Shams: "League is Bracing for Some Level of Change to Celtics Roster"

[Vermont Green]

I think the issue is more about the draft and other impacts of being a repeater 2nd apron violator.  I honestly don't it would be an issue if it was just money.  They are over the threshold this season but I think that this season (2024-25) does not count towards the repeater clock.  It is a phase in or something (please clarify if this is not correct).

Trading Hauser does not get us under the 2nd apron for next season in any case.  Horford and Kornet are FAs.  Kornet may well get offered money we won't match.  Horford probably comes back on year to year contracts.  We are probably still over the 2nd apron in 2025-26 so 2026-27 becomes the key season to be a repeater or not.  To get under for 2026-27, Holiday or Porzingis or White or Brown have to be traded with far less salary coming back.  I do not believe that there are any ways around this reality.

This is why I think there is a chance that Holiday is traded this off season for an expiring contract (Holiday has 2 more years and a player option).  We won't have salary relief for 2025-26 but will for 2026-27.  I don't think there will be a team that can just absorb a contract like Holiday's.

[otherdave]

Celtic lux tax history

2018-2019   pd lux tax
2019-2020   no tax
2020-2021   no tax
2021-2022   no tax
2022-2023   pd lux tax
2023-2024   pd lux tax, above 2nd apron
2024-2025   pd lux tax, above 2nd apron
2025-2026    if over lux tax threshold, C's will pay repeater enhanced lux tax

plus at some point our draft pick gets pushed and frozen at 30th until we get below 2nd apron

[A Future of Stevens]

I love the guy, but if we found a way to move Holiday for minimal salary back would that clean things up?

Holiday because of his age is the obvious one to go. A core of Tatum, Brown, White and the Zinger should keep us in the mix for the next half decade. Add in the godsend of Pritchards contract, hopefully a contributing Rookie or two, vet ring chasers and we are fine.

[jambr380]

Brad might have gotten a little too trigger happy with extensions last year. Jrue would have been expiring right now, which might have been the best possible scenario for us moving forward. Hopefully we don?t have to attach picks to get rid of him.

We can also look to move Hauser so that we can take back a contract and sign Al/Luke. Al obviously being the priority here

[Phantom255x]

I'm seeing posts online where even if we trade say, 1 of Jrue/KP, and Hauser, we're still not saving that much anyways because we would have to fill their spots on the roster with minimum salaries which would still factor into the luxury tax. Like sure, it would drop from 500M but only to about 400-450 ish. If that's the case, what's the point?

Unless they want to trade Jaylen or BOTH of KP/Jrue but even then you'd have to take back a decent amount of salary since not many teams just have a ton of cap space available.

Like some of the Jaylen trades involve Giannis or a few players from DET (like Duren, Harris, etc.) but some of those guys are also making a lot which would in theory offset it. It's not like you're just dumping these guys and saving their entire salary, you'd have to take back a decent amount since most teams are also having limited cap space or are over.

It's why I'm still hoping they just trade Hauser to save approximately 50M, and pay the 450M. Hauser's 10M accounts for 80M in luxury tax savings if dealt, though they'd still have to add 25-30M with whoever takes Hauser's spot on the roster even if a minimum guy. Hence, the math of about 50M in savings from trading Hauser alone.

[keevsnick]

I'm seeing posts online where even if we trade say, 1 of Jrue/KP, and Hauser, we're still not saving that much anyways because we would have to fill their spots on the roster with minimum salaries which would still factor into the luxury tax. Like sure, it would drop from 500M but only to about 400-450 ish. If that's the case, what's the point?

Unless they want to trade Jaylen or BOTH of KP/Jrue but even then you'd have to take back a decent amount of salary since not many teams just have a ton of cap space available.

Like some of the Jaylen trades involve Giannis or a few players from DET (like Duren, Harris, etc.) but some of those guys are also making a lot which would in theory offset it. It's not like you're just dumping these guys and saving their entire salary, you'd have to take back a decent amount since most teams are also having limited cap space or are over.

It's why I'm still hoping they just trade Hauser to save approximately 50M, and pay the 450M. Hauser's 10M accounts for 80M in luxury tax savings if dealt, though they'd still have to add 25-30M with whoever takes Hauser's spot on the roster even if a minimum guy. Hence, the math of about 50M in savings from trading Hauser alone.

If you are seeing posts to that effect they are not accurate. The Hauser number isn't far off, trading Hauser who make 10 million and replacing him with a minimum making 2 million would save something approximating 70 million in Salary+tax (the exact number will depend on exactly how they fill out their roster)

But if they were able to get off Jrue Holidays contract completely without taking any money back and replace him with a minimum contract they would go from being what will likely be about 40-45 million or so over the tax to about 10-15 million. That would save them well OVER 200 MILLION in tax + salary just in 25-26 alone.

Now tbf they are unlikely to completely get off Jrues Salary without taking some large contracts back, very few teams can just take him. But that being the case they may decide to start this off seaosn so that that they can take back expiring and give themselves flexibility to get under the 2nd apron in the coming years.

Money aside, if the C's are in the 2nd apron next year (25-26) then their draft pick gets frozen and sent to the back of the first round (#30) in 2033. The only way to get it "unbanished" is to be out of the 2nd apron for the next three seasons (26-27, 27-28, 28-29). The only way to get out of the 2nd apron is to get off one of the big 5 contracts. The reaosn holiday is the most likely to go is age and positional overlap, but KP is certainly a possibility as well.

