2026-27 Celtics Off Season Discussion

[Who]

Last thing on the Bulls ...

I am looking at Buzelis' shot chart. He took 447 shots inside of 10 feet and 495 threes. Only 21 shots in between 10 and 24 feet.

Almost 1,000 shots on the season so Buzelis took midrange shots (21 shots) on roughly one fifth of one percent of his total attempts!!

That is insane.

Welcome to modern basketball.

[Vermont Green]

According to veteran NBA reporter Gery Woelfel, the Heat have made a trade offer to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo that includes Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, the 13th overall pick in this year's NBA draft, and two future first-round picks.

That is a strong offer, but not sure Tyler Herro is what MIL would want to take back.  I suppose he could be flipped to another team.  A MIA team headlined by Giannis and Adebayo seems a bit mis-matched.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

According to veteran NBA reporter Gery Woelfel, the Heat have made a trade offer to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo that includes Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, the 13th overall pick in this year's NBA draft, and two future first-round picks.

That is a strong offer, but not sure Tyler Herro is what MIL would want to take back.  I suppose he could be flipped to another team.  A MIA team headlined by Giannis and Adebayo seems a bit mis-matched.

It is a good offer for sure. But I see a few problems.

If I'm Giannis, do I think that Bam and I can win a championship together, and do I think that we will get in each other's way a lot?

If I'm the Bucks, it gives me talent, but no all-star talent. What's Herro's value around the league? What is a skinny scoring guard who doesn't get to the free throw line and doesn't play defense get me? Is he basically CJ McCullom? Ware is an interesting piece. He probably is a starting quality big in the NBA for a lot of years, but it also means that my team has to trade Turner, or Portis, or Kuzma. It loses me leverage over those deals. I'm a fan of Jauquez, but he's a good role player on a winning team. He has little value on a lottery team. The 13th pick in this draft is interesting, but those future picks don't mean a whole lot.

It's a fine trade package. It's probably even somewhat fair value. But if I'm the Bucks, I'd have to be excited about at least one thing I'm getting back. Nothing in that trade package is exciting. It's assets that lead to a road of mediocrity.

[Vermont Green]

Massive change speculation

Reality--not much change happens.

Probably.  But with Brad it could go either way. None of us really predicted the summer of 2023.

I see the limiting factor being that it has to be one extreme or the other in all likelihood.  Either there is something big where Brown is traded, or if not that, they resign Vucevic and run it back.  I don't see much happening in the middle.

So with that said, yes, more likely for not much change over a big change, but I see either as very much in play.  And there is no reason to doubt that Stevens would make a large deal if he thought it was a good deal.

[tenn_smoothie]

Is there a preference by our management to wait til the summer of 2027 to make any big moves because we will be in a much stronger position salary cap wise then ?
Will the Celts, in fact, have much better options and more money to make beneficial trades or free agent signings a year from now ?

I know that it would be disappointing to have to wait another season before we are serious title contenders again, but maybe it is the best option.
With what we are seeing in OKC and San Antonio, we are not going to win anything with a very good, but not great team.
Maybe best to wait one more season and then go all in to strengthen what is still a very good core in an effort to get at least one more title in this era.

One of Red's strengths as GM was his ability to be patient while putting together 3 separate championship groups.
He was famously questioned about the wisdom of drafting Larry Bird as a junior-eligible because he would have to wait another season to repair all the damage done by John Y.
Red's response was that one year was a relatively short amount of time to wait to build a championship roster. In two years he completed the moves that gave us the core 4-man frontcourt that was the backbone of teams that won 3 titles. He was also a genius at adding the right player in the middle of a championship era to regain an edge. (Paul Silas, Bill Walton, Dennis Johnson, John Havlicek).

[Birdman]

I really believe Celtics are going to keep brown, Tatum & white

[Vermont Green]

The following is the net rating for BOS, regular season vs. playoffs:

Reg   Playoffs   Change   PLAYER
11.3    -5.8     -17.1   Derrick White
 8.8    -5.2     -14.0   Sam Hauser
 6.5    -4.9     -11.4   Jaylen Brown
13.2     3.2    -10.0   Neemias Queta
 7.3     0.7     -6.6   Baylor Scheierman
10.3     3.9    -6.4   Nikola Vučević
10.5     6.6     -3.9   Jayson Tatum
 8.0    10.0      2.0   Payton Pritchard
 5.8     9.0      3.2   Luka Garza
 5.1    22.3     17.2   Jordan Walsh

Things don't line up so well but you can see the players who went way down in the playoffs vs. the regular season.  Derrick White leads the way with Hauser, Brown, and Queta not that far behind.  You expect all players to be down some as the team did worse overall.

