Poll: Memphis Draft Choice Boozer vs Wilson

[Smartacus]

With the offseas upon us, thought it would be interesting to get the community?s take on what I think is the most difficult draft choice in years. Now, of course this is assuming that the draft falls this way, there?s nothing to stop one of the top 2 teams from taking either of these in which case Memphis would probably take the top 2 prospect wasn?t taken, but assuming that Dybantsa and
Peterson are off the board, who should Memphis take at 3.

Cam Boozer is one of the most rock solid, can?t miss prospects in recent memory. Great shooter, solid handles and decision-making, and overall the most NBA ready player in the draft, that is largely ground bound. It won?t be winning any track meets.

All Caleb Wilson did this year was exceed expectations at every turn. Extremely competitive, dynamite athleticism, and although he?s not a shooter had plenty of big 3?s throughout the year. By all rights has proven to be just as good of a prospect as the top 3 and it might be a better cultural fit from the type of player that Memphis has typically drafted.

Probably the closest thing we?ve had to a Tim Duncan versus KG situation in the modern era. So who you got or Memphis?

[Who]

Can Caleb Wilson shoot?

I mean, can he shoot long 2s? Midrange 2s? Or is he just an at the rim & paint player?

[Roy H.]

Probably the closest thing we?ve had to a Tim Duncan versus KG situation in the modern era

Probably not.

I'd take Boozer.

[Who]

I am seeing a bunch of these "KG-lite" comparisons for Caleb Wilson. Reminds me of when Marvin Williams was "KG-lite" coming out of UNC.

[Who]

A bit of a scouting report on Caleb Wilson from an NBA.com / The Athletic mock draft

https://www.nba.com/news/caleb-wilson-latest-2026-nba-mock-draft

4. Memphis Grizzlies
Caleb Wilson | 6-10 wing | 19 years old | North Carolina

Wilson missed the final month of the season with a broken right thumb and a broken left hand. Before that, he averaged 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks and was good in just about every game he played.

It?s all about power and explosiveness for Wilson. He plays with terrific bend and balance as a driver. Combine that with his strength and leaping ability, and you get a special player who can dominate at the rim. The further into the cycle we get, the more I hear from scouts who see Wilson in the same group as Peterson, Dybantsa and Boozer, with some even ranking him as a top-three player in the class. It didn?t hurt Wilson?s case that he outperformed all three of those players when North Carolina played them this season (in Dybantsa?s case, in the preseason, but still).

Wilson?s flaws are easier to scout than the others?, though. He doesn?t take many 3s (he was just 7-of-27 shooting on the season), although his mechanics looked good from the extended midrange area. Defensively, the block and steal numbers are strong, but he?s not as twitchy on the ball as you?d expect for an athlete of his caliber; plus, he?s messy off the ball with his rotations and with how quickly he reacts. Most of his assists come on pre-ordained reads within structure, rather than when he?s on the move and reacting. But the reality is that few players consistently play with his type of motor and aggressiveness. He has many similarities to Pascal Siakam, who has made multiple All-NBA teams.

Just from a few highlights I was notcing the same thing about his athleticism. Good leaper. Impressive dunker and weak side shot blocker. Not a top athlete though. Not top level quickness or agility. Good quickness but not high level quickness.

Looks more like a combo forward than a true big man. More like a Jeff Green or Marvin Williams type physique. C Wilson might be better off putting on more muscle to overpower PFs rather than trying to out-quick them given his lack of elite quickness or elite perimeter skills (shooting, ball-handling, passing).

[Who]

If I am Chicago, I am disappointed Caleb Wilson is the guy at #4. I don't want another PF. They already have one in Matas Buzelis. They have another slow forward in Giddey.

Buzelis looks athletic enough to defend down two positions and defend opponent guards allowing Giddey to defend SFs and C Wilson to defend PFs. So that might work. Caleb Wilson and Buzelis both lackluster outside shooters though. Offensive spacing may be an issue. Perhaps just a short term issue though. Maybe you just live with it for now and hope those two guys (3 guys really = Giddey) develop their 3-ball enough.

