Two of these things happen and we win:
1. Shoot above 38% from three
2. Keep Embiid and Maxey below 50 points combined
3. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard combine for 35 points
4. Fewer than 10 turnovers
And we win
1. Shoot above 38% from three --> considering the team's swings on this, it's probable
2. Keep Embiid and Maxey below 50 points combined --> I'd drop this to 40. Philly has several other players that can provide offense as we've seen so far so we'd need to really force those other players to really score.
3. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard combine for 35 points --> don't see this happening unless PP goes for 25+ himself.
4. Fewer than 10 turnovers --> wishful thinking. they're just way too sloppy this series.
I think we're going to win based on other factors:
- C's in the J's era have always been a tougher team on the road than home.
- Highly unlikely the C's shoot that poorly 2 games in a row.
- While Joe sucks at in-game adjustments, he should be able to come up with a plan to begin this game that will address the issues with defending Philly that came up in the last game. this could range from doubling Embiid down low and hoping Philly goes back to being ice cold from deep or screaming at Q that he has to be smarter with fouling. C's are better if Embiid has to actually shoot the ball to make a basket than having Q try to stop the bucket with a dumb foul. Embiid may make some or most of those shots but it'll keep Q available for most if not all of the game. This could also involve playing more Walsh and Hugo to defend Maxie/George/Edgecombe as well as more Baylor if Sam isn't hitting his shots. It could also involve more Garza time in place of Vuc who was useless on D and sucked on offense. Garza may not be much, if any, improvement on defense but he'll make Embiid work for those defensive boards as well as have to defend Garza as far out as the 3 point line.