[Goldstar88]

The following is the net rating for BOS, regular season vs. playoffs:

Reg   Playoffs   Change   PLAYER
11.3    -5.8     -17.1   Derrick White
 8.8    -5.2     -14.0   Sam Hauser
 6.5    -4.9     -11.4   Jaylen Brown
13.2     3.2    -10.0   Neemias Queta
 7.3     0.7     -6.6   Baylor Scheierman
10.3     3.9    -6.4   Nikola Vučević
10.5     6.6     -3.9   Jayson Tatum
 8.0    10.0      2.0   Payton Pritchard
 5.8     9.0      3.2   Luka Garza
 5.1    22.3     17.2   Jordan Walsh

Things don't line up so well but you can see the players who went way down in the playoffs vs. the regular season.  Derrick White leads the way with Hauser, Brown, and Queta not that far behind.  You expect all players to be down some as the team did worse overall.

So JB had the worst net rating of the starters during the regular season. Has to be the turnovers.

[ozgod]

Is there a preference by our management to wait til the summer of 2027 to make any big moves because we will be in a much stronger position salary cap wise then ?
Will the Celts, in fact, have much better options and more money to make beneficial trades or free agent signings a year from now ?

I know that it would be disappointing to have to wait another season before we are serious title contenders again, but maybe it is the best option.
With what we are seeing in OKC and San Antonio, we are not going to win anything with a very good, but not great team.
Maybe best to wait one more season and then go all in to strengthen what is still a very good core in an effort to get at least one more title in this era.

One of Red's strengths as GM was his ability to be patient while putting together 3 separate championship groups.
He was famously questioned about the wisdom of drafting Larry Bird as a junior-eligible because he would have to wait another season to repair all the damage done by John Y.
Red's response was that one year was a relatively short amount of time to wait to build a championship roster. In two years he completed the moves that gave us the core 4-man frontcourt that was the backbone of teams that won 3 titles. He was also a genius at adding the right player in the middle of a championship era to regain an edge. (Paul Silas, Bill Walton, Dennis Johnson, John Havlicek).

I posted this earlier when we first started talking about upgrading the team with all the (knee jerk) reactions after we were unceremoniously bundled out of the playoffs by Philly. Everyone is probably sick of me posting our salary cap info because a) it's unfun to think about constraints when we're fantasizing about building a superteam; b) it's unfun to think that we will probably just run the same team back again - or if we do we will have to remain under the luxury tax, to make sure we reset it after we went under it this season (you need to be under the tax line 2 of the last 4 seasons - they don't have to be 2 consecutive seasons but since we were over in 2023-24 and 2024-25, and under in 2025-26, if we are under in 2026-27 the next time we go over we start at the beginning, at the standard tax rate instead of the repeater rate).

It's too complicated to explain how much worse paying the repeater rate would be vs the standard rate because it's a progressive tax rate and everyone here hates filing taxes and the last thing they want to think about when following their sports team is taxes  so I will simply say that you would be looking at paying 2-3x the tax as a repeater as you would a non-repeater.

So the point being that they went to so much effort this season to duck the tax, shipped out Jrue, KP, let Al and Kornet walk, gutted the team, sent out Simons for an expiring in Vucevic, I just can't see a methodical person like Brad Stevens to throw all that out the window and waste the opportunity to reset the repeater rate. Especially since we don't have to spend anything next season, everyone is under contract and controlled. We have the option to spend up to $13m next season, either via the Simons TPE or via the non taxpayer MLE, and still stay under the tax. It is 2027-28 that we will have non-discretionary spend, because we have to extend Pritchard, Queta, Garza, Walsh and Scheierman just to keep them - those 5 are costing us $15m right now. Pritchard alone will probably cost more than that to retain in 2027, he may even be worth $20m+ given he was SMOTY. Then Queta might be worth what Kornet got from the Spurs, which is $10m a season. Say Baylor gets $8m, Walsh $6m, and Garza $6m (being conservative with those 3) that could be $50m right there.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)


So if everything else is equal we will be going over the tax in 2027, and probably by at least $17m, maybe $37m. Post tax without repeater rate that will be around 325% so $58m-$120m in tax, with repeater rate it would be 525% or $90m-$190m.

So not resetting the repeater rate would cost us $40-$50m just because we have to extend those five players and not do anything else. (Luxury tax is one of the hardest things to calculate exactly because it's a progressive tax rate as well as an exponentially escalating one for repeaters but these numbers should be right for order or magnitude). So I'm 99.9% certain Brad isn't going to go over the luxury tax if the team isn't a serious contender and still has flaws. I think he (and Joe, assuming he isn't fired) will want to see consistency and improvement in shooting from the young guys - Hugo, Baylor, Harper, Walsh - as well as to see if Q and maybe Garza continue to make leaps. Because by 2027 tough decisions have to be made on extensions.

Now we have Vuc's $21m coming off the books (he was a $30m cap hold until he re-signs with us or someone else) and without him we would be at $187m, which is $13m below the tax line and $21m below the first apron. And we have the Simons TPE which is $27m. So those are the substantial things Brad can manipulate - he can re-sign Vuc for a lower number and then use some of that Simons TPE to get a big, a ball handler, or both, knowing that if he wants to stay under the tax all 3 have to be no more than $13m. Then we should have our non taxpayer MLE as well (I think $15m). But if we use all of it we get hardcapped at the first apron which I'm sure Brad won't want to do, especially since he wants to be under the luxury tax.

