to put Game 1 away in part because KG missed all 5 jumpshots he took when he entered the game with 10 minutes to go (though he did have an assist, the monster putback dunk, and got to the line once, making both). Not a great offensive performance in the clutch. And that's to be expected. Like it or not, Kevin Garnett is more a jump shooter than a post player. We can want that to be different all day, but it's not changing. As a jump shooter, it's less what he's doing to create space than whether the shot is going down. He generally gets about 20-25 points a night. Sometimes, those points come in the 1st when his shot's going down. Sometimes it's in the 2nd or 3rd, sometimes it's in the 4th. But it's just about whether the shot's going down.

That's why I don't get why so many think "we have to get the ball to KG in the post in the fourth quarter." Look, if his shot is going down, yeah, feed the hot hand, but if you don't know, why force it to him? He's an excellent jump shooter for a seven-footer, but he's not an excellent jump shooter compared to Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. If I had to choose one of those guys to take an open 15 to 20 footer, it's Ray. If I have to choose one to post and take a fallaway jumper, it's Paul. If I had to choose one to take it to the basket, it's Paul. We shouldn't necessarily force it to KG in the post because it's not our most efficient offense. In fact, it's probably best for our offense when he gets it if a double comes in and he can find an open shooter for a 3 in the corner (the second most efficient shot in basketball besides a layup).

The other factors in KG not necessarily being the best offensive option down the stretch are that he expends a great deal of his energy on the defensive end and the glass, and we're better off with him in position for rebounding.

Look at his defensive performance down the stretch in Game 1. Pau Gasol came in with 8:41 left in the game. The game was pretty close for the rest of the game, with the Celtics' lead generally ranging from 4 to 8 points. But in that time, Pau Gasol only got two offensive chances - he missed one 17 footer and got to the line once on a foul by KG (making 1 of 2). Lamar Odom was in the game until 2 minutes left, when the Lakers took him out for Vlad Rad for 3 point shooting purposes. Odom only got in on one offensive play with KG in there - a 3 point play where he drove in for a layup and was fouled by PJ Brown.

That defensive dominance (the Celtics only allowed 15 4th quarter points to the best offense in the NBA featuring the best 4th quarter offensive player in the NBA) in the most clutch situation is what won the game. And KG doesn't get nearly enough media attention and credit for the fact that he leads the Celtics to really clamp down on the defensive end in such situations.

Think back to Game 6 against Detroit. Our offense did get more scoring in the 4th, but a lot of that was brought on by the fact that we only allowed the Pistons 13 4th quarter points in that clinching game. KG has been rising that 4th quarter defensive intensity. It might not happen in every game, but in the last 2 games, that 4th quarter D has won essential playoff games for us.

To me, that's what we should focus on when it comes to analyzing KG in the clutch, not just his offensive stats. I'd be willing to bet that during the Spurs run, for all the credit Robert Horry gets for big shots, Tim Duncan's defense ramped up considerably in the 4th quarter. That kind of stuff doesn't get a player credit for "clutchness" but I'm starting to think that might be unfair to the other side of basketball which is just as important to closing out and winning games.
Go Celtics.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2008, 03:04:21 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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At this point, if KG leads this team through three quarters and Pierce leads this team through the forth, I will be happy. 

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2008, 03:12:48 PM »

Offline CelticsPrideKG

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How quickly some forget Game 1 vs. Cleveland . . . and if we lost that game we're talking about the draft right now.


He's had times in his career where he has been clutch, he's had times when he hasn't been.  Most of the time the latter is from him not being aggressive enough in the paint.  However, those buckets down the stretch against Cleveland in Game 1 were a thing of beauty and allowed us to win the game.


People have really short memories.  To see what he's perfectly capable of go watch 2004 WC Semi's vs. the Kings in Game 7.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2008, 03:16:59 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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I'm not saying he can't be clutch offensively, I'm just saying it comes down to whether his shot's going down, and if you're relying on a jump shooting player to be your clutch scorer, why not make it one of your two best shooters? I love the ABC announcing crew, but it was simply their statements that the Celtics "need" to feed KG in the post. They need to feed KG in the post if he's in close with a good matchup. But if he's not, then we "need" to have it in the hands of our best scorer, Paul Pierce.