Bulls desperately need a guard or a center. I wonder if they will consider trading the pick. Maybe trading down a slot or three and picking up one of the PGs instead while picking up some other asset in the process.

[Who]

No Ceilings scouting report

This from the end of January. I believe C Wilson missed the last month of the season so this should include most of his games. Looking at his game log it misses his final 4 games. So 20 out of 24 games played this season at the time of this writing.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/caleb-wilson-to-doubt-or-to-believe

This is why you will hear Caleb Wilson?s name mentioned with multiple players within a tier?just not the top tier.

The reasons for this largely come down to a few points:

* Shooting Concerns
* Non-Dunk Finishing
* Lack of Feel

He is shooting only 25% from deep on 1.8 attempts per 100 possessions, and if you look at the current free-throw percentage of 69.3%, you may not feel confident with Caleb?s ability to be a consistent shooter from distance.

The article continues to say he took 50 long twos on the season. It did not say how many he hit. So he takes some long twos but we have no idea how accurate he is. I am still looking for a number on this if anyone finds one. I'd love to know.

Showed a couple of tough contested fallaways Wilson hit. Kobe-esque shots. They mostly looked like really bad low percentage shots but he was obviously making some of them. Saw shots like that in another highlights video. Not seeing much of a 1-2 dribble pull up. Facing up the basket well. Just those off balance heavily contested ones.

According to our friends at Synergy, Caleb ranks just in the 33rd percentile on non-dunk finishes?grading out as ?Average?.

When you look at his percentages, Wilson is converting only 44.4% of his non-dunk attempts at the rim. Now, it?s worth noting that he ranks in just the second percentile in non-dunk shot attempts. This is because Wilson has 62 dunks on the season?which ranks in the 93rd percentile. In other words, Caleb is looking to put his armpits in the rim.

Hard to know what to make of that. They do not give numbers on how many non-dunk attempts he actually had.

They had a list of successful NBA players who finished in the bottom 20% for non-dunk rim finishes while in college. Jaylen Brown was on that list.

Wilson has had 35 of his 62 dunks come from the halfcourt

Writer points out a positive AST:TOV ratio. 2.7 assists to 2.0 turnovers. A near 1.4:1.0 AST:TOV ratio.

Defense

Writer shows some defensive highlights. Active team defender. Looking to help. Good weak side shot blocker. Good hands. I'd like to see a bit more of his lateral quickness / on-ball defense. Not sure that is as good defensively. Looks A bit raggedy on help D. Relying more on athleticism than positioning. Often not in a defensive stance. His blocks & steals numbers are comparable to Cooper Flagg.

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He does not look like a top athlete to me. More of a solid athlete who is a good leaper. Some of his drives look clunky / mechanical more than fluid.

[CFAN38]

If I am Chicago, I am disappointed Caleb Wilson is the guy at #4. I don't want another PF. They already have one in Matas Buzelis. They have another slow forward in Giddey.

Buzelis looks athletic enough to defend down two positions and defend opponent guards allowing Giddey to defend SFs and C Wilson to defend PFs. So that might work. Caleb Wilson and Buzelis both lackluster outside shooters though. Offensive spacing may be an issue. Perhaps just a short term issue though. Maybe you just live with it for now and hope those two guys (3 guys really = Giddey) develop their 3-ball enough.

Bulls desperately need a guard or a center. I wonder if they will consider trading the pick. Maybe trading down a slot or three and picking up one of the PGs instead while picking up some other asset in the process.

If I'm the Bulls I would be thrilled with any of the top 4. Wilson as the likely pick is a fit I really like. Paired with Buzelis the Bulls would have two hyper athletic 6'9+ forwards with high ceilings to develop. The need at center can likely be addressed at #15.

[Who]

Caleb Wilson vs John Collins

John Collins was a sophomore. Wilson a freshman.

