Let's put ourselves in Brad's shoes for a second, why would he have done this?

[LilRip]

If I were management, I think the first question to be answered was: can a core of JB-JT win in the near future with these new cap rules? Followed by? is JB worth the extension that he?s eligible for?

If the answers for both questions were no, it wouldn?t be crazy then to think that JB would ask to be traded if the C?s weren?t going to extend him. He could still talk on socials about how he?d like to retire as a Celtic, while conveniently leaving out the condition that he would stay only if they pay him 70/yr.

[Kernewek]

The Celtics obviously determined that they needed to trade him and they needed to trade him now. We don't know the reasons for this, but it seemingly had to happen. I don't think it had anything to do with an impending Jaylen extension when he is signed for 3 more years. That extension is definitely not happening now anyway. Clearly nobody values Jaylen on that level of contract.

As for the best deal available, we just don't know what else was on the table. It is my determination that Brad actually sees value in George and thinks he will yield similar production to Jaylen, while also getting two future 1sts. I don't think Brad necessarily blew a much better opportunity, but there might have been a deal or two that would have been more palatable to fans as all of us see George's contract as an albatross.

This is it, I think: the front office determined that having a top-15 guy on a supermax is not going to move the needle when it comes to competing for a championship.

If that's the determination, and the rest of the league is more or less in agreement, then Jaylen is gone in the next 2-3 years anyway, and everyone knows it. Hence the depressed trade value.

Like you, I suspect that the front office is also banking on the fact that the drop-off from Brown to Paul George will be a lot less substantial than people are expecting; and in two years we'll have enough space for another max contract with the repeater being fully reset plus a high pick from the Clippers, wherein the team will be able to go all in on another championship run when Tatum is still in his prime.


Again, this is the most charitable interpretation I can come up with for why the move has been made. I'm not sure I would have made it myself, but that's why I'm not a GM.

[No Nickname]

I won't defend the trade, but I imagine Brad thought there was no way we were winning the championship next year if we kept Brown. 

Championship or bust, right?

Maybe he thought that while the Sixers offer stunk, it would only get worse from here.  That one is hard to believe, but I bet he thought that it would take Brown + 1st round picks to make any trade for better assets (ex. Zion and Murphy, if you view Zion as a huge risk that the Pels would be happy to get rid of).

Side note, I wonder if the Pels would have done a straight up deal of Brown for Zion? 

Anyway, if George can stay relatively healthy and play in ~55~ games next year, and we get to the conference semis or conference finals, I wonder if Brad would renegotiate with a then 37-year-old Paul George? 

Instead of 1yr/$56.6MM left on the deal, if George has a productive season in 26/27 (16ppg/6rpg/4ast) with good defense, would a new two-year contract for $70MM be more palatable?  That differential would be close to the MLE, which George might think he could get at age 38.

But then it's a $35MM/year contract (for two years) for a guy who you think might give you that 15/6/4 at close to 50/40/90 shooting percentage. 

And even then, that expiring $35MM contract could be used in a trade with picks for a disgruntled star elsewhere.

That's the BEST CASE SCENARIO as I'm grasping for straws. 

[celticinorlando]

Something behind the scenes has happened to make the Cs trade JB for this sorry deal....not only that...the Cs did not want JB in the organization at all and took a bad deal to have him go away...to a rival.

[Smartacus]

https://youtu.be/F4KYXNMYvXs?is=Yu_SMfogR0zFe4fJ

I think Colin Cowherd does a perfect job in this vid of explaining Brad?s position and I frankly agree with most of it. He basically says that they needed to split the Jays, they chose Tatum because he?s easier to work with, the trade gave them assets and control of the makeup of the roster moving forward. You wish you could have gotten more but JB himself poisoned the well on his value.

10/10 analysis.

[celticinorlando]

https://youtu.be/F4KYXNMYvXs?is=Yu_SMfogR0zFe4fJ

I think Colin Cowherd does a perfect job in this vid of explaining Brad?s position and I frankly agree with most of it. He basically says that they needed to split the Jays, they chose Tatum because he?s easier to work with, the trade gave them assets and control of the makeup of the roster moving forward. You wish you could have gotten more but JB himself poisoned the well on his value.

10/10 analysis.

I do think Brown thought he was the smartest player in the locker room, thought he was smarter than the coaching staff and def thought he was the guy the organization should be building around.

Don't think Tatum will miss him, nor will Joe.

JB playing the combative victim with Nike, USA basketball, SAS, ESPN, anyone that questioned him got old. He so wanted to be the guy but in reality he is Pippen to Jordan.

Then the comments not less than 24 hours after a game 7 loss. Those were not taken well. Leaking your feeling to Tracy MCGrady. Not good.

Brown knew what he was doing and wanted out.

