If you asked me today (November 21), I would pick the Ravens to make the SB.
I'm not sold on the Dolphins just yet as they haven't beaten any good teams + the weather does get cold in January obviously which can be a factor if they play a road game in tough conditions. Bengals obviously lost Burrow. Bills are too inconsistent. Idk, maybe they can get hot? Jacksonville is probably the most "well rounded" team but they've been shaky lately too.
Even though Lamar hasn't proven anything in the playoffs and the Ravens can be "Jekyll and Hyde", I think they have more pieces on the team overall than previous years even with Andrews out, and their defense has been mostly good. They've also had some great wins over teams like Detroit, Seattle, Cincinnati (with Burrow), etc.
KC will always have a shot with Mahomes, but something just seems off about that team. Obviously it's just Kelce, and their receivers suck, but their O-Line is also shaky. Mahomes is taking some hits back there. Kind of reminds me of the 2009 and 2019 Pats, both had great seasons but were evidently flawed and bounced early in the playoffs. If KC doesn't finish with the 1 seed, they play an extra game and for the first time, are likely playing a road playoff game at some point. If that happens I also wouldn't rule out the possibility they play a team like Buffalo in the wild card round, which can be a sneaky upset alert