2025 CBlog Historical Post-Draft Season: Sim & Voting

[smokeablount]

ROUND 1 - #1 SAB defeats #8 Celtic Fan Forever 4-1

Again, this series was close and could have swung differently. It was a battle of the starters, as 4-5 of each teams starters scored in double digits every game but without anyone really eclipsing 25 points, and with not much bench support until SABs top bench players got on the board in the clincher. The defense of CFF bothered SAB, typically the most efficient team in the pool, who was much less efficient than normal. SAB cruised in game 1 but lost game 2 when CP3 had a 22-10-15 triple double, and CFF only lost by 1 point in a decisive game 3 in which no one broke 100 points. Game 4 was a relatively close SAB win on the road and in game 5 SAB finally got their trademark blowout at home. Another high seed low seed 4-1 series that was far from the breeze it appears, and we already know the sim under-appreciates the fantastic 7th and 8th seeds built by Who and CFF.

SAB advances to Round 2, which I?m going to aim to do later this week!

#1 SAB vs #5 RodyTur10

#2 Roy Hobbs vs #3 Moranis

[Moranis]

Luka dominating is not surprising to me.  Team was designed for him to have the ball and he was incredibly efficient that season.  Also not surprising to see my team dominating on the boards.  I drafted a big team with plus rebounders at every position, which also helps defensively.

The concern I had with Jokic also played out i.e. he is passive. Doesn't take a lot of shots and isn't a mega usage player.  Works much better outside the fantasy setting where his best traits aren't able to be truly maximized. 

[Roy H.]

I think a matchup between Cleveland and Boston would be fun.  I'd be tempted to go with an ultra-big front line that included Giannis at SF and Brand at PF, just to see how that played out.

[smokeablount]

CONFERENCE FINALS - #1 SAB defeats #5 RodyTur10 4-0

SAB comes out firing, scoring 138 points in a game 1 in a high scoring affair, outgunning RodyTur10 who scored a potent 126 points. SAB won a low scoring game 2 110-102 and then erupted in game 3, winning 143-121 in another high scoring affair. Then in another low scoring affair, SAB completed the sweep, winning 100-82 to close out the series. Kawhi, Wade, and Lowry led the scoring effort for RodyTur10 and SAB had a balanced scoring attack led by Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who stepped into the 2nd option role here. In half the games the trademark defense of the Raptors was on display, but in the other half SAB?s high octane efficient offense proved too much, and SAB?s defense consistently did just enough for their offense to prevail, though it wasn?t always pretty. It was a great season for RodyTur10, making it to the final 4 and conference finals.

SAB advances to THE FINALS, which will occur next week!

#1 SAB

Vs.

#2 Roy Hobbs vs #3 Moranis

I am going out of town, but trying to do the other conference finals sim/writeup before the weekend. Please bear with me! If I can make time today (work fantasy draft later) I will.

[Who]

Thinking Basketball is currently doing a series where it is ranking the top 25 peaks of the 21st century. I thought it would be interesting to track it since it (mostly) lines up with this CB Historical Draft.

(1) Peaks = so single year only
(2) Similar time frame. 2000-01 til today. 25 seasons 25 best peaks. So ours was 2004-05 til today. So some seasons in early 2000s will be null and void.

It is still ongoing so not finalized yet. Here is where he is so far:

25) Jason Kidd
24) Jayson Tatum
23) Dwight Howard
22) Draymond Green
21) Manu Ginobili
20) James Harden
19) Tracy McGrady
18) Luka Doncic
17) Joel Embiid
16) Anthony Davis
15) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The top 14 still to come. Likely names = Shaq, LeBron, Jokic, Steph, Giannis ... KG, Duncan, Dirk, Kobe, Durant, Wade, Kawhi, CP3, Nash.

McGrady was likely 2002. I don't think his 2005 season makes the cut. Kidd was likely 2001 or 2002. Unclear whether his 2005 or 2006 makes the cut. Probably not. The other guys ranked 15th-25th are all in our time frame.

Shaq, Duncan and KG are all likely in that 2000-05 period. Good likelihood all 3 make it for 2005 onwards. Shaq for 2005. KG & Duncan for some season in between 2005-2008.

Teams

Cleveland = LeBron, Shaq, Luka (#18)
Orlando = Duncan, CP3 ... no P Pierce or R Allen
New York = KG, Nash, Embiid (#17), Ginobili (#21)
Indiana = Jokic, Tatum (#24)
Chicago = Kobe
Boston = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA (#15), J Kidd (#25)
Milwaukee = Dirk, McGrady (#19), Draymond (#22), Dwight (#23)
Toronto = Wade, Kawhi
Philly = Harden (#20), AD (#16)

McGrady and Kidd being likely drop-outs due to time period.

