Did C's drop the ball this off-season?

[Vermont Green]

Parsing from byennie post:

Brad thought: Jaylen needs to go, he's not a supermax guy, we're hosed if we keep him, my analytics tell me...

I agree with this.  BOS came to the conclusion that they had gone as far as they were going to go with Brown on a max deal and what they would be able to put around Brown and Tatum, and did not want to extend him and lock in 5 more years of more or less the status quo.  They decided to try and trade him for Giannis, and maybe some other teams prior to that.

Brad also thought: Jaylen is a Finals MVP, All-Star, marketable, in his prime, and SOMEONE is going to pay a star price for him,

Also agree, based on what MEM got for Bane, why wouldn't BOS feel they could get at least as much for Brown?  I guess all the other teams have analytics departments too and they all came to the same conclusion as BOS, Brown is a great player, but not a player you want on a Max deal for 5 years.  Bane makes a lot less ($39M to $58M).  I think that is the obvious difference here in how the two players were valued.

Just because Brad may have overplayed his hand, doesn't mean more was available.

Exactly, I don't know but I don't see why a team that liked Brown but didn't think he was worth (4) firsts wouldn't still try beat the PHI offer.  I think what happened was that things were sort of OK last season when maybe BOS and GSW talked.  But with all the hoopla around the Giannis trade, Brown got miffed (understandably), maybe started going around telling teams he wouldn't extend (possible including MIL), and Brad/Owners got to the point of just wanting to trade him, potentially leading to them taking less than the absolute best possible deal had they waited (the last part is speculation, no one can know this part either way).

[jambr380]

If the Celtics got the 76ers 2027 first round pick as well, would folks be happy with the trade?

Maybe a little bit, but I think it's weird that the Celtics didn't at least get Philon out of the deal. Dude is going to be buried on the Philly bench anyway and he'd have been a nice prospect for us to get.

On a different note, Noa Dalzell has said she heard about other offers that potentially sounded better. Other front offices have said that they were surprised that the Celtics preferred Philly's deal over theirs.

I think Brad thinks he really parsed out this particular deal to be as advantageous as possible - even the best of several teams' 2nds. I think he even sees the value in Paul George over other potential contract matches coming back. We'll see if it all works out, but I agree that even though I was ready to move on from Jaylen, the value in return was disappointing. And the fact that Philly landed Lebron because of us is lame.

[Who]

If the Celtics got the 76ers 2027 first round pick as well, would folks be happy with the trade?

Maybe a little bit, but I think it's weird that the Celtics didn't at least get Philon out of the deal. Dude is going to be buried on the Philly bench anyway and he'd have been a nice prospect for us to get.

On a different note, Noa Dalzell has said she heard about other offers that potentially sounded better. Other front offices have said that they were surprised that the Celtics preferred Philly's deal over theirs.

I think Brad thinks he really parsed out this particular deal to be as advantageous as possible - even the best of several teams' 2nds. I think he even sees the value in Paul George over other potential contract matches coming back. We'll see if it all works out, but I agree that even though I was ready to move on from Jaylen, the value in return was disappointing. And the fact that Philly landed Lebron because of us is lame.

Yeah, I think Brad sees real value in PG13 as a Theo Ratliff contract trade piece. To match monies for a superstar.

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It is a trade package to setup a future trade rather than a trade that gives us the best win-now package. So I imagine there were several other offers that were better win-now deals.

The future trade is the Theo Ratliff contract (PG13) + the two first round picks which can be combined with our other assets (young role players, future picks).

[Roy H.]

If the Celtics got the 76ers 2027 first round pick as well, would folks be happy with the trade?

Maybe a little bit, but I think it's weird that the Celtics didn't at least get Philon out of the deal. Dude is going to be buried on the Philly bench anyway and he'd have been a nice prospect for us to get.

On a different note, Noa Dalzell has said she heard about other offers that potentially sounded better. Other front offices have said that they were surprised that the Celtics preferred Philly's deal over theirs.

I think Brad thinks he really parsed out this particular deal to be as advantageous as possible - even the best of several teams' 2nds. I think he even sees the value in Paul George over other potential contract matches coming back. We'll see if it all works out, but I agree that even though I was ready to move on from Jaylen, the value in return was disappointing. And the fact that Philly landed Lebron because of us is lame.

Yeah, I think Brad sees real value in PG13 as a Theo Ratliff contract trade piece. To match monies for a superstar.

