Expectations for Paul George

[Who]

What are you expecting from Paul George next season?

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So what I am looking for from Paul George next season is

* Around 15ppg
* Hopefully league average scoring efficiency
* Good connectivity play offensively

* Above average man defense
* Above average team defense
* Average rebounding

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I see some posts which are expecting PG13 to be more like All-Star PG13 - or at least to up his scoring back to 18-20ppg.

I am not sure that is something we should be looking for him to do. His scoring numbers have been 17ppg and 16ppg the last two years and his scoring efficiency has been below average and slightly below average in those 2 years.

PG13 got on a heater from 3pt land in the playoffs last year and he has created this impression that he is some highly efficient 3rd option offensively. He is not. He just got hot for a few weeks. His shot attempts actually went down in the playoffs (13.9 to 12.8 FGA) despite his playing time going up (30.7mpg to 35.8mpg). So if you use Per 36min numbers to even out playing time differences, PG13's FGA went from 16.3 FGA in the regular season to 13.0 FGA in the playoffs. Why?

Paul George's scoring has changed in recent years. As some have point out, he no longer gets to the FT line. Only 3.0 FTA in the regular season down to 1.8 FTA in the postseason. He doesn't attack the rim as often as he used. He has become more and more of a jump-shooter. This is why his overall scoring efficiency has been average to below average in recent years.

PG13 is a very good shooter but you need to be a great shooter when you are not getting enough high percentage shots at the FT line or at the rim to maintain strong scoring efficiency numbers.

So you take a guy like that and you ask him to ramp up his scoring, what you get is a guy who is using jump-shots to create that additional scoring and those new jump-shots will be off the dribble contested jump-shots because he is already maximizing his open jump-shot opportunities. They are the lowest percentage shots in basketball. So you ask him to add scoring and his scoring efficiency will decline further.

This is why we should look for him more in the mid teens than high teens early 20s. Because he can't ramp up that scoring volume anymore. He has shown this in Philly when Embiid has been out injured.

Now, Paul George is still an above average offensive player because in addition to his ~15ppg on average or near-average scoring efficiency, PG13 also adds strong connectivity play and floor spacing to create very good team offense for those around him. That lifts his scoring efficiency numbers into quality overall offensive efficiency numbers.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I doubt he'll be at his former all-star level, but I think he can be a solid player, on offense and defense. My biggest concern with him is health. His age will limit him, of course, but I think he can make quite a few positive contributions.

[jambr380]

I expect him to be similar to Tobias Harris. Solid shooting/scoring, solid defense, solid passing, and solid teammate. He should slot in nicely with Pritchard and White as secondary scorers. If the Celtics are a top team, Tatum really could be a contender for MVP. The narrative for him and Luka will be there for sure.

Timi posted his highlights from last year on Youtube. He actually does still look fairly athletic and not afraid of contact. But I do think we rest him for double headers and play him more like 25-30 minutes. No reason to force another injury.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWxELsZCkXs&t=405s

[Phantom255x]

God it's gonna be brutal to have to watch this guy this season. I don't put him at CP3/Harden levels of being a loser but he's close, and if you thought Jaylen's twitch streams were annoying (I didn't), PG13 and his podcasting is gonna also drive you insane.

Realistically on this team, he basically is the #2 option. Not a great one, but on this team he will be with Tatum. I think he can be a consistent 19/6/4 kind of player when healthy at his age. Still a downgrade from Jaylen no question

[snively]

A high end if not high energy 3/D guy with mediocre supplementary scoring who will probably miss 1/3 of the season.

Helps keep the floor of the team around 50 wins if he doesn't miss too much time.