NBA Season 2025-26

[Celtics2021]

Cam Thomas was waived by the Bucks.  Looks like he is the front-runner for this year?s Latrell Sprewell award for bad free agency decisions.

[Goldstar88]

Looks like Moody just dislocated his kneecap trying to dunk. Yikes..

[radiohead]

Looks like Moody just dislocated his kneecap trying to dunk. Yikes..

It was a non contact injury too. Hopefully he can come back from this gruesome injury.

[Donoghus]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

[Goldstar88]

Wemby states his case for MVP.

Wembanyama, who won NBA Rookie of the Year two years ago and was generally considered a lock for Defensive Player of the Year last season until he had to be shut down while dealing with deep vein thrombosis, has a three-part campaign pitch. "My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race. I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league," Wembanyama said. "Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team. ... The third argument would be that offense impact is not just points."

[aefgogreen]

Wemby states his case for MVP.

Wembanyama, who won NBA Rookie of the Year two years ago and was generally considered a lock for Defensive Player of the Year last season until he had to be shut down while dealing with deep vein thrombosis, has a three-part campaign pitch. "My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race. I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league," Wembanyama said. "Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team. ... The third argument would be that offense impact is not just points."

I'd probably still go with SGA, but he has a case.

[Who]

Spurs with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
Spurs without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Similar with/without numbers as Jokic and SGA. Both Denver and OKC have played surprisingly well without their stars this season. DEN 1 extra loss taking them off 55 win pace without Jokic which would have had all 3 teams at a similar win rate without their MVP candidate.

DEN with Jokic = 35 wins 22 losses (50 win pace)
DEN without Jokic = 10 wins 6 losses (51 win pace)

OKC with SGA = 49 wins 11 losses (67 win pace)
OKC without SGA = 8 wins 4 losses (55 win pace)

SGA with the biggest difference in terms W-L with or without you.

Some notes

DEN had a bad stretch when Jokic came back from injury losing 10 of 16 games. Jokic was up and down at first performance wise and did not look fit. Still getting back into top shape now despite putting up huge numbers. DEN starting to play better as well. Won 6 of their last 8. Anyway, outside of that 16 game stretch when Jokic just returned from injury, DEN would have been 29 wins 12 losses with Jokic for a 58 win pace. I think that will prove more indicative of DEN's quality come playoff time.

DEN have played 73 games. A Gordon has only played in 31 of them (3rd best player). C Braun has only played in 37 of them (starter). So they have been down 2 starters for half the season.

SAS have been relatively healthy. All key players playing between 57-73 games.

OKC have been without J-Dub most of the season. He has played only 27 games. That is their 2nd best player. Hartenstein has played only 40 games. Another starter. Ajay Mitchell and Caruso at 48-49 games apiece.

So I'd say OKC and DEN have more upside to SAS if they can get those stars / starters back healthy for the playoffs.

[Redz]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

[Donoghus]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

The opponents for those curious.

Washington, Toronto, Indiana (the loss), Sacramento, Houston, Phoenix, & Milwaukee.   Some decent teams and some flotsam.

[Who]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

I like the with or without you stats.

I do believe they give a good measurement of a player's value to his team. That measurement becomes more valuable the larger the sample size is. 40 games without a player more valuable than 20 games which is more valuable than 5 games without a player. It eliminates some of the noise.

That sample size also becomes much more valuable when you start adding multiple years together because the sample size gets larger. You can see interesting trends year on year + interesting overall career / prime numbers for how much of a difference that player was making to his team.

When you do that, you can see individual years where a player's absence shows no difference to W-L but over 5-7 years shows a clear picture of the team being much better with that player on the floor than off it.

So, the value of the stat is relative to the sample size. I do consider it an excellent stat over several years (5-10+ years) and an interesting single season stat. How interesting the single season is depends on the sample size. It is variable.

[No Nickname]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

Celtics2021, can you make a case for how Vooch would accept, and how the C's would structure, a deal that was "close to the minimum" so that they could both resign him and use the MLE?

Are there any other options like cutting players that would allow for Vooch to get a higher salary and still allow the C's to use the MLE?

Thanks

[Celtics2021]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

Celtics2021, can you make a case for how Vooch would accept, and how the C's would structure, a deal that was "close to the minimum" so that they could both resign him and use the MLE?