Caleb Wilson = 24gms 31.3mpg 19.8ppg 57.8% FG 71.3% FT on 7.5 FTA 9.4rpg 2.7apg vs 2 turnovers per game 1.5spg 1.4bpg

John Collins = 33gms 26.6mpg 19.2ppg 62.2% FG 74.5% on 6.7 FTA 9.8rpg 0.5apg vs 1.8 turnovers per game 0.6spg 1.6bpg

Similar statistical profiles and similar physical size (6-9 220lbs). Both strong leapers. Good athletes.

John Collins and Caleb Wilson averaged a similar number of points and rebounds per game with Collins doing so in considerably less minutes (26.6mpg to 31.3mpg). Both players averaged similar FG%, FT%, FTA, scoring efficiency. Both players average similar blocks per game. With Collins having the advantage in most of those categories.
 
The standout in Caleb Wilson's favour is the assists. 2.7 assists to 2 turnovers per game. A 1.4:1.0 AST:TOV ratio. John Collins was a black hole and continued to be black hole throughout his NBA career with 0.6apg against 1.8 turnovers pre game. So a 0.33:1.0 AST:TOV ratio. Caleb Wilson also averaged considerably more steals (1.5spg to 0.6spg).

When you look at the per 100 possession numbers, the advantages get larger for John Collins as they take the difference in minutes into account. 40.1pts per 100 vs 36.9pts per 100. 20.6rpg vs 17.5rpg. 3.3bpg to 2.6bpg. Wilson's advantage in steals is 2.8 to 1.3. Overall, stocks advantage 5.4 to 4.6. Wilson's assists advantage 5.0 to 1.1. Wilson a 62.6% TS. J Collins a 65.8% TS.

[Who]

Jay Williams Bold Caleb Wilson Comparisons

"When I first saw him this year, I thought the bar is Jermaine O'Neal and the ceiling is Kevin Garnett. Now when I watch him play, the bar seems like Kevin Garnett and the ceiling seems more like Giannis [Antetokounmpo]," Williams said on "Get Up." "It feels like that's where his ceiling could be."

[Goldstar88]

Jay Williams Bold Caleb Wilson Comparisons

?When I first saw him this year, I thought the bar is Jermaine O?Neal and the ceiling is Kevin Garnett. Now when I watch him play, the bar seems like Kevin Garnett and the ceiling seems more like Giannis [Antetokounmpo],? Williams said on ?Get Up.? ?It feels like that?s where his ceiling could be.?

 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Jay Williams Bold Caleb Wilson Comparisons

?When I first saw him this year, I thought the bar is Jermaine O?Neal and the ceiling is Kevin Garnett. Now when I watch him play, the bar seems like Kevin Garnett and the ceiling seems more like Giannis [Antetokounmpo],? Williams said on ?Get Up.? ?It feels like that?s where his ceiling could be.?

Lol - a bit excessive, but I'm a huge Wilson fan.

I'd take him over Peterson. Problem is that Utah got that pick and already has Kessler, Markannen, and JJJ. I'd be worried about his growth in that setting.

I would definitely take him over Boozer. I think Boozer will have a Julius Randle type career, which is a really good player, but not a cornerstone piece. Wilson has a chance to be a cornerstone.

[Who]

Two youtube clips related to this topic.

First Video

Field of 68 debate Caleb Wilson vs Cam Boozer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3zhkEJu4wQ

Favoured Cam Boozer for MEM over Wilson. Both thought Caleb Wilson would go higher in other drafts. That he is only 4th because this draft is so good. They also used the K-Love comparison that I have liked with Cam Boozer.

The Field of 68 had another video from 4 months ago (January) arguing that Caleb Wilson was the best player in the country. Not necessarily the best prospect but the best player. One of their guys in that video had Caleb Wilson 2nd behind Dybantsa with Peterson 3rd. Not much analysis in the video though.

Second Video

Lou Williams says that WAS should consider passing on AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson for the #1 pick and select Caleb Wilson instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS5MONMOZQw

Lou Will mentioning the KG comparisons. Also Duncan and Durant comps.

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Lots of positive comments about Caleb Wilson's mentality from many of these articles / videos I have seen about him.