[jpotter33]

Jaylen is way overrated by fans and is a net negative asset.  He is due a major extension that will pay him $73 million and his return will be even lower when that kicks in.  There are lots of advanced analytics that say he is an average player at best and also things like he reduces the projected amount score by EACH teammate he plays with by 4 points a game.  We went 9-2 without him last year and overall that is about the win percentage has in games where he doesn't play then when he does.  This is basically scratching the surface and you can also see that he has shot us out of the playoffs two years in a row.

And if that sounds harsh, do you know who else thinks that way?  Every GM in the league for the most part.  We were OPENLY shopping him and that was the best offer.  There was no bidding war.  Our team is sick of him and knows the truth about him.  It's not like Luka where nobody knew he was available.  EVERYBODY knew he was available.  I will say if anything in analytics is wrong we might be slightly overvaluing Hugo Gonzalez but even then....he might really be that good!  Like I am more sure that Jaylen Brown is fool's gold, especially in the aprons era of cap management where Brown is basically poison, but it's pretty close.

Watch the apologists argue with you that he was Finals MVP blah blah.

Yeah I wanted him gone, but just upset that the package received was such an underwhelming package. I thought Brad could've done better

Yeah but again, the package was available to everybody.  Every GM knew we were pulling the trigger this summer.  NOBODY stepped in to beat THAT.  That is his market.  And it's only going to get lower when he's making $73 million.  Fans overrate Jaylen but that is what his value is

Probably, but I think the issue - for most fans - is that you can win a championship with Tatum, Brown and friends. It very much remains to be seen if you can win a championship with just Tatum and friends, which is what the roster is looking like right now.

If ownership thinks Tatum will need another season to really round into form, this trade makes more sense. I still don't like it, but I can see it.

I think we?re underrating the bolded ?and friends? part, though. Putting 2022 aside which is a bit of an outlier given we were on a generational defensive run to end that season, the only time we won it was with a super team of four max-level players that simply isn?t realistic anymore.

All things put together, I think the team just decided that we weren?t getting enough ROI with the Jays? partnership in the current environment to justify it anymore.

[Kernewek]

Jaylen is way overrated by fans and is a net negative asset.  He is due a major extension that will pay him $73 million and his return will be even lower when that kicks in.  There are lots of advanced analytics that say he is an average player at best and also things like he reduces the projected amount score by EACH teammate he plays with by 4 points a game.  We went 9-2 without him last year and overall that is about the win percentage has in games where he doesn't play then when he does.  This is basically scratching the surface and you can also see that he has shot us out of the playoffs two years in a row.

And if that sounds harsh, do you know who else thinks that way?  Every GM in the league for the most part.  We were OPENLY shopping him and that was the best offer.  There was no bidding war.  Our team is sick of him and knows the truth about him.  It's not like Luka where nobody knew he was available.  EVERYBODY knew he was available.  I will say if anything in analytics is wrong we might be slightly overvaluing Hugo Gonzalez but even then....he might really be that good!  Like I am more sure that Jaylen Brown is fool's gold, especially in the aprons era of cap management where Brown is basically poison, but it's pretty close.

Watch the apologists argue with you that he was Finals MVP blah blah.

Yeah I wanted him gone, but just upset that the package received was such an underwhelming package. I thought Brad could've done better

Yeah but again, the package was available to everybody.  Every GM knew we were pulling the trigger this summer.  NOBODY stepped in to beat THAT.  That is his market.  And it's only going to get lower when he's making $73 million.  Fans overrate Jaylen but that is what his value is

Probably, but I think the issue - for most fans - is that you can win a championship with Tatum, Brown and friends. It very much remains to be seen if you can win a championship with just Tatum and friends, which is what the roster is looking like right now.

If ownership thinks Tatum will need another season to really round into form, this trade makes more sense. I still don't like it, but I can see it.

I think we?re underrating the bolded ?and friends? part, though. Putting 2022 aside which is a bit of an outlier given we were on a generational defensive run to end that season, the only time we won it was with a super team of four max-level players that simply isn?t realistic anymore.

All things put together, I think the team just decided that we weren?t getting enough ROI with the Jays? partnership in the current environment to justify it anymore.

Yeah I'd agree with that - and there's an additional wrinkle, which we haven't touched on, where we were 'supposed' to be much, much worse this season than we ended up being, which was better for us (the fans) but probably made tearing the bandaid off more difficult.

If we have a rubbish season and Stevens makes the same trade, I don't think the blowback is nearly as severe.

[snively]

Doesn't make sense. PG is attractive as a useful if healthy 3/D/3rd option guy with a big expiring next year and picks are always nice,  but why severely diminish the roster in a contending year for that?

Why not try to make it work with Brown before resorting to that?

The assumption seems to be that Brown would self-destruct if not moved right away.

[celticinorlando]

Summer of 2027 was always the target. Last season and this upcoming season were looked at as soft rebuilds, getting finances clean and resetting

Next summer will loom large.