2025 CBlog Historical Post-Draft Season: Sim & Voting

[Donoghus]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.

For sure. But even a roster that is hot garbage that has an MVP level player on it should be winning a lot more than 21 wins 61 losses.

It really depends on the roster to an extent now, doesn't it?  Even an MVP level player can only do so much as one player when the guys around him aren't good.

I see that more for an All-Star level player than for an MVP candidate.

It is hard to see someone like LeBron ever having a 21 win team while LeBron is in his prime. Or Jordan. Or Bird. Or Magic.

It's all hypothetical.

[Who]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.

For sure. But even a roster that is hot garbage that has an MVP level player on it should be winning a lot more than 21 wins 61 losses.

It really depends on the roster to an extent now, doesn't it?  Even an MVP level player can only do so much as one player when the guys around him aren't good.

I see that more for an All-Star level player than for an MVP candidate.

It is hard to see someone like LeBron ever having a 21 win team while LeBron is in his prime. Or Jordan. Or Bird. Or Magic.

It's all hypothetical.

Well, if we ignore MVP candidates on their strong teams. Concentrate on MVP candidates who were on bad rosters and compare apples to apples. Then see how T-Mac compares to them.

[Who]

I was watching a pair of T-Mac games from that 2004 team recently. I forget what games they were exactly. Forgettable games. I probably picked them for having a big T-Mac outing or for their opponent.

It was interesting watching him and how little he impacted / improved his teammates around him.

Main two reasons for this were (1) bad defensive effort. He was dogging it. (2) shot selection. Settling for too man bad contested long jump-shots. Trigger happy as well. Shooting too often. Not playing team offense.

Commentators were critical of McGrady's play as well.

--------------------------

Even when you look at old Michael Jordan on those Wizards teams. He was still playing with effort on defense. He wasn't as athletic as before. But he was always talking, rotating on D, and usually more effective defensively than you would expect someone that old to be. Those Washington teams generally had positive defenses when Jordan was healthy and would then fall off without Jordan. Without his leadership on D. Guys like Stackhouse or a young Rip Hamilton could not replicate that.

[Moranis]

You don't need to compare TMac to the very best.  Just look at some of his contemporary MVP level players.  Dirk, never worse than 41-41 (only year not in the playoffs) after his rookie year until the last couple seasons.  2 Finals with the 1 title, a WCF, and a bunch of 2nd round.  The Thunder never won less than 47 games with Westbrook and no Durant and that includes the year without George when Magic cas off Oladipo was the 2nd best player (and Andre Roberson was the 2nd leading scorer in the playoffs).  Even the Sixers with Iverson never bottomed out like that. They had the 33 win team when AI played 47 games, and that roster was terrible and they still won 33 games.

Bad team seasons happen, but you can't overlook them when the player doesn't win ever and all their teams get better when they leave.  TMac has had some bad luck with other players health, but he has played with several HOFers, which is a lot different than KG in Minny.  The lack of winning in general coupled with his really poor play in big moments and he belongs no where on that list. 

[smokeablount]

So sorry for the delay everyone. I had some health stuff pop up and then was with family over Labor Day weekend. I apologize for not providing an update and stopping any momentum. I have just simmed the other semifinal after updating Roy?s minutes.

[smokeablount]

CONFERENCE FINALS - #3 Moranis defeats #2 Roy Hobbs 4-2

This matchup went as Luka went. When he was on and leading the Cavs with a dominant supporting starting 5, they were not to be beaten. LeBron and Shaq also took turns carrying a heavy load as JB and Wemby played more of a support role. The Celtics made some roster changes, starting Oladipo and DeAndre Jordan and giving Sabonis heavy minutes off the bench in a role he excelled in. But what was surprising was Giannis?s inefficiency in this series, perhaps bothered by Wemby, and Curry not really shooting the ball enough as an elite first option, other than in the first game which Roy won. Ideally the Celtics would work best with Giannis and Curry maximizing their high quality looks, but Curry never led the team in shots after game 1 and often wasn?t even #2, while Giannis didn?t shoot well. Sabonis excelled in a bench alpha role and Brand and DJs defense and rebounding helped the starters. I expected this one to go 7, but Mo took care of business.