Also, I'm trying to say that nationally (and among some Boston people), KG's clutchness is vastly underestimated because of a failure to credit him for the way he brings his defensive game up even more when it counts.
Go Celtics.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2008, 03:26:36 PM »

Offline CelticsPrideKG

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I'm not saying he can't be clutch offensively, I'm just saying it comes down to whether his shot's going down, and if you're relying on a jump shooting player to be your clutch scorer, why not make it one of your two best shooters? I love the ABC announcing crew, but it was simply their statements that the Celtics "need" to feed KG in the post. They need to feed KG in the post if he's in close with a good matchup. But if he's not, then we "need" to have it in the hands of our best scorer, Paul Pierce.

Also, I'm trying to say that nationally (and among some Boston people), KG's clutchness is vastly underestimated because of a failure to credit him for the way he brings his defensive game up even more when it counts.


I definitely agree with you regarding clutch can be a number of attributes and scoring is just one of them.  However, the big basket in the Cleveland Game 1 WAS a basket in the paint after KG got aggressive.  I see KG as more of a hybrid player than the "jumpshooter" label some have given him.  My biggest problem sometimes is that he starts off the game aggressive in the paint but seems to lose the aggressiveness in the paint later in the game.  I think in games where he makes a determined effort to dominate the paint late in games he is as capable as almost anyone.  I would have loved to see him realize his jumper was off and try more aggressive moves in the 2nd half on Thursday and I expect him to realize this watching film and continue what was working in the first half for an entire game on Sunday.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2008, 03:31:18 PM »

Offline Barnabas

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KG lost his touch towards the end there, but there could be a number of possible reasons for that (I'm sure I can't see them because I'm not a coach).  Maybe he got tired, as a lot of people here have observed.  After all, he was matched up with a bigger player for most of the game.  That has to take a lot of energy.  Maybe the Lakers tightened up their coverage.  Maybe he should have gotten the ball in the paint more, instead of shooting jumpers when the first two didn't go in.  I'm not sure it's clutchiness or the lack thereof that messed him up.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2008, 03:33:42 PM »

Offline CelticsPrideKG

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I would also say that was a pretty "clutch" dagger + an exclaimation point with that put back dunk over Gasol when the Lakers still had a shot if they got that rebound.  (Nice box out Pau)

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2008, 04:24:42 PM »

Offline drza44

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I keep ending up in variations of this same discussion over the last two days.  For some reason, nobody seems to agree with what I think I've seen this postseason.  I like to think I argue objectively, and not just off emotion, so, here is some of the 4th quarter information from this playoffs...it seems to me to support the notion that KG has been a pretty good 4th quarter scoring option this postseason.

1) KG is leading the Celtics in 4th quarter scoring this postseason, by like a lot.  He has more than 30 more 4th quarter points in the playoffs than Pierce.

2) Going into game 1 of the Finals KG was shooting 58% in 4th quarters, Pierce was shooting 35% 4th quarters.  KG had a cold night on Thursday, but I'm sure he is still shooting about 20% higher in 4th quarters than Pierce is.

3) Pierce only has five 4th quarters this whole postseason with more than 4 points.  KG has 10 4th quarters this postseason with more than 4 points.  Pierce only has two 4th quarters with 8 or more points, KG has 5 such 4th quarters this postseason.

And this is just looking at scoring, not even things like rebounds and defense and hustle plays where one would expect KG to have an advantage.

This isn't to take anything away from Pierce, as I think he is absolutely vital to everything that the Celtics do.  I just don't understand why is it just considered a known fact that Pierce always carries the offense in the 4th quarters, when for the most part this postseason that just hasn't been true.  KG has consistently been the best 4th quarter scorer on the Celtics, so why do most people continue to assume he's the weakest 4th quarter link of the PGA tour? 

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2008, 04:39:41 PM »

Offline NoraG1

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I keep ending up in variations of this same discussion over the last two days.  For some reason, nobody seems to agree with what I think I've seen this postseason.  I like to think I argue objectively, and not just off emotion, so, here is some of the 4th quarter information from this playoffs...it seems to me to support the notion that KG has been a pretty good 4th quarter scoring option this postseason.

1) KG is leading the Celtics in 4th quarter scoring this postseason, by like a lot.  He has more than 30 more 4th quarter points in the playoffs than Pierce.

2) Going into game 1 of the Finals KG was shooting 58% in 4th quarters, Pierce was shooting 35% 4th quarters.  KG had a cold night on Thursday, but I'm sure he is still shooting about 20% higher in 4th quarters than Pierce is.

3) Pierce only has five 4th quarters this whole postseason with more than 4 points.  KG has 10 4th quarters this postseason with more than 4 points.  Pierce only has two 4th quarters with 8 or more points, KG has 5 such 4th quarters this postseason.

