NBA Season 2025-26

[Celtics2021]

Cam Thomas was waived by the Bucks.  Looks like he is the front-runner for this year?s Latrell Sprewell award for bad free agency decisions.

[Goldstar88]

Looks like Moody just dislocated his kneecap trying to dunk. Yikes..

[radiohead]

Looks like Moody just dislocated his kneecap trying to dunk. Yikes..

It was a non contact injury too. Hopefully he can come back from this gruesome injury.

[Donoghus]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

[Goldstar88]

Wemby states his case for MVP.

Wembanyama, who won NBA Rookie of the Year two years ago and was generally considered a lock for Defensive Player of the Year last season until he had to be shut down while dealing with deep vein thrombosis, has a three-part campaign pitch. "My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race. I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league," Wembanyama said. "Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team. ... The third argument would be that offense impact is not just points."

[aefgogreen]

Wemby states his case for MVP.

Wembanyama, who won NBA Rookie of the Year two years ago and was generally considered a lock for Defensive Player of the Year last season until he had to be shut down while dealing with deep vein thrombosis, has a three-part campaign pitch. "My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race. I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league," Wembanyama said. "Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team. ... The third argument would be that offense impact is not just points."

I'd probably still go with SGA, but he has a case.

[Who]

Spurs with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
Spurs without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Similar with/without numbers as Jokic and SGA. Both Denver and OKC have played surprisingly well without their stars this season. DEN 1 extra loss taking them off 55 win pace without Jokic which would have had all 3 teams at a similar win rate without their MVP candidate.

DEN with Jokic = 35 wins 22 losses (50 win pace)
DEN without Jokic = 10 wins 6 losses (51 win pace)

OKC with SGA = 49 wins 11 losses (67 win pace)
OKC without SGA = 8 wins 4 losses (55 win pace)

SGA with the biggest difference in terms W-L with or without you.

Some notes

DEN had a bad stretch when Jokic came back from injury losing 10 of 16 games. Jokic was up and down at first performance wise and did not look fit. Still getting back into top shape now despite putting up huge numbers. DEN starting to play better as well. Won 6 of their last 8. Anyway, outside of that 16 game stretch when Jokic just returned from injury, DEN would have been 29 wins 12 losses with Jokic for a 58 win pace. I think that will prove more indicative of DEN's quality come playoff time.

DEN have played 73 games. A Gordon has only played in 31 of them (3rd best player). C Braun has only played in 37 of them (starter). So they have been down 2 starters for half the season.

SAS have been relatively healthy. All key players playing between 57-73 games.

OKC have been without J-Dub most of the season. He has played only 27 games. That is their 2nd best player. Hartenstein has played only 40 games. Another starter. Ajay Mitchell and Caruso at 48-49 games apiece.

So I'd say OKC and DEN have more upside to SAS if they can get those stars / starters back healthy for the playoffs.

[Redz]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

[Donoghus]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

The opponents for those curious.

Washington, Toronto, Indiana (the loss), Sacramento, Houston, Phoenix, & Milwaukee.   Some decent teams and some flotsam.

[Who]

Wemby and Spurs

with Wemby = 44 wins 13 losses (63 win pace)
without Wemby = 10 wins 5 losses (55 win pace)

Celts are 6-1 without JB this year.  Does this diminish his value?  I don't believe so, but I think a deeper dive is necessary to if this is a major measure of a guy's value to the team.  Or maybe you're saying it's not.

I like the with or without you stats.

I do believe they give a good measurement of a player's value to his team. That measurement becomes more valuable the larger the sample size is. 40 games without a player more valuable than 20 games which is more valuable than 5 games without a player. It eliminates some of the noise.

That sample size also becomes much more valuable when you start adding multiple years together because the sample size gets larger. You can see interesting trends year on year + interesting overall career / prime numbers for how much of a difference that player was making to his team.

When you do that, you can see individual years where a player's absence shows no difference to W-L but over 5-7 years shows a clear picture of the team being much better with that player on the floor than off it.

So, the value of the stat is relative to the sample size. I do consider it an excellent stat over several years (5-10+ years) and an interesting single season stat. How interesting the single season is depends on the sample size. It is variable.

[No Nickname]

Do your thing Celtics2021

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
The NBA has informed teams that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27 -- $1M lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue, sources tell ESPN. Minimum salary $149M, tax level $201M, first apron $209M, second apron $222M also $1M lower each.

Not much to do.  We are still in essentially the same place we were before.  If we want to use the entire Simons TPE we will need to send out a larger salary, most likely Hauser.  Barring a trade we will be able to either use the MLE or resign Vooch if the goal is to stay under the tax, unless Vooch comes in very close to the minimum.  It gives the Celtics a little less room to work with, but the situation is not too different than it was before.

Gotcha.  Thanks.

Celtics2021, can you make a case for how Vooch would accept, and how the C's would structure, a deal that was "close to the minimum" so that they could both resign him and use the MLE?

Are there any other options like cutting players that would allow for Vooch to get a higher salary and still allow the C's to use the MLE?

Thanks