Moranis advances to THE FINALS, which will occur early this week!

#1 SAB

Vs.

#3 Moranis

[Who]

I am curious about the McGrady Magic teams.

2004 Squad

G: Ty Lue, 37yo Rod Strickland / Shammond Williams
G: Keith Bogans, Goran Giricek / DeShawn Stevenson
F: Tracy McGrady
F: Juwan Howard, Drew Gooden
C: Andrew DeClerq, Steven Hunter, Zaza Pachulia

So they lacked a true forward behind McGrady. That was due to the injury to Pat Garritty who played only 2 games that season.

The PG position is the clear weak link. Ty Lue was a below average backup PG (say 45th-60th rank PG). The backups behind him were 3rd stringers. Rod Strickland was old old. Time to retire old. Shammond Williams was somewhat similar to Ty Lue as a below average backup PG to 3rd stringer.

The SG position wasn't too bad. I have always liked Keith Bogans. Solid two way role player. Goran Giricek was a good rotation player. A below average starting SG to an above average backup SG. They traded him 2/3rds of the way through the season for D Stevenson who was still very young. Not as good as the Wizards version a few years later. He was a below average backup SG.

The big man rotation wasn't that bad. Juwan Howard and Drew Gooden were both legitimate starting caliber PFs. Andrew DeClercq was a solid defensive center. He was a low end starter to middle of the pack backup center. Steven Hunter was an average to slightly below average backup center. He had the same role for Nash's Suns the following season.

Those are mostly legitimate NBA players. The only 3rd string caliber talent is the backup PG slot. It is usually the 3rd stringers in the rotation that kill you.

I thought the Magic's coaching hurt them. Not enough playing time for DeClercq and S Hunter. Trying to play Drew Gooden as a center alongside Juwan Howard at PF killed their defense. Both guys were among the weaker defensive starting PFs in the league. Neither guy could legitimately play C. Either player got killed there whenever they were tried out there. Orlando finished 29th out of 29 teams in defensive efficiency that season.

2003 Squad

The team went 42-40.

They kinda had two teams due to the big midseason trade.

G: Darrell Armstrong, Jacque Vaughn
G: Tracy McGrady
F: Mike Miller
F: Pat Garritty
C: S Kemp (fat Kemp), DeClercq, S Hunter, P Burke

They got 29 games out of Grant Hill. They were 14 wins 15 losses with Hill compared to 28 wins 25 losses without him. They lacked wing depth in large part due to Grant Hill getting injured. They planned on a three wing rotation of McGrady, Hill, M Miller.

They had no starting caliber PF. Pat Garritty was a good bench PF. The center position is similar in quality to the 2004 squad. Darrell Armstrong was a quality starting PG. Upgrade there. J Vaughn was of a similar caliber as Ty Lue. Mike Miller was superior to Giricek.

G: D Armstrong, Jacque Vaughn
G: G Giricek
F: T McGrady
F: D Gooden, P Garritty
C: DeClercq, S Kemp (fat Kemp), S Hunter, P Burke

I liked this team after the trade. I liked Drew Gooden. He never developed much though. It gave them better balance. A true PF in Gooden. A skilled big to play alongside their limited centers. Giricek served as a quality replacement for Mike Miller - a downgrade but a smaller downgrade relative to the upgrade they got at PF with Gooden.

2003 vs 2004

Is that 2003 team really 21 wins better talent wise?

There is an upgrade at PG with Darrell Armstrong. The wing and big talent is similar. The 2004 big man rotation is comparable to 2003. Garritty misses with injury while Juwan Howard comes in to replace him. The 2004 team has better wing depth with Bogans coming in.

Yes, the 2003 team is better - because of D Armstrong. But should there really be that large of a difference from a 21 win team to a 42 win team?

2002 Squad

Only 14 games from Grant Hill. The team went 44-38.

G: Darrell Armstrong, Troy Hudson
G: Tracy McGrady, Jud Buechler (33yo)
F: Mike Miller, Monty Williams
F: Pat Garritty
C: H Grant (36yo), Pat Ewing (39yo), DeClercq

Troy Hudson was one of the top backup PGs. His strong play got him an off-season move and starting gig in Minnesota next to KG.

