Is there a preference by our management to wait til the summer of 2027 to make any big moves because we will be in a much stronger position salary cap wise then ?
Will the Celts, in fact, have much better options and more money to make beneficial trades or free agent signings a year from now ?
I know that it would be disappointing to have to wait another season before we are serious title contenders again, but maybe it is the best option.
With what we are seeing in OKC and San Antonio, we are not going to win anything with a very good, but not great team.
Maybe best to wait one more season and then go all in to strengthen what is still a very good core in an effort to get at least one more title in this era.
One of Red's strengths as GM was his ability to be patient while putting together 3 separate championship groups.
He was famously questioned about the wisdom of drafting Larry Bird as a junior-eligible because he would have to wait another season to repair all the damage done by John Y.
Red's response was that one year was a relatively short amount of time to wait to build a championship roster. In two years he completed the moves that gave us the core 4-man frontcourt that was the backbone of teams that won 3 titles. He was also a genius at adding the right player in the middle of a championship era to regain an edge. (Paul Silas, Bill Walton, Dennis Johnson, John Havlicek).
I posted this earlier when we first started talking about upgrading the team with all the (knee jerk) reactions after we were unceremoniously bundled out of the playoffs by Philly. Everyone is probably sick of me posting our salary cap info because a) it's unfun to think about constraints when we're fantasizing about building a superteam; b) it's unfun to think that we will probably just run the same team back again - or if we do we will have to remain under the luxury tax, to make sure we reset it after we went under it this season (you need to be under the tax line 2 of the last 4 seasons - they don't have to be 2 consecutive seasons but since we were over in 2023-24 and 2024-25, and under in 2025-26, if we are under in 2026-27 the next time we go over we start at the beginning, at the standard tax rate instead of the repeater rate).
It's too complicated to explain how much worse paying the repeater rate would be vs the standard rate because it's a progressive tax rate and everyone here hates filing taxes and the last thing they want to think about when following their sports team is taxes
so I will simply say that you would be looking at paying 2-3x the tax as a repeater as you would a non-repeater.
So the point being that they went to so much effort this season to duck the tax, shipped out Jrue, KP, let Al and Kornet walk, gutted the team, sent out Simons for an expiring in Vucevic, I just can't see a methodical person like Brad Stevens to throw all that out the window and waste the opportunity to reset the repeater rate. Especially since we
don't have to spend anything next season, everyone is under contract and controlled. We have the option to spend up to $13m next season, either via the Simons TPE or via the non taxpayer MLE, and still stay under the tax. It is 2027-28 that we will have non-discretionary spend, because we have to extend Pritchard, Queta, Garza, Walsh and Scheierman just to keep them - those 5 are costing us $15m right now. Pritchard alone will probably cost more than that to retain in 2027, he may even be worth $20m+ given he was SMOTY. Then Queta might be worth what Kornet got from the Spurs, which is $10m a season. Say Baylor gets $8m, Walsh $6m, and Garza $6m (being conservative with those 3) that could be $50m right there.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
So if everything else is equal we
will be going over the tax in 2027, and probably by at least $17m, maybe $37m. Post tax without repeater rate that will be around 325% so $58m-$120m in tax, with repeater rate it would be 525% or $90m-$190m.
So not resetting the repeater rate would cost us $40-$50m just because we have to extend those five players and not do anything else. (Luxury tax is one of the hardest things to calculate exactly because it's a progressive tax rate as well as an exponentially escalating one for repeaters but these numbers should be right for order or magnitude). So I'm 99.9% certain Brad isn't going to go over the luxury tax if the team isn't a serious contender and still has flaws. I think he (and Joe, assuming he isn't fired) will want to see consistency and improvement in shooting from the young guys - Hugo, Baylor, Harper, Walsh - as well as to see if Q and maybe Garza continue to make leaps. Because by 2027 tough decisions have to be made on extensions.
Now we have Vuc's $21m coming off the books (he was a $30m cap hold until he re-signs with us or someone else) and without him we would be at $187m, which is $13m below the tax line and $21m below the first apron. And we have the Simons TPE which is $27m. So those are the substantial things Brad can manipulate - he can re-sign Vuc for a lower number and then use some of that Simons TPE to get a big, a ball handler, or both, knowing that if he wants to stay under the tax all 3 have to be no more than $13m. Then we should have our non taxpayer MLE as well (I think $15m). But if we use all of it we get hardcapped at the first apron which I'm sure Brad won't want to do, especially since he wants to be under the luxury tax.
Of course we could ship out some of the forum pinatas too (like Jaylen
). It just needs to all be under $200m which I think the luxury tax line will be next season.
I hate posting this stuff, I know nobody likes to read it because it's a buzzkill when we want to talk about putting together a Big 3 and get new and shiny toys, but Brad strikes me to be a patient man, like Red, and someone who plans over years. He knows when the uncontrollable spending windows are, and he plans his spend to happen around those windows. UNLESS a golden opportunity pops up that you just can't say no to. Like a Garnett type trade, which pushed the Cs over the tax back then. Even so I think if that were to happen next season Brad would try and figure out a way if he could to stay under the tax. If it were to happen in the following season - 2027-28, if they managed to reset their rate I think there's an understanding that they will be operating as an over the tax team and that will be the window to spend big.
I know that's a lot to digest, hope it provided some clarity
Topic: 2026-27 Celtics Off Season Discussion (Read 15720 times)