Nothing is quite as rosy as the shade of the glasses worn by fans as they dabble in the trade machine with their team. Fans convincing themselves that their 10th man could be flipped for an all-star is part of the fun of watching your team.
But many Celtic fans, especially those of us who have been following the team for decades, have the opposite problem. After a loss, we often take the ?glass-half-empty? approach. We convince ourselves that we will never win another championship with this ownership group, or front office, or coach, or core, or bench, or stars, or whatever. As Celtic fans try to create off-season plans, our best players are not worth the bench players on other teams.
It always throws me for a loop when I see trade ideas or rumors that are drastically different than how I value a player. It makes me think ?Maybe I?m the crazy one.?
In an effort to prove my sanity, I obsessively researched trades from the recent era of the NBA. I was searching for comparable players to some of the Celtic players that may be moved this off-season, trying to find some kind of algorithm, or at least vibe, for the value of the players on the Celtic roster. Here is the fruit of that labor.
Jayson Tatum
Tatum is not being traded for so many reasons. I can?t imagine the backlash by the players, the league, and the media if we traded our star right after he got injured. In the interest of this thought experiment, here are only a few examples of players in Tatum?s stratosphere that would be comparable to his value.
- Luka Doncic (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 1st round pick) - People hated this trade when it happened. I still kinda? like it. The Mavs received a bonafide two-way All-star Center, a productive prospect on a good contract, and a juicy future 1st round pick
- Anthony Davis (Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, DeAndre Hunter (4th pick), 3 other 1st round picks - Three productive young prospects and 4 1st round picks
- Paul George (Gallinari, Shai, and 7 1st round picks) - 1 high-end starter, 1 productive young prospect, and 7 1sts
- Durant (Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Jae Crowder, four first-round draft picks and a pick swap) - 2 product young prospects/high-end starters, 1 role player, 4 firsts, and a swap)
Jaylen Brown
Brown is a bit more tricky. Generally from what I?ve seen, Brown would be worth more than what most Celtic fans realize. However, we have to contextualize as well. If a team were desperate to acquire the ?missing piece? second banana, we could get a huge haul. If it was a more normal trade, it would still be significant, but not as much.
- Kyrie Irving to the Mavs - Dinwiddie, DFS, 1 1st, and 2 2nds - The difference here is that Irving was a distressed asset at the time. No one really wanted to trade for him. The Nets got two solid starters in return, along with draft picks. I?d also argue that Brown being signed to a long-term contract gives him more value than Irving had, because Irving was on a short-term deal.
- Deron Williams - Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, and 2 1sts - This one takes us back a bit, but the Nets traded a young high-level exciting prospect, a starting point guard, and 2 1sts.
- Donovan Mitchell - Agbaji, Markennan, Sexton, and 5 1sts - Mitchell was a bit younger than Brown, but Brown isn?t on a short-term contract like Mitchell was. The Jazz got two productive young prospects, one prospect, and a boat-load of draft picks.
- DeRozan to Bulls - Aminu, Young, 1 1st, 2 2nds - Brown is already much more decorated than DeRozan was at the same point in their careers, but the Bulls received a solid bench player and draft assets. DeRozan was also on an expiring, which is why the value is considerably lower.
- DeMar DeRozan to Kings - Duarte, Barnes, 1 1st, 2 2nds - The Kings traded a solid starter, a prospect, and draft compensation. DeRozan was also 5 years older when this trade was made.
- Bradley Beal - Paul, Shamet, 4 1sts, 5 2nds - The Suns traded a solid starter, a productive young prospect, and a bunch of draft picks for Beal.
- Aaron Gordon - Harris, Hampton, 1st - Gordon was on an expiring contract but the Magic received a solid starter, a young prospect, and a 1st for Gordon.
- Mikal Bridges - Bogdonavic, Milton, 6 1sts, 1 2nd - I?d argue this was largely draft compensation. Bogdon was salary filler and Milton is a fringe NBA player
- OG Anunoby - Barrett, Quickly, 1 2nd - 2 productive young prospects and a 2nd. Knicks also received a backup big as part of the trade
- Pascal Siakim - Brown, Nwora, Lewis Jr., and 3 1sts - One solid role player, one prospect, and a draft haul. Siakim was also on an expiring at the time.
Overall, the biggest haul on this list was Donovan Mitchell, but Beal, Siakim, and Bridges also represent decent trade hauls. With Brown?s production, contract, and age, I think a trade package in that realm is realistic. Something in the realm of 2 productive young prospects and multiple draft picks and/or a high level draft pick seems realistic.
Some examples:
- Spurs - Vassell, Castle, and the 2nd overall pick (with salary filler going to the Nets)
- Rockets - Green, Smith, Sheppard, 10th pick
- Pistons - Thompson, Ivey (or Duren), 3 future 1sts
- Hawks - Two of Johnson-Okongwu-Daniels-Risacher, the 13th overall pick, and a future conditional 1st
- Hornets - Miller, Williams, 4th pick
- Jazz - Markkenan, Kessler, 5th pick
- Pelicans - Murphy, Jones, 7th pick
- Blazers - Ayton, Scoot, the 11th pick, and multiple future 1sts
- Blazers - Simons, Scoot, Clingan and the 11th pick
- Grizzlies - Bane, Edey, Pippen Jr., and multiple future 1sts
Jrue Holliday
Perhaps the most difficult person on this list to get a value for. If you look at All-defensive teams, there just aren?t many high-level defensive guards in their 30s, particularly ones that can also shoot and run the offense as needed. I did find a couple possible examples, and one that is my favorite for this.
