Author Topic: I miss Danny's drafting...  (Read 820 times)

rocknrollforyoursoul and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #15 on: Today at 01:43:09 PM »

Offline keevsnick

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6634
  • Tommy Points: 643
Danny was a very good drafter. But there isn't enough track record right now to say whether Brad is or isn't a good drafter or for me to be that nostalgic about Danny. Here's Brad's entire draft history:

Juhann Begarin #45 in 2021
Sam Hauser Undrafted in 2021
JD Davidson #53 in 2022
Jordan Walsh #38 in 2023
Baylor Scheierman #30 in 2024
Anton Watson #54 in 2024
Hugo Gonzalex #28 in 2025
Amari Williams #46 in 2025
Max Shulga # 57 in 2025

Picks after around 45 or so are pretty useless, and the two highest picks he's made have less than one year of NBA experience combined. We'll know more after this season. I think Scheierman is going to have a good year. He did also find Sam Hauser as an undrafted guy.

Meanwhile look at where Danny was picking with some of his hits:

Delonte West #24
Tony Allen #25
Al Jefferson #15
Terry Rozier #16
Aaron Nesmith #14
Jared Sullinger #21
Avery Bradley #19
Robert Williams #27
Pitchard #26
Perkins #27
Rondo #21

I mean... most of Dannys success came at points in the draft Brad has never even picked at. Danny had VERY few hits at 28 or later, where Brad has picked. You're talking Moore, Davis, Powe and Gomes picked after #27 and Moore barely counts, he played one season on Boston. The rest of those guys topped out at 9-10 ppg bench players.

Now, I'm not a huge fan of the trade down in 2023 going from 25-->38 or the trade down this year going 32-->46. I think when you trade down that much in a draft you significantly decrease the quality of player you might get. I'd rather have Sensabaugh, Sasser or Strawther right now than Walsh. But I do understand the roster/tax/future picks reasons for doing those trades, one side effect of that approach is Brad doesn't have much of a draft pick history to judge.

« Last Edit: Today at 02:22:39 PM by keevsnick »

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #16 on: Today at 02:31:24 PM »

Online jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13711
  • Tommy Points: 2060
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
I'd argue that Ojeleye at 37 and Nader at 58 are borderline hits, as well. Nader played several years in Phoenix after Boston and was a kind-of a rotation player for them for a couple of years. And Ojeleye was cemented in our rotation and even played regular minutes on our 2020 ECF team. Both guys didn't last long in the league, but they at least showed enough to get real, consistent NBA minutes.

Also, I know that Ainge traded away the pick that became Bane, but it's not like 2020 was a total failure. Nesmith and Pritchard were successful picks and it's not like we were going to carry 3 rookies on the main roster. And we would have had to since they were all 1st round picks.

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #17 on: Today at 02:38:19 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6609
  • Tommy Points: 801
I'd argue that Ojeleye at 37 and Nader at 58 are borderline hits, as well. Nader played several years in Phoenix after Boston and was a kind-of a rotation player for them for a couple of years. And Ojeleye was cemented in our rotation and even played regular minutes on our 2020 ECF team. Both guys didn't last long in the league, but they at least showed enough to get real, consistent NBA minutes.

Also, I know that Ainge traded away the pick that became Bane, but it's not like 2020 was a total failure. Nesmith and Pritchard were successful picks and it's not like we were going to carry 3 rookies on the main roster. And we would have had to since they were all 1st round picks.

Kinda' I don't think people remember that era very well. Just because some of those players played, doesn't mean they were good picks. A big reason they played is because the Celtics had no bench and they had to play. Stevens was forced to get the best out of those guys, and he often did, but then they didn't do much of anything when they left the team.

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #18 on: Today at 02:41:50 PM »

Offline bdm860

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6135
  • Tommy Points: 4624
Again, my point is Danny had a large volume of picks, and it isn?t clear his success rate was great.  Stevens has had a small volume of picks, and it also isn?t clear his success rate has been great (in large part because we really can?t know the results of most of them yet).

What do you consider a good success rate though?

I've always felt drafting (especially later in the draft) should be looked at more like a baseball batting average (where hitting .250 is average,.300 is really good), as opposed to FT% (where ~75% is average, above 80% is good). Not that these should be the actual benchmarks, just directionally speaking.

Count me among those happy with Danny's drafting, though will admit he had many misses. Part of his success was he set himself up for many bites at the apple.

And let's shout out the Tatum and Brown picks. There's probably 29 GMs taking Fultz and Ball before Tatum. And most of the mocks had Jaylen Brown going #8. After that gutsy Tatum draft move, I'm 100% in the "Danny would have been the only GM to draft Durant over Oden" camp had the ping pong balls worked out that way.