Are there any other options like cutting players that would allow for Vooch to get a higher salary and still allow the C's to use the MLE?

Thanks

The goodness of his heart and a softer market than he hoped?

It really depends on the market.  If he is only looking at the taxpayer MLE, that is approx. $6 million, while the minimum is $3.9 million. If the Celtics sign him to a one-year deal, they get the benefit of him only costing $2.4 million (because 1-year vet deals are subsidized) while he gets the benefit of a no-trade clause.

I don?t know how strong of a free agent market he will have, but I could see him in the group of players limited to the taxpayer MLE. He fits the profile as someone who turns 36 in October who is a stater on a bad team but probably only a backup on a good one, and who would like to experience playoff success before his career is over.  But could also see a team that strikes out on other targets offer him a large one year-deal to try free agency again the following summer.

The other option is to go into the tax if he comes in at the taxpayer MLE range himself.  We cannot really cut players to get there, because aside from Hauser (and I guess Pritchard) the rest of our bench is at or near the minimum, so moving one of them just requires replacing that player with someone of similar cost.

[Roy H.]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

Celtics2021, can you make a case for how Vooch would accept, and how the C's would structure, a deal that was "close to the minimum" so that they could both resign him and use the MLE?

Are there any other options like cutting players that would allow for Vooch to get a higher salary and still allow the C's to use the MLE?

Thanks

Some basic numbers, using Spotrac's numbers (which presume a tax line of $201,690,000, which is $690,000 more than Shams reported):

Salaries allocated:  $182,344,295

Room under tax:  $19,345,705

That's if we bring back Jordan Walsh, Max Gulga and Amari Wiliams.  Technically, it's possible to waive all of those guys, and replace them with guys making the rookie minimum of $1,358,084.  That's very unlikely, but it would save us a total of $2,633,787 if we dumped all three.

But, starting from $19,345,705 seems like a sensible choice.  From that, we would subtract our first rounder's salary.  If we land at #27, that's $2,941,440.  That brings us to $16,404,265.

We'd have 13 players under contract, meaning we can safely cut Max Shulga.  That brings us back up to $18,555,182.

The MLE is $15.1 million or so.  So, if we used that full amount on somebody, we'd have very little to give Vuc.  Our cap space would actually be lower than Vuc's actual salary; the only way we'd be able to use the full MLE and sign Vuc is if he agreed to a one year vet minimum deal, which is subsidized by the league.

The good news is that we do have enough to offer Vuc more than the Taxpayer MLE ($6.1 million), and can give an outside veteran something north of the MLE as well.  So, for instance, we could give Vuc a two year, $18 million deal and afford to offer the same deal to a free agent.

Now, if ownership wanted to go back into the tax, that would open up another $8 million or so without really affecting our flexibility that much in the short term.  Under that circumstance, we could sign somebody to the full MLE and sign Vuc for around $11 million.  Of course, going into the tax means we don't reset the repeater's tax, which may be a non-starter for ownership.

[Vermont Green]

I think I am seeing the same thing as Roy and C2021. For 2026-27, we have 12 players signed (if you include Shulga).  It is 13 if you assume the first round pick is signed. Using Roy's value for that rookie deal, that would leave us at $185,285,735 for these 13 with roughly $16M to spare to stay below the tax.  Shugla may get waived and replaced with another contract. 

But Queta is already accounted for in this at $2,667,944.  Queta's contract is non-guaranteed, but BOS does not need to pay him any more than this amount for 2026-27.  I believe they could extend him for some years beyond 2026-27, but I am not sure they would pay him more in 2026-27.  Am I missing something?

If you assume that Queta's 2026-27 salary does not change, they would have about $16M below the tax to cover the 14th and possibly 15th roster spots.  Even if you assume BOS uses the TPMLE (about $6M) on a vet, that still leaves $10M for Vucevic, which should be more than enough. 

I think the likely transaction is that Shulga does get waived and is replaced by Harper.  Then BOS would still have spots 14 and 15 and something less than $16M due to Harper costing a little more than Shulga.  I suspect that there will be a lot of decent players settling for contracts in the range of the TPMLE ($6M'ish) so BOS should be able to keep Vucevic and add another decent vet if they want.