- OG and Bridges - See trade package above. Problem here is that they were much younger than Holliday.
- Smart - Zinger, 2 1sts - Again, Smart was much younger, but I think most could see that Holliday?s numbers are better. Still, the Celtics got a starting center who was a distressed asset and picks
- Caruso - Giddey - Caruso is younger, but Holliday does much more for your team overall. Still, the Bulls got a really high level productive prospect for him.
- Holliday - Williams, Brogdon, 2 1sts - Today?s version is Holliday two years older, but the Celtics traded a productive prospect, the reigning 6moty, and 2 1sts to get him.
- Shane Battier - Thabeet, Carroll, 1st round pick - Battier was 32 when he was traded, but much less productive of a player. Still, he was a great defender and glue guy, which is what Holliday projects to be over the next few years. They traded two prospects (not productive) and a 1st round pick
- Andre Iguodala - Biedrins, Jefferson, Rush, 2 1st rounders, 3 2nd rounders - This trade boiled down to salary filler and picks. Iguodala signed a long-term deal as part of this trade, but he was never as productive as Jrue was this season for the Celtics. He was 30.
- Jason Kidd - Ager, Diop, Harris, Hassel, Van Horn, 2 1st round picks - Kidd was 35 when this trade was made. The Mavs traded a young productive prospect (Harris), and 2 1sts with salary filler to make this trade happen.
My favorite comp trade package for Holliday is Kidd. Holliday was all-defense 6 of 8 previous seasons. Teams know they aren?t getting an all-star, just like the Mavs knew Kidd wasn?t an all-star anymore. But they also know they are getting a championship-caliber core piece.
Some examples:
- Lakers - Hachimura, Knecht, and 1 future 1st
- Mavs - Washington, Christie, and 1 future 1st
- Kings - Ellis, 1 future 1st, with DeRozan to a third team
- Pistons - Harris, Ivey, 1 future 1st
- Pistons - Harris, Thompson, 1 future 1st
Derrick White
Many of the best comps I could find for Holliday also apply to White. Some of the ?lesser? player comps for Brown also apply to White.
- Jrue Holliday - Williams, Brogdon, 2 1sts - Similar ages. The best example of White?s value is what the Celtics paid for Holliday two years ago. The Celtics traded a productive prospect, the reigning 6moty, and 2 1sts to get him.
- DeRozan to Bulls - Aminu, Young, 1 1st, 2 2nds - The Bulls received a solid bench player and draft assets. DeRozan was also on an expiring, which is why the value is considerably lower.
- DeMar DeRozan to Kings - Duarte, Barnes, 1 1st, 2 2nds - The Kings traded a solid starter, a prospect, and draft compensation. DeRozan was several years older when this trade was made.
- Aaron Gordon - Harris, Hampton, 1st - Gordon was on an expiring contract but the Magic received a solid starter, a young prospect, and a 1st for Gordon.
- Mikal Bridges - Bogdonavic, Milton, 6 1sts, 1 2nd - I?d argue this was largely draft compensation. Bogdon was salary filler and Milton is a fringe NBA player
- OG Anunoby - Barrett, Quickly, 1 2nd - 2 productive young prospects and a 2nd. Knicks also received a backup big as part of the trade
I?d say you could probably get 1 additional asset or better asset compared to what you could get for Holliday at this point due to age.
Some examples:
- Lakers - Hachimura, Knecht, and 2 future 1st
- Lakers - Reeves, Knecht, and 1 future 1st
- Mavs - Washington, Christie (or Lively), and a future 1st
- Kings - Murray, Ellis, future 1st
- Pistons - Harris, Thompson
Kristaps Porzingis
These are the best bigs traded that compare to Porzingis. Each of these players had significant injury concerns at the time of the trade, were similar age, and were on short-term contracts. However, they were all still highly effective when healthy.
- Brooke Lopez - Lakers traded Mozgov, Russell (first round pick Kuzma also went to Lakers) - Lakers also received a late 1st round draft pick, but traded a young productive prospect and role player
- Jermaine Oneil - Ford, 1st round pick (Hibbert), Nesterovic - Oneil had multiple similar injury-prone seasons at that point, and netted a productive prospect, 1st round draft pick, and a role player
- Nene - McGee, Turiaf - Nene was injury-prone at this point, but the Nuggets received a productive prospect and role
- Zinger - Gallinari, Muscala, Jones - the original Zinger trade had the Wizards getting two vets that were essentially expiring contracts and a role player
This section surprised me the most. Based on what I?m seeing here, it might be reasonable to hope for something around an unproductive prospect or a role player in return.
Some examples:
- Nets - 26th overall pick
- Pistons - Sasser, with Harris going to the Nets
- Heat - Jovic or Jaquez Jr., with Rozier going to the Nets
- Spurs - Sochan with Nets taking Barnes
- Bulls - Ball (or Dosunmu) with Collins going to the Nets
- Wizards - Carrington with Middleton going to the Nets
- Pelicans - Hawkins, with McCullom going to the Nets
Sam Hauser
Overall, shooters like Hauser are not just dumped. They have value. Normally worth expiring contracts and a couple second round picks or fringe prospects.
- Luke Kennard to the Grizzlies - Danny Green (expiring) and 3 seconds
- Doug McDermott - Traded multiple times in larger and small deals. Guy has moved around a lot, but similar value to Kennard.
- Landry Shamet - Same, but normally part of a larger trade.
Some examples:
- Magic - Gary Harris and a 2nd round pick - Has a club option we could decline and save the cap space.
- Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Kings, Pelicans Miami - all have TE can could absorb his salary and send back 2 second rounders