I do one day hope to see what Brad can do in the draft, especially if he has a lot of picks in a rebuilding era (not that I'm hoping for a rebuilding era). You'd think a guy that turned a mid-major college program to a major, the guy that helped Isaiah Thomas turn into an MVP candidate, Jordan Clarkson into Player of the Week, and had a lot of career role players who played their best ball or revitalized their careers under him (Bradley, Crowder, Marcus Morris, Evan Turner, Sullinger, etc.), you'd think a guy like that would be able to pull the Kawhi Leonards, Draymond Greens, Pascal Siakims, Jimmy Butlers, Khris Middletons, Malcolm Brogdons out of the draft. Time will tell.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #19 on: Today at 02:54:28 PM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 62519
  • Tommy Points: -25479
  • Bo Knows: Joe Don't Know Diddley
I'd argue that Ojeleye at 37 and Nader at 58 are borderline hits, as well. Nader played several years in Phoenix after Boston and was a kind-of a rotation player for them for a couple of years. And Ojeleye was cemented in our rotation and even played regular minutes on our 2020 ECF team. Both guys didn't last long in the league, but they at least showed enough to get real, consistent NBA minutes.

Also, I know that Ainge traded away the pick that became Bane, but it's not like 2020 was a total failure. Nesmith and Pritchard were successful picks and it's not like we were going to carry 3 rookies on the main roster. And we would have had to since they were all 1st round picks.

Yeah.  I think things would have been more interesting if some of these guys had had the option of 2-way contracts.  Orien Greene, Luke Harangody, Giddens, Walker, Lester Hudson, etc.

I'm not sure if any of those guys could have extended their NBA career, but it would have been fun to seem them in Maine.

And, one guy I'm still not sure why he missed:  JaJuan Johnson

6'10", excellent college player (20 points, 9 rebounds), defensive instincts

And he lasted one season.  36 games.

That's a kid that needed the G-league.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #20 on: Today at 03:10:41 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2598
  • Tommy Points: 266
I'd argue that Ojeleye at 37 and Nader at 58 are borderline hits, as well. Nader played several years in Phoenix after Boston and was a kind-of a rotation player for them for a couple of years. And Ojeleye was cemented in our rotation and even played regular minutes on our 2020 ECF team. Both guys didn't last long in the league, but they at least showed enough to get real, consistent NBA minutes.

Also, I know that Ainge traded away the pick that became Bane, but it's not like 2020 was a total failure. Nesmith and Pritchard were successful picks and it's not like we were going to carry 3 rookies on the main roster. And we would have had to since they were all 1st round picks.

Yeah.  I think things would have been more interesting if some of these guys had had the option of 2-way contracts.  Orien Greene, Luke Harangody, Giddens, Walker, Lester Hudson, etc.

I'm not sure if any of those guys could have extended their NBA career, but it would have been fun to seem them in Maine.

And, one guy I'm still not sure why he missed:  JaJuan Johnson

6'10", excellent college player (20 points, 9 rebounds), defensive instincts

And he lasted one season.  36 games.

That's a kid that needed the G-league.

And with Jimmy Butler picked just a few spots later :(

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #21 on: Today at 03:12:20 PM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 62519
  • Tommy Points: -25479
  • Bo Knows: Joe Don't Know Diddley
I'd argue that Ojeleye at 37 and Nader at 58 are borderline hits, as well. Nader played several years in Phoenix after Boston and was a kind-of a rotation player for them for a couple of years. And Ojeleye was cemented in our rotation and even played regular minutes on our 2020 ECF team. Both guys didn't last long in the league, but they at least showed enough to get real, consistent NBA minutes.

Also, I know that Ainge traded away the pick that became Bane, but it's not like 2020 was a total failure. Nesmith and Pritchard were successful picks and it's not like we were going to carry 3 rookies on the main roster. And we would have had to since they were all 1st round picks.

Yeah.  I think things would have been more interesting if some of these guys had had the option of 2-way contracts.  Orien Greene, Luke Harangody, Giddens, Walker, Lester Hudson, etc.

I'm not sure if any of those guys could have extended their NBA career, but it would have been fun to seem them in Maine.

And, one guy I'm still not sure why he missed:  JaJuan Johnson

6'10", excellent college player (20 points, 9 rebounds), defensive instincts

And he lasted one season.  36 games.

That's a kid that needed the G-league.

And with Jimmy Butler picked just a few spots later :(

That's apparently the front office's biggest regret.  It was down to JJJ and Butler, and they took the wrong guy.  They loved Butler.