And this is just looking at scoring, not even things like rebounds and defense and hustle plays where one would expect KG to have an advantage.

This isn't to take anything away from Pierce, as I think he is absolutely vital to everything that the Celtics do.  I just don't understand why is it just considered a known fact that Pierce always carries the offense in the 4th quarters, when for the most part this postseason that just hasn't been true.  KG has consistently been the best 4th quarter scorer on the Celtics, so why do most people continue to assume he's the weakest 4th quarter link of the PGA tour? 

Unfortunately it is a label people have given him which seems to never go away  even with evidence to show that it is not quite true.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2008, 04:47:15 PM »

Offline CelticsPrideKG

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I keep ending up in variations of this same discussion over the last two days.  For some reason, nobody seems to agree with what I think I've seen this postseason.  I like to think I argue objectively, and not just off emotion, so, here is some of the 4th quarter information from this playoffs...it seems to me to support the notion that KG has been a pretty good 4th quarter scoring option this postseason.

1) KG is leading the Celtics in 4th quarter scoring this postseason, by like a lot.  He has more than 30 more 4th quarter points in the playoffs than Pierce.

2) Going into game 1 of the Finals KG was shooting 58% in 4th quarters, Pierce was shooting 35% 4th quarters.  KG had a cold night on Thursday, but I'm sure he is still shooting about 20% higher in 4th quarters than Pierce is.

3) Pierce only has five 4th quarters this whole postseason with more than 4 points.  KG has 10 4th quarters this postseason with more than 4 points.  Pierce only has two 4th quarters with 8 or more points, KG has 5 such 4th quarters this postseason.

And this is just looking at scoring, not even things like rebounds and defense and hustle plays where one would expect KG to have an advantage.

This isn't to take anything away from Pierce, as I think he is absolutely vital to everything that the Celtics do.  I just don't understand why is it just considered a known fact that Pierce always carries the offense in the 4th quarters, when for the most part this postseason that just hasn't been true.  KG has consistently been the best 4th quarter scorer on the Celtics, so why do most people continue to assume he's the weakest 4th quarter link of the PGA tour? 

Good analysis.  Garnett also had some really big buckets down the stretch in Game 6 against Detroit that not many seemed to talk about.  I have never bought into the KG is not clutch theory, the fact is all the clutch performers you think about are mostly perimeter players that can create their own shot.

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2008, 01:52:55 AM »

Offline Sweet17

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KG is fine in the clutch. The truth is - it's bad basketball to have one "go-to" guy in the clutch. This is what the media buys into and it's going to eventually be revealed as a mistake. You should try to get your best players GOOD shots - if you can't do this get your roleplayers GREAT shots.

MJ's skill level was so high that it's colored what people think about basketball in a lot of negative ways. Teams shouldn't try to mimic Jordan because they don't have a Jordan.

Pete

Re: KG's Clutchness
« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2008, 03:22:56 AM »

Offline Big Ticket

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I keep ending up in variations of this same discussion over the last two days.  For some reason, nobody seems to agree with what I think I've seen this postseason.  I like to think I argue objectively, and not just off emotion, so, here is some of the 4th quarter information from this playoffs...it seems to me to support the notion that KG has been a pretty good 4th quarter scoring option this postseason.

1) KG is leading the Celtics in 4th quarter scoring this postseason, by like a lot.  He has more than 30 more 4th quarter points in the playoffs than Pierce.

2) Going into game 1 of the Finals KG was shooting 58% in 4th quarters, Pierce was shooting 35% 4th quarters.  KG had a cold night on Thursday, but I'm sure he is still shooting about 20% higher in 4th quarters than Pierce is.

3) Pierce only has five 4th quarters this whole postseason with more than 4 points.  KG has 10 4th quarters this postseason with more than 4 points.  Pierce only has two 4th quarters with 8 or more points, KG has 5 such 4th quarters this postseason.

And this is just looking at scoring, not even things like rebounds and defense and hustle plays where one would expect KG to have an advantage.

This isn't to take anything away from Pierce, as I think he is absolutely vital to everything that the Celtics do.  I just don't understand why is it just considered a known fact that Pierce always carries the offense in the 4th quarters, when for the most part this postseason that just hasn't been true.  KG has consistently been the best 4th quarter scorer on the Celtics, so why do most people continue to assume he's the weakest 4th quarter link of the PGA tour? 

Preach on, brother!


"It ain't about me.  It's about us."  - KG, interview with John Thompson, 2005 All Star Game.