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I know from listening to his opener that Ben Taylor (Thinking Basketball) was disappointed Yao Ming and some others (Brandon Roy) were not in the top 25. He thought they would be before he started the project. He was hoping to spend more time talking about less popular stars (and spend his time talking about what made the so great) but the top 25 was more full with the mainstream superstars than he expected. He needed to go deeper to get to the guys like Yao. A top 50 or something like that. I wonder if he will do that afterwards. That would be interesting.

They said they had 21 top stars. Then 10-12 guys for the final 3-4 spots.

Honourable Mentions

(1) Allen Iverson, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook = high offensive volume with mediocre efficiency.

(2) Paul George, Paul Pierce, Jimmy Butler.

Deep cuts - Baron Davis. Ray Allen. Pau Gasol. More PGs - Deron Williams, Damian Lillard, Jalen Brunson.

Westbrook was the final cut. Pierce and Jimmy next in line.

[Moranis]

I have a hard time seeing how McGrady is ahead of either AI or Westbrook, let alone the other 6 guys on the list.  It isn't like TMac has winning to fall back on. I mean in 00-01, Iverson was MVP and lead the league in ppg and spg, while leading the Sixers to the finals (and he didn't fall off a cliff after that).  Westbrook had a 31.6 ppg triple double season, which was the 1st of 5 seasons in which he averaged a triple double collectively. I just can't see how TMac had a better peak than those 2 guys let alone anyone else on the list.

[Who]

I have a hard time seeing how McGrady is ahead of either AI or Westbrook, let alone the other 6 guys on the list.  It isn't like TMac has winning to fall back on. I mean in 00-01, Iverson was MVP and lead the league in ppg and spg, while leading the Sixers to the finals (and he didn't fall off a cliff after that).  Westbrook had a 31.6 ppg triple double season, which was the 1st of 5 seasons in which he averaged a triple double collectively. I just can't see how TMac had a better peak than those 2 guys let alone anyone else on the list.

I haven't gotten to the McGrady episode yet. I will check back with his reasoning when I do. He has 7 1hr podcasts to get midway through his list.

I think McGrady had some huge on/off numbers in the early 2000s in Orlando. He had that 1 season where he shot the ball very well. 2002-03 32ppg 6.5rpg 5.5apg 45% FG 38.6% 3PT% 9.7 FTAs per game 56.4% TS% against a league average of 51.9%. So well above league average efficiency on high volume. Neither AI or Westbrook could match the efficiency.

With Westbrook, I imagine the case is somewhat similar. Both put up big numbers on first round exit teams. Westbrook's playoff runs came alongside Durant. Even when paired with Paul George, Westbrook was still a first round exit. McGrady never had a teammate of that quality during his stint in Orlando when he peaked.

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They did talk about AI and Westbrook already in the honourable mentions podcast. One thing they held against Westbrook was his shooting percentage on his jump-shots got worse post-Durant. He had low FG% in most of his playoff series especially after Durant.

They were more critical of D-Rose. Westbrook and AI were still able to get to the rim in the playoffs against quality defenses. Rose couldn't do that against Miami in 2011 ECF. Small sample due to injury. Rose didn't supply as much rim pressure as either player. His scoring arsenal wasn't as varied as AI.

Interesting note from the Kidd episode. Kidd shot the same percentage on long 2s as AI. Around 39-41%. Kidd took 9 long Js per 100 poss. Substantial volume.

McGrady doesn't come up until the 5th episode. I am only on 3 now. Draymond and Dwight. I'll check back with his reasoning after I listen to it.

[Who]

Westbrook's TS% in playoffs weighted to league average. So 100 is league average. Above 100 is positive, below 100 is negative.

Westbrook posted a 95 TS+ in Durant's last year. That fell to 93 the following season. Then 89. Then 83 in his final OKC year.

McGrady in his 3 years in the playoffs with Orlando had a 93, a 106, a 108. He had 105 in his first year in Houston against Dallas before falling off after that. 88 and 89 against Utah in the years after that. So peak McGrady had an advantage in regular season and postseason in scoring efficiency.

That was something they were critical of Westbrook about. How poor his efficiency numbers were in the playoffs. And also the fall off in his midrange jump-shooting after Durant left. I don't have numbers for that.