[jambr380]

If a team wants Jrue and is able to piece together multiple contracts that equal the $26M needed to get to the 125% rule, then it maybe easier to then dump off those contracts to other teams using TPEs and cap space.

I?d assume a team that wants Jrue and is piecing together contracts to get him would be willing to give up picks to get him. Thing is, if we are looking for places to send those contracts, we will likely need to use those picks in order to do so. It might just be a wash in the end.

[byennie]

Brown, Jrue
For
Giannis, Portis (expiring), Connaughton (expiring)

Boston dumps salaries after, including Hauser.
Milwaukee ships Jrue to a contender.

They rebuild around Brown, we get Tatum / Giannis / White core?

I probably need to look at math but that?s up to $40M/year slashed?

[RodyTur10]

Brown, Jrue
For
Giannis, Portis (expiring), Connaughton (expiring)

Boston dumps salaries after, including Hauser.
Milwaukee ships Jrue to a contender.

They rebuild around Brown, we get Tatum / Giannis / White core?

I probably need to look at math but that?s up to $40M/year slashed?

The Celtics can't aggregate salaries to obtain a higher salary (Giannis), so it's impossible to acquire Giannis. Which I don't mind, since he's certainly not on my "list of favorite non-Celtic players". His playing style is fully dependent on overpowering opponents. I expect him to decline rapidly.

If we aim high for somewhat realistic (I excluded Doncic, Edwards, SGA, Brunson, Fox and Ingram f.e.) options I come to this list (in bold guys I'd like to see in a Celtics jersey):

Booker
Towns
J. Murray
George
Leonard
Mitchell
Markkanen
Siakam
Haliburton
Sabonis
Williamson
Morant
Garland
F. Wagner
S. Barnes
Mobley
Cunningham
Maxey
LaMelo Ball
Adebayo
Bane
Suggs
Gobert
Sengun

[SparzWizard]

Brown, Jrue
For
Giannis, Portis (expiring), Connaughton (expiring)

Boston dumps salaries after, including Hauser.
Milwaukee ships Jrue to a contender.

They rebuild around Brown, we get Tatum / Giannis / White core?

I probably need to look at math but that?s up to $40M/year slashed?

That'll be a multiple-chip roster.

[jambr380]

Brown, Jrue
For
Giannis, Portis (expiring), Connaughton (expiring)

Boston dumps salaries after, including Hauser.
Milwaukee ships Jrue to a contender.

They rebuild around Brown, we get Tatum / Giannis / White core?

I probably need to look at math but that?s up to $40M/year slashed?

The Celtics can't aggregate salaries to obtain a higher salary (Giannis), so it's impossible to acquire Giannis. Which I don't mind, since he's certainly not on my "list of favorite non-Celtic players". His playing style is fully dependent on overpowering opponents. I expect him to decline rapidly.

They can aggregate salaries if the end result of the trade gets them below the 2nd apron. So they could trade Jaylen and Jrue for Giannis in a multi-team trade, but they'd still need to find a landing spot for Jrue without bringing back more than a few million dollars on the books for next year.

[keevsnick]

Brown, Jrue
For
Giannis, Portis (expiring), Connaughton (expiring)

Boston dumps salaries after, including Hauser.
Milwaukee ships Jrue to a contender.

They rebuild around Brown, we get Tatum / Giannis / White core?

I probably need to look at math but that?s up to $40M/year slashed?

The Celtics can't aggregate salaries to obtain a higher salary (Giannis), so it's impossible to acquire Giannis. Which I don't mind, since he's certainly not on my "list of favorite non-Celtic players". His playing style is fully dependent on overpowering opponents. I expect him to decline rapidly.

They can aggregate salaries if the end result of the trade gets them below the 2nd apron. So they could trade Jaylen and Jrue for Giannis in a multi-team trade, but they'd still need to find a landing spot for Jrue without bringing back more than a few million dollars on the books for next year.

And that's nearly impossible. Only two teams are projected to have anywhere near the cap space to absorb Jrue Holiday: Brk who has max room and Detroit who may have 25 million. I doubt BRK wans an aging Holiday given where they are in their rebuild. So Detroit might be the only option.

[Roy H.]

BOS trades:  Brown, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheierman, Tilman

BOS receives:  Giannis

A third team might be needed to take on some of the outgoing salary.  We have no bench, but we're a below second apron team.

KP
Giannis
Tatum
Brown
Jrue

[SparzWizard]

BOS trades:  Brown, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheierman, Tilman

BOS receives:  Giannis

A third team might be needed to take on some of the outgoing salary.  We have no bench, but we're a below second apron team.

KP
Giannis
Tatum
Brown
Jrue

But Brown is part of the outgoing package 

Sign some ring-chasing vets and we are solid

[Neurotic Guy]

BOS trades:  Brown, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheierman, Tilman

BOS receives:  Giannis

A third team might be needed to take on some of the outgoing salary.  We have no bench, but we're a below second apron team.

KP
Giannis
Tatum
Brown
Jrue

The resulting starting 5 is White not Brown.

Healthy, that?s a ridiculous starting 5 with not much bench left.

Unfortunately the Bucks would have to agree to trade a top 5 guy for a 15-20 guy.  PP is a nice addition but the Bucks aren?t going anywhere with that team.  Better deal for Celtics. I think the Bucks can get a more promising youthful haul for Giannis. I don?t see how Milwaukee turns that after trade team into a contender.