Quote
"The one that we talk about the most internally is Jimmy Butler and JaJuan Johnson," Zarren said. ?Every team has tons of these stories. We had it narrowed down to those two guys and picked the wrong one."

Danny said the same thing in a separate interview.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #22 on: Today at 03:49:05 PM »

Offline Goldstar88

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13365
  • Tommy Points: 1706
He had some misses, but he consistently landed talent after pick #20.

* Kendrick Perkins
* Tony Allen
* Delonte West
* Rajon Rondo
* Ryan Gomes
* Leon Powe
* Glen Davis
* Timelord
* Grant Williams
* E'Twaun Moore
* Jared Sullinger

Several other second rounders he selected enjoyed a cup of coffee in the league without the benefit of two-way contracts.

Just looking at 2023 and 2024, I think I'd like our team more if Danny had been in charge.

2023 Celtics:  Start at #25, end up at #38, pick Jordan Walsh and acquire second rounders in the future
2023 Jazz:  Start at #28, pick Brice Sensabaugh (10.9 points, 42.2% 3PT%, 59.0 eFG%)

2024 Celtics: Start at #30, pick Baylor Scheierman
2024 Jazz: Start at #32, pick Kyle Filipowksi (9.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 35.0% 3PT%)

This isn't a criticism of Brad overall.  He's been tremendous, and I have no doubt that he gave input into some of Danny's drafts.  But, based upon track record alone, I'm feeling a bit of nostalgia for Danny.

Can add Pritchard to that list. Danny took him at #26. Brad hasn?t been good at drafting. Not one pick has worked out yet.
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #23 on: Today at 04:51:24 PM »

Offline greg683x

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4198
  • Tommy Points: 593
Not making excuses for Danny but I think there were times where he had acquired so many picks with the hopes of making a blockbuster trade and it just never materialized.  So what he was left with was a bunch of first round and 2nd rd picks that he had to make with only so many roster spots.  Weren?t just about all his picks in 2016 draft and stash picks?  Except Jaylen of course. 

There may have been times Danny was limited to taking international players bc of roster spots and availability of two way contracts.  I could be absolutely wrong but I just remember years waiting for trade that never happened and remember thinking what the hell is he going to do with all these picks there?s not enough room for them
Greg

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #24 on: Today at 05:11:55 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8909
  • Tommy Points: 579
Need we discuss the disaster that was the 2015 and 2016 drafts after our first picks?  Has the 7-year stretch of Demetrius Jackson come off the books yet?  Fred VanVleet was just sitting there as we burned through second-rounder after second-rounder in 2016, and the only reason those two drafts weren?t even worse is because Pat Riley refused to take a gazillion picks for Justise Winslow, so we didn?t trade the picks that ultimately became Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown.

And Danny didn?t look so squeaky in 2019 and 2020 either.
In 2019 and 2020 Danny got Grant Williams, Aaron Nesmith and Pritchard. Langford was a bust in the lottery which is bad, but come on that's a good haul!
And in 2020 he made one of the biggest screwups passing on Bane twice.  That should have been an easy pick. 

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #25 on: Today at 05:15:39 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8668
  • Tommy Points: 848
Need we discuss the disaster that was the 2015 and 2016 drafts after our first picks?  Has the 7-year stretch of Demetrius Jackson come off the books yet?  Fred VanVleet was just sitting there as we burned through second-rounder after second-rounder in 2016, and the only reason those two drafts weren?t even worse is because Pat Riley refused to take a gazillion picks for Justise Winslow, so we didn?t trade the picks that ultimately became Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown.

And Danny didn?t look so squeaky in 2019 and 2020 either.
In 2019 and 2020 Danny got Grant Williams, Aaron Nesmith and Pritchard. Langford was a bust in the lottery which is bad, but come on that's a good haul!
And in 2020 he made one of the biggest screwups passing on Bane twice.  That should have been an easy pick.
Why?

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #26 on: Today at 05:15:55 PM »

Offline liam

  • NCE
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 45914
  • Tommy Points: 3340
Need we discuss the disaster that was the 2015 and 2016 drafts after our first picks?  Has the 7-year stretch of Demetrius Jackson come off the books yet?  Fred VanVleet was just sitting there as we burned through second-rounder after second-rounder in 2016, and the only reason those two drafts weren?t even worse is because Pat Riley refused to take a gazillion picks for Justise Winslow, so we didn?t trade the picks that ultimately became Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown.

And Danny didn?t look so squeaky in 2019 and 2020 either.
In 2019 and 2020 Danny got Grant Williams, Aaron Nesmith and Pritchard. Langford was a bust in the lottery which is bad, but come on that's a good haul!
And in 2020 he made one of the biggest screwups passing on Bane twice.  That should have been an easy pick.