[Moranis]

Orlando won only 21 games one of those years with TMac.  I just don't buy it.  He wasn't a good defender and his teams didn't win, ever.  And even in the playoffs where he was generally solid, he'd have a game 7 where he was 1 of 7 from 3 and got outplayed by Josh Howard (first year in Houston with Ming and Mutombo on team) .Or the 2 years prior when the Magic blew a 3-1 lead and he was 7 of 24 from the field and -18 in game 7 against Detroit, in game 6 he was 11 of 28 and 1 of 6 from 3 (-13 in game), and in game 5 he was 8 of 20 (1 of 5 from 3)  and was -25.  He came up small in the games that mattered most, which is a large reason why he never played more than 7 playoff games in any season (even as a bench player on a Spurs finals team he only had 6 playoff games total).

Also, he left the Raptors and the 1st year after he was gone they went to the 2nd round beating the Knicks who swept them McGrady's last year. Alvin Williams was his replacement and the Raptors got better.  The Magic went from 21 wins to 36 without TMac (they did have rookie Howard thanks to those 21 wins).  TMac got hurt in 08-09 and missed the playoffs, the Rockets went to the 2nd round beating the Blazers and losing to eventual champion Lakers in 7.  So teams got appreciably better when McGrady wasn't on them. 

He is the biggest loser perhaps ever in the sports entire history.  And it isnt like his numbers are so great to make up for the losing. He belongs no where near that list.

[Who]

That 2004 season when Orlando lost 61 games is shocking for an MVP caliber talent.

Are there any other 20 win / 60 loss type seasons for such a player?

You would expect a player of that talent to take his team to 40-45 wins at least. Mark Cuban believed the standard was a 50 win team. I am not sure about that. I think you need a little bit of talent to get to 50 wins. Kobe's Lakers in 2006 and 2007 were 45 and 42 win teams. I think that is the expectation.

Even KG in 2006, 2007. 33 wins and 32 wins. That still rubs me the wrong way. A team with an MVP talent in their prime should at least be in that 40-45 win range.

But back to T-Mac, are there any other examples of this? A guy in his prime with 20 win 60 loss seasons? Or even sub-30 win seasons?

[Who]

Tracy McGrady played 67 games in that 2004 21 win 61 loss season. So it is not like he missed a huge chunk of the season.

I am thinking of Pierce in 2007. The team went only 24 wins and had 58 losses but Pierce played only 47 games. In those 47 games, Pierce had the team with a 20 win 27 loss record (35 win pace) compared to 4 wins 31 losses without Pierce (9 win pace).

McGrady had Orlando with a 19 win 48 loss record in his 67 games. A win pace of 23 wins. The team was 2 wins 13 losses without him in 15 games (11 win pace over 82 games).

So its not like McGrady had the team playing well when he was there healthy. Or that he was out injured for a large chunk of the season and that was the cause of their misery. As it was with Pierce in 2007.

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I think Pierce got punished in this for not having an outlier great single season peak. He was seen as more consistent year to year over his career. Still he was a borderline call for top 25. As was Jimmy, Westbrook, AI.

[Donoghus]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.  Hill didn't play at all that season and Pat Garrity gave them a whopping two games.

[Who]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.

For sure. But even a roster that is hot garbage that has an MVP level player on it should be winning a lot more than 21 wins 61 losses.

Roster

G: Ty Lue, 37yo Rod Strickland / Shammond Williams
G: Keith Bogans, Goran Giricek
F: Tracy McGrady
F: Juwan Howard, Drew Gooden
C: Andrew DeClerq, Steven Hunter, Zaza Pachulia

Pat Garritty was injured all season. Played only 2 games.

[Donoghus]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.

For sure. But even a roster that is hot garbage that has an MVP level player on it should be winning a lot more than 21 wins 61 losses.

It really depends on the roster to an extent now, doesn't it?  Even an MVP level player can only do so much as one player when the guys around him aren't good.

[Who]

FWIW, that '03-04 Orlando roster was hot garbage.  Their 2nd best player was a 30 year Juwan Howard.

For sure. But even a roster that is hot garbage that has an MVP level player on it should be winning a lot more than 21 wins 61 losses.

It really depends on the roster to an extent now, doesn't it?  Even an MVP level player can only do so much as one player when the guys around him aren't good.

I see that more for an All-Star level player than for an MVP candidate.

It is hard to see someone like LeBron ever having a 21 win team while LeBron is in his prime. Or Jordan. Or Bird. Or Magic.