Buechler and Monty Williams were low level backup wings. Horace Grant wasn't a true center but he played there due to the weakness of Pat Ewing / DeClercq. They went for offense with Garritty / H Grant over defense with H Grant / DeClercq.

They were 7th in off efficiency and 16th in def efficiency. The defensive efficiency is impressive considering they were going small at PF and little at center.

2001 Squad

A 44 win team. Grant Hill played only 4 games.

G: Darrell Armstrong, Troy Hudson
G: Tracy McGrady
F: Mike Miller, Monty Williams
F: Bo Outlaw, Pat Garritty, Don Reid
C: DeClercq, J Amaechi, M Doleac

This is my favourite McGrady Magic team because of Bo Outlaw. I loved watching his hustle plays on this team.

DeClercq was the starting center on this team. As he was in 2004. Ameachi was a below average backup C to 3rd stringer. Doleac was a rookie and an average backup C. They had a quality 3rd string PF in Don Reid. So 6 legit NBA bigs.

2004 vs 2001

Bo Outlaw was the 2001 team's best big. A defender / rebounder. The 2004 team had offensive PFs in Juwan Howard and Drew Gooden instead. DeClercq was the starter on both teams. S Hunter was an average backup which is comparable to Doleac / Ameachi.

The PG position is much better. Darrell Armstrong was in peak condition. An average starting PG. Troy Hudson was an above average backup PG. Mike Miller is the best wing on either 2004 or 2001 team. Pat Garritty doubled up as a PF/SF to give them more SF depth. He was injured on the 2004 team. The 2004 team had Giricek / Bogans instead of M Miller.

[Who]

I finished the McGrady episode / podcast. There was nothing compelling in the episode. Mainly guys reminscing over early 2000s fandom when McGrady was one of the most fun guys in the league.

* Orlando got better defensively when McGrady went to the bench in 2003 & 2004. Criticized his off-ball defense & screen navigation. McGrady always struggled to track smaller quicker SGs running off of screens. He should have played more SF than SG (me saying this, not them - that would have helped his D). They criticized his effort on D in Orlando. Said he did better in Houston under Van Gundy. Was far more active defensively in Toronto before he became a scorer. Not a high motor player. Hard for him to maintain defensive effort.

* 32ppg in the slow down defensive league of 2003 is the equivalent to 40ppg today. I agree.

* They saw him improving from 2001 to 2002 to 2003. Then he started having back problems in 2004 and in physical decline from then on. Still a very good player but not as athletic / dominant. 2003 was peak McGrady. So short window to view peak McGrady. Made him harder to evaluate compared to other players. I agree somewhat with this. I view McGrady 2001-05. I find his later Houston years to be a lesser version.

* 12 long twos per 100 possessions. Hit 43% of them. Solid number. Kobe took 9 long twos and hit 39% of them during the same period. Interestingly Kidd also took 9 long twos and hit 39% of them again during the same period. Iverson was also a 39% shooter on long twos. Advantage McGrady.

* Rim finishes was a lower number than you would expect. McGrady had amazing dunks / finishes but he also took a lot of finger rolls / flip shots which dragged his percentages down.


I thought their (Thinking Basketball) info was better on other guys. They focused more on memories / reminiscing with McGrady than the other players. Other player's evaluations were more analytical. More reasoning. More stats. Better arguments for their placement. Less so with McGrady.

[Moranis]

I thought their (Thinking Basketball) info was better on other guys. They focused more on memories / reminiscing with McGrady than the other players. Other player's evaluations were more analytical. More reasoning. More stats. Better arguments for their placement. Less so with McGrady.

Probably because his ranking is indefensible with actual numbers. Only thing you can do is reminisce.