-----------

It is a trade package to setup a future trade rather than a trade that gives us the best win-now package. So I imagine there were several other offers that were better win-now deals.

The future trade is the Theo Ratliff contract (PG13) + the two first round picks which can be combined with our other assets (young role players, future picks).

Let's hope so.  The problem with PG's contract is that it's so big that it might preclude a lot of teams from taking it on in a 1-for-1 deal. 

A lot of teams will be hard-capped at the first apron, as we've seen this off-season.  In almost every 1-for-1 deal, the other team would be taking back more salary than it sent out, which isn't a positive for a hard-capped team.

Those teams can still do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1, etc., but with those type of deals you sometimes end up with a "3 dimes for a quarter" type of deal.

[jambr380]

If the Celtics got the 76ers 2027 first round pick as well, would folks be happy with the trade?

Maybe a little bit, but I think it's weird that the Celtics didn't at least get Philon out of the deal. Dude is going to be buried on the Philly bench anyway and he'd have been a nice prospect for us to get.

On a different note, Noa Dalzell has said she heard about other offers that potentially sounded better. Other front offices have said that they were surprised that the Celtics preferred Philly's deal over theirs.

I think Brad thinks he really parsed out this particular deal to be as advantageous as possible - even the best of several teams' 2nds. I think he even sees the value in Paul George over other potential contract matches coming back. We'll see if it all works out, but I agree that even though I was ready to move on from Jaylen, the value in return was disappointing. And the fact that Philly landed Lebron because of us is lame.

Yeah, I think Brad sees real value in PG13 as a Theo Ratliff contract trade piece. To match monies for a superstar.

-----------

It is a trade package to setup a future trade rather than a trade that gives us the best win-now package. So I imagine there were several other offers that were better win-now deals.

The future trade is the Theo Ratliff contract (PG13) + the two first round picks which can be combined with our other assets (young role players, future picks).

Let's hope so.  The problem with PG's contract is that it's so big that it might preclude a lot of teams from taking it on in a 1-for-1 deal. 

A lot of teams will be hard-capped at the first apron, as we've seen this off-season.  In almost every 1-for-1 deal, the other team would be taking back more salary than it sent out, which isn't a positive for a hard-capped team.

Those teams can still do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1, etc., but with those type of deals you sometimes end up with a "3 dimes for a quarter" type of deal.

It?s entirely possible that whoever we trade him to might actually want him for a couple of years and we do a sign and trade where he?s making $35M/yr for 2 years instead of $58M for 1 yr.

There are a lot of moving parts to this and a lot could depend on how he actually performs with us. If he?s injured all year, that?s one thing, but if he is like the forward version of Derrick White or Jrue Holiday, that?s entirely different

[Roy H.]

If the Celtics got the 76ers 2027 first round pick as well, would folks be happy with the trade?

Maybe a little bit, but I think it's weird that the Celtics didn't at least get Philon out of the deal. Dude is going to be buried on the Philly bench anyway and he'd have been a nice prospect for us to get.

On a different note, Noa Dalzell has said she heard about other offers that potentially sounded better. Other front offices have said that they were surprised that the Celtics preferred Philly's deal over theirs.

I think Brad thinks he really parsed out this particular deal to be as advantageous as possible - even the best of several teams' 2nds. I think he even sees the value in Paul George over other potential contract matches coming back. We'll see if it all works out, but I agree that even though I was ready to move on from Jaylen, the value in return was disappointing. And the fact that Philly landed Lebron because of us is lame.

Yeah, I think Brad sees real value in PG13 as a Theo Ratliff contract trade piece. To match monies for a superstar.

-----------

It is a trade package to setup a future trade rather than a trade that gives us the best win-now package. So I imagine there were several other offers that were better win-now deals.

The future trade is the Theo Ratliff contract (PG13) + the two first round picks which can be combined with our other assets (young role players, future picks).

Let's hope so.  The problem with PG's contract is that it's so big that it might preclude a lot of teams from taking it on in a 1-for-1 deal. 

A lot of teams will be hard-capped at the first apron, as we've seen this off-season.  In almost every 1-for-1 deal, the other team would be taking back more salary than it sent out, which isn't a positive for a hard-capped team.

Those teams can still do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1, etc., but with those type of deals you sometimes end up with a "3 dimes for a quarter" type of deal.

It?s entirely possible that whoever we trade him to might actually want him for a couple of years and we do a sign and trade where he?s making $35M/yr for 2 years instead of $58M for 1 yr.