BBBAAANNNEEEEE!!!!!

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #27 on: Today at 05:23:42 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8909
  • Tommy Points: 579
Danny was a very good drafter. But there isn't enough track record right now to say whether Brad is or isn't a good drafter or for me to be that nostalgic about Danny. Here's Brad's entire draft history:

Juhann Begarin #45 in 2021
Sam Hauser Undrafted in 2021
JD Davidson #53 in 2022
Jordan Walsh #38 in 2023
Baylor Scheierman #30 in 2024
Anton Watson #54 in 2024
Hugo Gonzalex #28 in 2025
Amari Williams #46 in 2025
Max Shulga # 57 in 2025

Picks after around 45 or so are pretty useless, and the two highest picks he's made have less than one year of NBA experience combined. We'll know more after this season. I think Scheierman is going to have a good year. He did also find Sam Hauser as an undrafted guy.

Meanwhile look at where Danny was picking with some of his hits:

Delonte West #24
Tony Allen #25
Al Jefferson #15
Terry Rozier #16
Aaron Nesmith #14
Jared Sullinger #21
Avery Bradley #19
Robert Williams #27
Pitchard #26
Perkins #27
Rondo #21

I mean... most of Dannys success came at points in the draft Brad has never even picked at. Danny had VERY few hits at 28 or later, where Brad has picked. You're talking Moore, Davis, Powe and Gomes picked after #27 and Moore barely counts, he played one season on Boston. The rest of those guys topped out at 9-10 ppg bench players.

Now, I'm not a huge fan of the trade down in 2023 going from 25-->38 or the trade down this year going 32-->46. I think when you trade down that much in a draft you significantly decrease the quality of player you might get. I'd rather have Sensabaugh, Sasser or Strawther right now than Walsh. But I do understand the roster/tax/future picks reasons for doing those trades, one side effect of that approach is Brad doesn't have much of a draft pick history to judge.
Hauser wasn't drafted so he shouldn't be listed.  Brad chose Begarin over Hauser.
Dropping down in the 2nd round is idiotic.  Passing on a center who shoots 3s is idiotic.  Drafting someone in the 1st round whose top skills are apparently hard worker and high energy is idiotic.   

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #28 on: Today at 05:27:43 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8909
  • Tommy Points: 579
Need we discuss the disaster that was the 2015 and 2016 drafts after our first picks?  Has the 7-year stretch of Demetrius Jackson come off the books yet?  Fred VanVleet was just sitting there as we burned through second-rounder after second-rounder in 2016, and the only reason those two drafts weren?t even worse is because Pat Riley refused to take a gazillion picks for Justise Winslow, so we didn?t trade the picks that ultimately became Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown.

And Danny didn?t look so squeaky in 2019 and 2020 either.
In 2019 and 2020 Danny got Grant Williams, Aaron Nesmith and Pritchard. Langford was a bust in the lottery which is bad, but come on that's a good haul!
And in 2020 he made one of the biggest screwups passing on Bane twice.  That should have been an easy pick.


BBBAAANNNEEEEE!!!!!
[dang] straight!!!!!!   I may just have to start watching the Magic.  They are making some good moves.  I like their two picks Jase Richardson and Noah Penda. 

Re: I miss Danny's drafting...
« Reply #29 on: Today at 06:09:50 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

  • NCE
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2746
  • Tommy Points: 311
One of the problems, like in '23, Brad traded down because of salary constraints.

I hate this not even attempting to develop a young player, look what Pritchard has become.

One of Brad's problems, if you view it that way, is the constant trading down. Trying to stockpile 2nd rounders for future trades, I guess.

There were some pretty good players late in the '23 & '24 draft who could help us now. I don't think it's fair to give up on Scheierman, but everybody in the world and most on this board wanted Filipowski. Same last night, multiple bigs available, no doubt at least a few who could've helped us, and Brad trades down for future 2nds, most of which will be useless, and drafts a guy who might have been the 10th best big in the SEC last year. Because he's a good passer? Ignoring the teams' massive hole in rebounding, defense, etc. I doubt he ever sees meaningful minutes in green. And with all the 19/20 yr olds with untapped potential, he picks a guy 23.5 yrs old who was maybe the 5th best player on his own team, if that, instead of, say the SEC player of the year center who carried his team to the final 4. 

Unlike many here, I liked the pick of Gonzalez. He's a good athlete, only 19, and just a year ago, was considered a potential top 5 pick. IMO, worth a gamble at 28. But the draft did us a huge favor, giving us an early 2nd, some really good big prospects available, and Brad said, nah, I'll take this jag project who'll never play for us instead.

Brad's been a great GM, but he needs to let someone else run his drafts.