[Moranis]

CONFERENCE FINALS - #3 Moranis defeats #2 Roy Hobbs 4-2

This matchup went as Luka went. When he was on and leading the Cavs with a dominant supporting starting 5, they were not to be beaten. LeBron and Shaq also took turns carrying a heavy load as JB and Wemby played more of a support role. The Celtics made some roster changes, starting Oladipo and DeAndre Jordan and giving Sabonis heavy minutes off the bench in a role he excelled in. But what was surprising was Giannis?s inefficiency in this series, perhaps bothered by Wemby, and Curry not really shooting the ball enough as an elite first option, other than in the first game which Roy won. Ideally the Celtics would work best with Giannis and Curry maximizing their high quality looks, but Curry never led the team in shots after game 1 and often wasn?t even #2, while Giannis didn?t shoot well. Sabonis excelled in a bench alpha role and Brand and DJs defense and rebounding helped the starters. I expected this one to go 7, but Mo took care of business.

Moranis advances to THE FINALS, which will occur early this week!

#1 SAB

Vs.

#3 Moranis

Thanks for doing this. These write ups are great and it adds some fun to after the draft.

[Who]

25 Jason Kidd
24 Jayson Tatum
23 Dwight Howard
22 Draymond Green
21 Manu Ginobili
20 James Harden
19 Tracy McGrady
18 Luka Doncic
17 Joel Embiid
16 Anthony Davis
15 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14 Steve Nash
13 Dirk Nowitzki

Thinking Basketball 21st century adds Nash and Dirk to the list.

Episode 6 was Embiid, AD and Shai. It was an interesting episode. The info on SGA was good.

They talked about how SGA's regular season ranks up there among the best guard seasons of All-Time but that his playoff performances over last year and year before have dropped off from his regular season play.

They talk about this idea of "lone star numbers" which is when your co-star is on the bench how does your production go when the offense revolves around you. So when J-Dub went to the bench, SGA was putting up 41pts per 75 possessions (equivalent to per 36min, so roughly 48min game 100 poss = 36min 75poss as a form of adjusting numbers for pace and putting them at a number of minutes [36min] a star would play rather than 48min numbers) on +10% TS%. OKC was +22pts per 100 poss in these lineups. Crazy effectiveness.

They compare SGA to another all-time great guard Michael Jordan. Jordan would see his scoring remain steady in playoffs, slight bump in efficiency, massive jump in playmaking. MJ's playmaking would double in the playoffs. In contrast, SGA's scoring efficiency plummets (110 TS regular season to 100 TS in playoffs meaing well above average to average scoring efficiency) + his playmaking shrinks as well. They did not give an exact number. They said his box creation (playmaking stat Ben Taylor created) dropped by 4 per 100 poss which is a large decrease.

They were critical of SGA's teams playoff offenses. I felt too critical. They said they were clunky which is true but they were still posting good numbers. OKC was 3rd in playoff offensive efficiency when they won the title this past season. I looked at each round wondering if their easy first round opponent juiced the numbers but there numbers were relatively consistent series to series. So SGA does not produce amazing offenses in the playoffs but they were very good offenses. I felt they were too critical of him here.

OKC has been 11pts better with SGA on the floor than off the floor over last 2 years.

They had another comparison for SGA to DeMar DeRozan. This one revolved around his team getting less paint finishes when SGA was on the floor. Similar to DeRozan. SGA creates 3s for teammates but not paint finishes. This is in part a limitation of his passing / playmaking. SGA also takes a lot of midrange shots (like DeRozan) which lessens team paint finishes as well. They said OKC was 7-9 points worse on paint scoring when SGA was on the floor vs off the floor.

McGrady was a guy who also showed no impact (neutral) on team scoring in the paint but he did create a bunch of 3s for teammates (like SGA). Embiid had a similar signal. Philly would slightly improve paint scoring when Embiid was on the floor but that was all Embiid's individual scoring. His teammates paint finishes went way down.

OKC's playoff offenses did not change much whether SGA was on the floor or on the bench over the last 2 years. A negative signal for his impact offensively in the playoffs.

Ben Taylor believes OKC organizes their offense around SGA to the detriment of easy offense for other players. Other than transition opportunities mostly from turnovers, OKC do not get much easy offense. SGA does not create easy offense for teammates.

SGA is a master at avoiding turnovers. Also easier to do when you are shooting more passing less. But this has a team wide impact due to how high his usage is.

Anyway, I thought that SGA info was excellent. Worth sharing. That whole episode (#6 in the series) was very good. They did Embiid and AD as well in that one.