I Think I Am Aboard The Tank Train Now

[ozgod]

Tank postponed?

[Goldstar88]

Tank postponed?

Winning percent= .444

The tank is still rolling. 

[ozgod]

Tank postponed?

Winning percent= .444

The tank is still rolling. 

What's the cut off to stop the tank engine, 50% 

[Moranis]

Tank postponed?

Winning percent= .444

The tank is still rolling. 

What's the cut off to stop the tank engine, 50% 

if we are 40 games in, around .500 or better, and it looks like Tatum is going to be back, Boston should go for the playoffs.  Otherwise I think they should tank.

[Phantom255x]

We're probably not gonna outtank some of these truly dreadful teams like the Nets, but if they can stay around 5-9 and then pray for the lottery ball luck they could still be in decent shape. Getting a Top-10 pick would still be great, it's a loaded draft and even if it's a trade chip in a bigger package for some established center help, that's good too.

I don't mind a bench with Minott, Hauser, Queta, Hugo. They absolutely need a starting center though, doesn't have to be a superstar big but a quality one would suffice with PP-White-Brown-Tatum. I guess they could acquire a center by trading Simons (salary) + picks this deadline, we'll see. But for our next contention team a lottery pick (ideally Top-10) would really help and open up additional avenues to improve the team.

[Goldstar88]

[Celtics4ever]

I have seen tanks slide that a lot when I was at the Hohenfels training center.  Nothing like seeing 68 tons slide with control to make you feel mortal.

I agree a cost controlled lottery player would really help us down the road.

[keevsnick]

I still think the Celtics end up right around .500, to be honest i haven't seen anything yet that makes me think this team is or is going to tank.

They have an actually very good defense, it has defined weakness like fouling and rebounding but they forced a lot of turnovers, have a lot of rangy defenders and protect the rim well (4th in opponent rim frequency) despite having only one center.

Their offense is very jump shot dependent, but they have the 10th ranked offense despite not hitting threes. If their 3 point % goes from 32.2% to league average 36.6% they'd score two more 3-pointers a game and add 6 points to their scoring average. Now that may level off a bit if Pritchard/Brown stop hitting every mid ranger, but trading fewer middies for more threes still improves the offense overall.

This is a decent team that should be 6-4 but due to shooting luck (and that terrible call in the Jazz game) is only 4-6, but that sort of record stuff tends to even out over time. If they finish the year 10th in offense and 14th in defense they'll win 40+ games.

The one caveat: they've been healthy. Injuries will be the one thing that sinks this to a truly tanking team. But they also have quite a few guys who don't get hurt or play hurt (White, Pritchard, Brown) and quite a few young guys so injuries aren't guaranteed.

[Phantom255x]

The bottom 3 in the East is probably gonna be set in some order already (IND/WAS/BKN). CHA is currently below us and quite frankly I could very well see a few others like the Raptors and Bulls end up there too or around the play-in.

Yeah, Boston may still end up at the play-in worst case scenario. But still in range for lottery

[Moranis]

Brown is -14 in 29 minutes.  Team is +23 in the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.

[keevsnick]

Brown is -14 in 29 minutes.  Team is +23 in the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.

I know you like to bring this up, and I'm not sure what the numbers are for this game, but on the season the plus/minus stuff with Brown is pretty much all shooting luck.

Brown on opponents shoot 39% from three, 51.6% from two.
Brown off opponents shoot 33% from three, 46.7% from two.

So opponents are 6% better from three, 5% better from two, when he's on vs off. In his past three season opponents shooting from either 2 or 3 has not differed with Brown on/off by more than 3% points.

[Who]

The bottom 3 in the East is probably gonna be set in some order already (IND/WAS/BKN). CHA is currently below us and quite frankly I could very well see a few others like the Raptors and Bulls end up there too or around the play-in.

Yeah, Boston may still end up at the play-in worst case scenario. But still in range for lottery

Too early to rule Indiana out. They have been devastated by injuries to open the season. No Nembhard (2gms). No McConnell (0gms). No Mathurin (2gms). No O Toppin (3gms).

They will get better as they get healthy.

[Moranis]

Brown is -14 in 29 minutes.  Team is +23 in the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.

I know you like to bring this up, and I'm not sure what the numbers are for this game, but on the season the plus/minus stuff with Brown is pretty much all shooting luck.

Brown on opponents shoot 39% from three, 51.6% from two.
Brown off opponents shoot 33% from three, 46.7% from two.

So opponents are 6% better from three, 5% better from two, when he's on vs off. In his past three season opponents shooting from either 2 or 3 has not differed with Brown on/off by more than 3% points.

But why is that?  Brown is generally considered a good defender, why would they shoot better against him than against someone like Hauser.

[keevsnick]

Brown is -14 in 29 minutes.  Team is +23 in the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.

I know you like to bring this up, and I'm not sure what the numbers are for this game, but on the season the plus/minus stuff with Brown is pretty much all shooting luck.

Brown on opponents shoot 39% from three, 51.6% from two.
Brown off opponents shoot 33% from three, 46.7% from two.

So opponents are 6% better from three, 5% better from two, when he's on vs off. In his past three season opponents shooting from either 2 or 3 has not differed with Brown on/off by more than 3% points.

But why is that?  Brown is generally considered a good defender, why would they shoot better against him than against someone like Hauser.

They don't shoot better against HIM; they shoot better against EVERYBODY ELSE when he's on the floor. It's just luck, nothing Brown is doing is causing opposing defenses to shoot 6% better from three when he's on the floor.

On shots he directly defends opponents are shooting 41.8% for the year, according to NBA.com. That's actually below those opponents' typical average of 45% on those shots.

[Moranis]

Brown is -14 in 29 minutes.  Team is +23 in the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.

I know you like to bring this up, and I'm not sure what the numbers are for this game, but on the season the plus/minus stuff with Brown is pretty much all shooting luck.

Brown on opponents shoot 39% from three, 51.6% from two.
Brown off opponents shoot 33% from three, 46.7% from two.

So opponents are 6% better from three, 5% better from two, when he's on vs off. In his past three season opponents shooting from either 2 or 3 has not differed with Brown on/off by more than 3% points.

But why is that?  Brown is generally considered a good defender, why would they shoot better against him than against someone like Hauser.

They don't shoot better against HIM; they shoot better against EVERYBODY ELSE when he's on the floor. It's just luck, nothing Brown is doing is causing opposing defenses to shoot 6% better from three when he's on the floor.

On shots he directly defends opponents are shooting 41.8% for the year, according to NBA.com. That's actually below those opponents' typical average of 45% on those shots.

Ah misunderstood, so the problem is everyone else's defense who he starts with, but yet they all have much better +- and differentials, both in this game and all season long.  I mean entering tonight, of the players that played in at least 8 games, only Garza and Simons have a worse per 100 +- and differential than Brown.  It is really weird given how efficient Brown has been shooting the ball (and the fact that Tatum isn't around to inflate the numbers for everyone else when Brown isn't out there).