Looking more at this ON/OFF +/- thing. The idea is to normalize everything to 100 Possessions. That is fair. You could normalize to 36 min or something else, but 100 Possessions is fine.
In Game 1, the BOS overall team had a net rating of +20.4 (there were only 93 possessions in the game so the 18 point win gets adjusted a little). So the theory is that for any player that had an individual net rating lower than +20.4 would be an indication that the team was better when that player was off the court. The individual net ratings for Game 1 were as follows:
Hauser +53.1
Holiday +30.8
Porzingis +29.6
Tatum +23.2
Team +20.4
Brown +17.8
Pritchard +17.1
Horford +16.3
White +5.9
I didn't bother with the garbage time guys. So as you would expect, half the regular minutes players were above the team NRTG and half were below. One game is a small sample size so there is some distortion.
For the entire playoffs, the team is +11.5 NRTG. Hauser, Horford, Holiday, and Tatum are the top 4 above the team line (in that order), Porzingis, White, Brown, Pritchard, Kornet are below the line (again ignoring deep bench players).
If you go by this, Hauser, Horford, and Holiday are all better in the playoffs than Tatum, Porzingis, and Brown. It makes no sense. Extrapolating to 100 possession for players who don't play much (like Hauser) will amplify their impact but Hauser is way up and Pritchard is not.
which is why it has to be used with players that actually drive the numbers. Bit players don't move the numbers they orbit the players that do. Holiday is a bit harder to gauge since he plays a ton of minutes, but he does function mostly like a role player in touches, usage, etc. Hauser has big numbers because he plays more with Tatum while Pritchard's are much lower because he plays more with Brown. Jrue with Tatum, White with Brown. Al with Tatum, KP with Brown. The two best players in the team drive the numbers for everyone else.
Is that right? Because by that argument you're contradicting your own argument that JB doesn't contribute to winning.
In the playoffs, JB is part of 6 of the top 3-man combinations for the C's., including +14.9 net points per 100 possessions when alongside DWhite and Jrue in a large 359 minute sample size.
Not convinced?
Brown is part 4 of the 5 lineups in 4-man combinations that significantly outscore their opponents per 100 possessions, including a lineup without Tatum.
Still not convinced?
Brown is part of the starting lineup that so far has gone 15-2 in the playoffs while averaging almost 37 minutes per game, and is net +19.1 points per 100 possessions. As you can see by the data, even Tatum is part of some lineups that are strongly negative per 100 possessions.
Still not convinced? Then look at the data for the regular season, which will illustrate the same thing.
Still not convinced? Then use common sense. Brown is part of the starting lineup that has led Boston to the best record in the NBA this season, which has outperformed its opponents by +11.3 points per 100 possessions. During the playoffs, he is shooting an amazing 54% from the field, almost 37% from 3, and averaging almost 25 points per game. His turnover numbers are down. The assist numbers, like Tatum's, do not accurately portray his improved ballhandling and passing skills. All while being a beast on defense. And last time I checked, we're in the NBA Finals.
Few people will argue with you when you assert that Tatum is the best player on the team and impacts winning the most. But to continually state that JB doesn't impact winning when the winning results are happening right before your eyes (assuming you actually watch the games) is asinine. Even if the C's don't win it this year, your argument still stands on a shaky foundation.
Topic: Jaylen Brown appreciation thread (Read 107934 times)