Celtics (34-10) at Heat (24-20) Game #45 1/25/24

[Kernewek]

Would have preferred to see this sort of performance in Game 7 last year but it’s great to see an absurdly good night compared to an absurdly bad one.

[celticinorlando]

Just a butt kicking. The more I watch Miami, the less I am worried about them. Slow, unathletic. Can't score and can't defend.

[Vermont Green]

This game defied my extra possessions stats theory.  The Celtics gave up more ORebs (11 to 6) and more turnovers (11-5) which resulted in 11 more possessions for the Heat.  They ended up getting 14 more shots (94 to 80 FGA).  We had a few more FTA that accounted for the other 3 additional FGA by MIA.  But we hit 9 more shots, including 6 more 3s, and 9 more FTs.  I guess when you shoot that well, you can overcome giving up 11 extra possessions.

We average about 43 3PA per game (most in the league) and took 40 in this game.  I like the trend.  More than 40 seems like too many.  We are now 15-9 on the road, OKC is best at 14-8.  We have been playing much better on the road the last month or so.  Like that trend too.

[Neurotic Guy]

This game defied my extra possessions stats theory.  The Celtics gave up more ORebs (11 to 6) and more turnovers (11-5) which resulted in 11 more possessions for the Heat.  They ended up getting 14 more shots (94 to 80 FGA).  We had a few more FTA that accounted for the other 3 additional FGA by MIA.  But we hit 9 more shots, including 6 more 3s, and 9 more FTs.  I guess when you shoot that well, you can overcome giving up 11 extra possessions.

We average about 43 3PA per game (most in the league) and took 40 in this game.  I like the trend.  More than 40 seems like too many.  We are now 15-9 on the road, OKC is best at 14-8.  We have been playing much better on the road the last month or so.  Like that trend too.

Is there any correlation to # of 3's attempted and either losses or close finishes (or giving up double-digit leads)?  It may not play out statistically especially since lots of 3's go up in garbage time in blowouts - and when 3's are falling more get attempted.  Maybe there is a sweet spot +/- # of threes where it becomes statistically detrimental.

[Redz]

https://twitter.com/sports_mediocre/status/1750713034975350990

NBA stat of the day #369:

Heading into today there were 124,646 team games with shooting data in NBA history

1 team had ever shot 80% TS

The Celtics just became the 2nd 🤯

https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1750713911106494700

The Celtics shooting tonight:

— 51-80 FG (63.7%)
— 22-40 3P (55%)
— 19-20 FT (95%)

2nd-most efficient game by a team in NBA history, with an 80.5 TS%

We still shoot too many threes, but when they're going in at this clip it's pretty historical. Literally only one other team has been this efficient in a game.... in NBA history.

They also had 36 assists, many of which were on those threes. They moved the ball pretty well tonight and had the Heat in rotation a lot. Not to mention their perimeter defense has really dropped off. I suspect when advanced logs are available we will see a lot of those 3s were open.

They had so many open looks and dunks/uncontested layups.  Obviously you still have to make the wide open 3’s but they’re so much easier to make when the defense just can’t keep up with your ball movement.  Miami didn’t know what hit them. 

[PAOBoston]

Always great when you can utterly humiliate the Heat. Thoroughly enjoyed that beat down.

[Phantom255x]

I will concede that Miami was on the 2nd of a back to back so you have to factor that in a little. Remember our recent Bucks matchup?

That said… Porzingis is a difference maker in this matchup. We also have so many ways to score and it’s hard for Miami to defend. Butler can’t guard everyone.

[mef730]

Just a butt kicking. The more I watch Miami, the less I am worried about them. Slow, unathletic. Can't score and can't defend.

No doubt that our team is better and Miami is worse than last year. Still, I won't feel good until they are in the rear-view mirror in the playoffs.

Mike

[Surferdad]

Love this guy! Focus on defense only in his videos.
https://youtu.be/9yckPFfHOPY?si=GDNeNyMrWRP-OI61

[Surferdad]

I will concede that Miami was on the 2nd of a back to back so you have to factor that in a little. Remember our recent Bucks matchup?

