Jaylen streaming on Twitch right now talking about the trade and other things

[JBcat]

I?m going to say something that might make it seem like I don?t appreciate JB, because I do, and extremely thankful for his 10 years in Boston and being a part of the 2024 championship team.

Brown was just the best player on a 56 win team with a 35.1 usage rate, the 3rd highest in the NBA, though not a championship caliber team. He has called it his favorite year on more than more occasion, and he loved having the ball in his hands more.

Jayson Tatum is 76-9 (!!) when he has a usage rate of 33% and above in the last 4 seasons, that?s an .89% WIN RATE. I copied that stat from another thread here, can?t remember where.

The Celtics I believe, and rightfully so in my opinion, want to lean into Tatum being the unquestioned number 1 player with being among the top usage rate players in the league. He is just the better all around player.

How does that work with Brown, will he willingly go back to a little lower usage rate with Tatum back in the fold? I?m not so sure if he thinks he is on the same level as Tatum.

I haven?t done a historical review, but it seems very unrealistic to have 2 players pushing mid 30s for a usage rate. I did look at this year?s usage leaders and tried to find 2 players on the same team that had a usage rate of 30 or higher. I see Doncic as the league leader with 36.8, and thought James would be higher but was only at 26.2. Embiid was at 33.6 but in only 38 games played while Maxey was at 28.6. Mitchell was at 31.1 while Harden was at 27.9 though part of the season he was with the Clippers (Garland had 26.6) Jokic was at 28.9 while Murray was at 26.7. Booker was at 30.7 with 64 games played and Green at 30.9 but with only 32 games played, are the only 2 hovering around 30 as teammates but both missed a lot of games combined. I couldn?t find any other 2 teammates that were in this ballpark.

I looked at the previous 4 years for Brown and he was in the 28-30 usage rate range. If the Celtics want to bump Tatum?s usage up and Brown back down would Brown have been fine with that? I haven?t done my doubts.

[Who]

Usage ain't a good stat. It over-states how much Jaylen does on offense. It doesn't include passing. Other players have much higher usage / roles in their team's offense than Jaylen does.

The Thinking Basketball guy has a better stat called offensive load but it is behind a paywall. I am not a subscriber. He also separates general assists from assists created after drawing a double team with the latter kind a much more valuable assist.

Years ago he gave the example of Melo vs Nash. I forget the exact numbers. Melo had a Jaylen-like usage of around 30%. When you included passing he went up to 35-40%. Nash had a low usage (for a star - medium usage for a normal player) 20-23% which went way up above 50% when passing was included. Which is clear to anyone who watched Nash's Suns teams. He had the ball in his hands all the time and created a huge amount of their offense.

* Luka 36.8% usage is probably closer to 60%.
* Jaylen's 35.1% last year is probably in the low 40s.
* Tatum I expect would often be in the low 40s as well. Jaylen's probably goes back down to low to mid 30s when Tatum is around.

There was another example Ben Taylor gave which was the D-Wade / Shaq partnership. Wade's offensive load would go up to 55% or so when Shaq was out and decline back to around 45% when Shaq played during their title contending years. Something like that. Tatum will get a bump without Jaylen around just as Jaylen got a bump last season without Tatum around.

Overall, Jaylen's usage / offensive role is not nearly as large as that stat "usage" makes it out to be. It over-states players like Jaylen and understates the usage / offensive load of playmakers. Jokic for example would have a huge offensive load. Probably 55%. Not 26.8% usage. Which makes far more sense since their entire offense revolves around him. Boston's does not revolve around Jaylen. Not even last season when Tatum was out.

[JBcat]

Thanks Who, I?m actually a subscriber to Thinking Basketball. I?ll try to check out the offensive load stat sometime this weekend.

[jambr380]

Jaylen's comments were overwhelmingly criticized on Reddit. Hundreds of comments basically telling Jaylen to stop whining about not becoming a basketball player and how he's making hundreds of millions of dollars.

I believe the team wanted out of the Jaylen Brown business on the basketball court, but I also believe they wanted out of the Jaylen Brown business with his off the court comments. No, he's not a criminal, and of course he does a lot of great things in the community, but it's probably a relief to the front office not having to worry what Jaylen might say next.

[Vermont Green]

Usage ain't a good stat. It over-states how much Jaylen does on offense. It doesn't include passing. Other players have much higher usage / roles in their team's offense than Jaylen does.

The Thinking Basketball guy has a better stat called offensive load but it is behind a paywall. I am not a subscriber. He also separates general assists from assists created after drawing a double team with the latter kind a much more valuable assist.

Years ago he gave the example of Melo vs Nash. I forget the exact numbers. Melo had a Jaylen-like usage of around 30%. When you included passing he went up to 35-40%. Nash had a low usage (for a star - medium usage for a normal player) 20-23% which went way up above 50% when passing was included. Which is clear to anyone who watched Nash's Suns teams. He had the ball in his hands all the time and created a huge amount of their offense.

* Luka 36.8% usage is probably closer to 60%.
* Jaylen's 35.1% last year is probably in the low 40s.
* Tatum I expect would often be in the low 40s as well. Jaylen's probably goes back down to low to mid 30s when Tatum is around.

There was another example Ben Taylor gave which was the D-Wade / Shaq partnership. Wade's offensive load would go up to 55% or so when Shaq was out and decline back to around 45% when Shaq played during their title contending years. Something like that. Tatum will get a bump without Jaylen around just as Jaylen got a bump last season without Tatum around.

Overall, Jaylen's usage / offensive role is not nearly as large as that stat "usage" makes it out to be. It over-states players like Jaylen and understates the usage / offensive load of playmakers. Jokic for example would have a huge offensive load. Probably 55%. Not 26.8% usage. Which makes far more sense since their entire offense revolves around him. Boston's does not revolve around Jaylen. Not even last season when Tatum was out.

I will be curious to see how Usage and Offensive Load vary for Brown and Tatum.  Neither is going to be like Nash, but I would expect that for Brown in 2025-26, both usage and load will be high.  And also that for Tatum, both his usage and load are lower with Brown than without (and the other way around also).

I think the working theory here is that Tatum will be more productive with his usage or load than Brown.  So if Brown being here is reducing Tatum's usage/load, then that results in a less productive or efficient overall team.  You want the most usage/load from your best player.  To me, this does not have to mean that Brown isn't productive with his usage/load, just not as productive as Tatum.