In:  Porzingis, Brissett, Banton, Svi, Walsh, (open roster spot)

Out:  Smart, Grant, Gallinari, Muscala, Griffin, Champagnie

Obviously, things can change, and there's additional context regarding the second apron, etc.  We added a first rounder and several second rounders, which may reap future benefits.  And, hopefully the additions to the coaching staff and an off-season of work for Joe pay off.  But, for this thread, the question is simpler:  has the personnel on the floor improved? 

In consideration of that, it probably makes sense to try to analyze beyond a "best case, everybody stays healthy for 82 games" perspective.  What's a reasonable projection?

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

Quote from: johnnygreen on September 06, 2023, 11:15:17 AM

I'm looking at the outgoing players, and Gallinari sticks out. We didn't really lose him as a player because he never played a single second.

Quote

For the sake of comparison I wouldn’t include galinari since we knew at this time last year he wasn’t playing or Muscala cause he wasn’t on the team

I hadn't considered that people would view it that way, i.e., is the team better at the start of this season as it was at the same time as last year, or is the team better than it was at the end of last year.

I was considering a more basic analysis:  if we'd kept the existing roster in place for 2024, how would that team do compared to the actual roster we have in place?

So, Gallo "counts", as does Muscala, for whatever they can give a team in 2023-24.

Quote from: Atzar on September 06, 2023, 11:17:34 AM

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

I agree with your overall assessment:  higher upside.  I also think that if this coming season played out 100 times, we'd probably be worse in about 60% - 70% of them, because significant injuries are very likely.  Hopefully those don't hit at playoff time.

I do have some disagreements regarding the sentiment that "it's really just those three guys [KP, Grant, Smart]".  They'll have the biggest individual impacts among the changes, but I do think that Gallinari and Muscala will be quality players this season. 

Essentially, we've replaced Grant, Gallo and Moose with KP, and Smart's contributions with a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. role for White/Brogdon/Pritchard.  I feel alright about the second half of that equation, but trading away all of our big man depth for a very injury prone player scares me.  If Brad had found a replacement big or two, I'd be fine, but for whatever reason he neglected the decision (drafting a wing and signing three wings / guards in free agency).

So, overall, higher upside.  But, also more holes this year than last.  My 10,000 foot view is that championship rosters should probably have more than seven reliable rotation players, particularly when more than half of those players are likely to miss substantial time.