That said… Porzingis is a difference maker in this matchup. We also have so many ways to score and it’s hard for Miami to defend. Butler can’t guard everyone.

What about Kornet? During the game, Kevin Harlan proclaimed “You cannot stop him!”

[Phantom255x]

I will concede that Miami was on the 2nd of a back to back so you have to factor that in a little. Remember our recent Bucks matchup?

That said… Porzingis is a difference maker in this matchup. We also have so many ways to score and it’s hard for Miami to defend. Butler can’t guard everyone.

What about Kornet? During the game, Keith Harlan proclaimed “You cannot stop him!”

He was awesome. Heat should be embarrassed they let Kornet run rampant around them 

[liam]

I will concede that Miami was on the 2nd of a back to back so you have to factor that in a little. Remember our recent Bucks matchup?

That said… Porzingis is a difference maker in this matchup. We also have so many ways to score and it’s hard for Miami to defend. Butler can’t guard everyone.

What about Kornet? During the game, Keith Harlan proclaimed “You cannot stop him!”

Kevin Harlan?

[liam]

Love this guy! Focus on defense only in his videos.
https://youtu.be/9yckPFfHOPY?si=GDNeNyMrWRP-OI61

LOL

[Vermont Green]

This game defied my extra possessions stats theory.  The Celtics gave up more ORebs (11 to 6) and more turnovers (11-5) which resulted in 11 more possessions for the Heat.  They ended up getting 14 more shots (94 to 80 FGA).  We had a few more FTA that accounted for the other 3 additional FGA by MIA.  But we hit 9 more shots, including 6 more 3s, and 9 more FTs.  I guess when you shoot that well, you can overcome giving up 11 extra possessions.

We average about 43 3PA per game (most in the league) and took 40 in this game.  I like the trend.  More than 40 seems like too many.  We are now 15-9 on the road, OKC is best at 14-8.  We have been playing much better on the road the last month or so.  Like that trend too.

Is there any correlation to # of 3's attempted and either losses or close finishes (or giving up double-digit leads)?  It may not play out statistically especially since lots of 3's go up in garbage time in blowouts - and when 3's are falling more get attempted.  Maybe there is a sweet spot +/- # of threes where it becomes statistically detrimental.

The Celtics are at about 38% from 3 on the season (6th best).  There is going to be inherent variability game to game.  I don't know the statistics of this but my guess that a normal range would be say 30% to 45% on any given night would be an expected statistical normal deviation from the mean.

Qualitatively, what I see is that when they are taking less than 40 3PA, they are taking better shots on average so the percentage made is better.  Nothing wrong with taking a 3 when it is a good look.  The team average 3PA ranges from a low of 30.5 (Lakers) to a high of 42.7 (Celtics).  So even <40 is still pretty high.  We play with 3 guards and a big who can shot 3s so you expect this team to take more 3s than most teams.  But I do not believe that more 3PA is always better.

It would be interesting to see winning percentage and 3P% as a function of 3PA, but I don't know how to mine that data.  My conclusion of 40 3PA being some kind of a magic number or sweet spot is purely anecdotal based on looking at individual box scores over the course of the season.  At this point, I can't back that up with any hard aggregate numbers.

[celticinorlando]

Heat fans clinging to this narrative that they will just show up in the playoffs and win. But let's look at this closer:

-2 seasons ago. Miami was the 1 seed. Played hard throughout the regular season. Heat fans told us how important seeding and the regular season was. Now they do not feel the same.

-This Heat team plays so slowly. 29th in pace and really easy to defend.

-Herro is an absolute awful defender. Rozier isn't much better. Not sure you can play those 2 together.

-Miami caught the breaks last year. Should have been taken out in the play in round by the Bulls. Got a huge break when Giannis got hurt. Got another huge break when Tatum got hurt in game 7.

-Jimmy Butler looks like he wants no part of playing in Miami. He looks miserable and is quite lazy on the court.

-IF Miami ends up the 6 or 7 seed, they will have to go through the Sixers and Bucks just to get to Boston. That is not happening.

-Amazing what the Heat really are when their role players like Caleb Martin play like Caleb Martin.