Of course we could ship out some of the forum pinatas too (like Jaylen  ). It just needs to all be under $200m which I think the luxury tax line will be next season.

I hate posting this stuff, I know nobody likes to read it because it's a buzzkill when we want to talk about putting together a Big 3 and get new and shiny toys, but Brad strikes me to be a patient man, like Red, and someone who plans over years. He knows when the uncontrollable spending windows are, and he plans his spend to happen around those windows. UNLESS a golden opportunity pops up that you just can't say no to. Like a Garnett type trade, which pushed the Cs over the tax back then. Even so I think if that were to happen next season Brad would try and figure out a way if he could to stay under the tax. If it were to happen in the following season - 2027-28, if they managed to reset their rate I think there's an understanding that they will be operating as an over the tax team and that will be the window to spend big.

I know that's a lot to digest, hope it provided some clarity 

[tenn_smoothie]

Thank You oz.

One thing influenced me to start looking at our situation with more patience ................ watching the Thunder/Spurs series. Those teams, with future assets as well, appear to be flush with young, athletic contributors to support their respective superstars.

Personally, my only objective for any Celtic season is to win another title and hang another banner. Yes, it's fun to have a team that plays hard and plays together and overachieves, but in the end, a player's ability to contribute to winning the next championship is the only consideration a franchise like ours should keep in mind when making personnel moves. We cannot trot out a good, but not great team and beat either of them in a prospective final for the next 5 years, which is the remaining hopeful prime for our core stars. Adding one starter-level player next season is not going to be enough.

You are correct, oz, that going through another season essentially waiting to improve our ability to spend money for a future season is a painful circumstance. Thank You CBA.
One silver lining to this misery is the possibility that it gives Joe an improved chance of falling on his face and finally being shown the door !!!!!!

[jambr380]

Thank You oz.

One thing influenced me to start looking at our situation with more patience ................ watching the Thunder/Spurs series. Those teams, with future assets as well, appear to be flush with young, athletic contributors to support their respective superstars.

Personally, my only objective for any Celtic season is to win another title and hang another banner. Yes, it's fun to have a team that plays hard and plays together and overachieves, but in the end, a player's ability to contribute to winning the next championship is the only consideration a franchise like ours should keep in mind when making personnel moves. We cannot trot out a good, but not great team and beat either of them in a prospective final for the next 5 years, which is the remaining hopeful prime for our core stars. Adding one starter-level player next season is not going to be enough.

You are correct, oz, that going through another season essentially waiting to improve our ability to spend money for a future season is a painful circumstance. Thank You CBA.
One silver lining to this misery is the possibility that it gives Joe an improved chance of falling on his face and finally being shown the door !!!!!!

It should be noted that even though OKC is flush with young players and picks, their big 3 will finally be starting to cost them. In 26-27, the max contracts of Chet and Williams will be kicking. Williams actually had supermax language in his contract for All-NBA, but that didn't happen - which is probably a big relief for OKC.

In 27-28, Shai's supermax will kick in and he'll be making $20M more than he will in 26-27. So OKC definitely will need to make smart, informed decisions, and will continue to need inspired play from their young guys. Even this next season, they likely need to let Hartenstein and probably even Dort go. Those two together make $47M and they are already over the tax without them.

[Vermont Green]

It is hard to project exactly how much room BOS will have to spend because so many things could change.  Right now, they have 14 signed but 6 are team option contracts.  These 6 TO contracts include Queta's whose option is not likely be be declined but Banton and Shugla almost certainly will be declined.  Harper, Walsh, and Williams could be on the bubble but likely stay in my view.  Then you have to account for the 1st round pick although that could be traded, sent to Europe or something.

So my adjusted projection for room under the tax for next season (2026/27), I subtract out Banton and Shugla and add in the first round pick.  This gets to 13 players and about $185M total.  That leaves about $16M under the tax line.  They will likely sign Vucevic or a similar veteran player to get to 14 on the roster and probably start the season with that, as they have done the last couple of seasons.

But then there is the possibility that they could sell off Hauser ($10.8M) into someone's cap space (for say a couple of future seconds) and then they have more like $26M room under the tax, but would need to add 2 more players.  Maybe they spend say $20M on one really good player (a starter) and then $6M on someone to replace Hauser.  I don't think it is entirely out of the question that Vucevic would take $6M.  I can't believe he will be getting all that many offers.

[No Nickname]

But then there is the possibility that they could sell off Hauser ($10.8M) into someone's cap space (for say a couple of future seconds) and then they have more like $26M room under the tax, but would need to add 2 more players.  Maybe they spend say $20M on one really good player (a starter) and then $6M on someone to replace Hauser.  I don't think it is entirely out of the question that Vucevic would take $6M.  I can't believe he will be getting all that many offers.

Interesting concept.  You could conceivably get two starter-level guys with this plan. 

ESPN's latest free agency article mentions Boston amongst several teams as a good fit for Mitchell Robinson from the Knicks.

Since we'd be competing with them for a berth in the NBA Finals, that could be a double-whammy for them, both losing a key player and strengthening one of their primary opponents.