There are a lot of moving parts to this and a lot could depend on how he actually performs with us. If he?s injured all year, that?s one thing, but if he is like the forward version of Derrick White or Jrue Holiday, that?s entirely different

I can't imagine that there's a team out there dumb enough to want to voluntarily give PG $35m per year for 40 to 50 games played at the level of a third option. 

And, assuming some weird bizarro world scenario where he plays 75 games at 20ppg, I can't imagine he'd decline his option for that type of deal.  In your scenario he's basically taking a one year, $12 million extension, which doesn't seem smart (particularly because money is worth more the sooner you get it.)

I guess we'll see.  I[m not expecting a ton of interest in Mr. Glass at age 37.  I think that Who is correct in valuing him only for his contract in trades.

[Vermont Green]

In your scenario he's basically taking a one year, $12 million extension, which doesn't seem smart (particularly because money is worth more the sooner you get it.)

That is an interesting way to look at it.  He can pick up the 2027-28 option and get $56.6M for one season plus whatever he might get as a FA in 2028-29 when he will be 38 years old.  He would likely get a lot less than $13.4M I would think.  So he might only end up around $60M total for the two seasons under that scenario.  But if he accepts a 2-year deal that pays him $70M over the two seasons, isn't he coming out ahead?

For BOS, it is kind of like stretching the option season (which is something they could do as well) but by reworking his contract in this way, they at least have a player that may contribute something.  Pay him $35M (just for example) in 2027-28, get what you can out of him, and then in 2028-29, either stretch what is left (I assume BOS could do that) or keep him around.  Either way, it frees up about $20M in 2027-28 but creates some cap hit in 2028-29, and potentially beyond if they stretch him.

[Roy H.]

In your scenario he's basically taking a one year, $12 million extension, which doesn't seem smart (particularly because money is worth more the sooner you get it.)

That is an interesting way to look at it.  He can pick up the 2027-28 option and get $56.6M for one season plus whatever he might get as a FA in 2028-29 when he will be 38 years old.  He would likely get a lot less than $13.4M I would think.

Probably so -- assuming we get 2026 level Paul George -- so why would any team want to take up $35 million of their cap on him in 2029?  You're judging his free agent value as less than $7 million per year, so why would any outside team commit 2 years, $70 million to him in a sign-and-trade? 

But, if he did have some wildly unexpected bounce back year in 2028, I'm sure he could get the full MLE on a one year deal.

Either way, he's not opting out.

[Vermont Green]

In your scenario he's basically taking a one year, $12 million extension, which doesn't seem smart (particularly because money is worth more the sooner you get it.)

That is an interesting way to look at it.  He can pick up the 2027-28 option and get $56.6M for one season plus whatever he might get as a FA in 2028-29 when he will be 38 years old.  He would likely get a lot less than $13.4M I would think.

Probably so -- assuming we get 2026 level Paul George -- so why would any team want to take up $35 million of their cap on him in 2029?  You're judging his free agent value as less than $7 million per year, so why would any outside team commit 2 years, $70 million to him in a sign-and-trade? 

But, if he did have some wildly unexpected bounce back year in 2028, I'm sure he could get the full MLE on a one year deal.

Either way, he's not opting out.

My point has nothing to do with whether or not he is traded.  I don't think he is going to get traded in any case.  This is just a way to manage the cap hit.  If he picks up his option, BOS has two choices, suck it up and pay him, get what you can out of 37 year old Paul George, or stretch him.  But if you offer him a restructuring (like the NFL often does), he gets more money overall but the cap hit is spread out, which may be more advantageous for BOS. 

The most complex version would be to say he takes a 2-year $64M deal over the 1-year $56M.  Make the two years equal and that is $32M in 2027-28  I don't see that as unreasonable that he would consider this.  Let him play out the 2027-28 season (about $24M less cap hit, allows BOS to get a decent player), and then stretch the remaining season (it would be about $10.7M for 3 seasons).  It is just a way to stretch the cap hit out over a longer period of time rather than absorbing the entire $56M cap hit in one season.

As to trading him, I don't think it is likely in any case but trading a $32M expiring contract in 2028 is more likely than trading a $56M expiring contract in 2027.  Still unlikely and not the reason to try and do this.  And if by some miracle, he is still a useful player in 2028 at age 38, great, you have a vet player that may be able to come off the bench (more likely at that point he is just stretched).