How much have we improved?

[Roy H.]

Higher ceiling and higher floor, but with more overall risk due to injury concerns and a weaker bench. Though I do think people are underestimating what having a legit third option should do to our offense. The Jays have legitimately never had a third star-level player next to them, which should help take a lot of pressure off of them. And I think you’ll see the most improvement in the non-Tatum minutes when we’ve been legitimately killed the last few years.

I’ll also add that we have to include the coaching additions in the calculus. Coaching was a significant weak point for us last year, due to a combination of Joe’s (lack of) experience, the bench attrition, and the lingering effects of the Ime stuff. All of that should be majorly improved or resolved this year, so I think that alone will be a major forward step for us. Having Lee and especially Cassell is going to be a godsend for this group.

I'm curious, how do you get to higher floor?  I definitely understand higher ceiling.

[gouki88]

I think we've improved a fair bit. We've added the most talented player of the bunch you've listed (by a fair margin), our roster is more balanced, and I think we've pivoted away from some of the guys that got us into trouble with their inconsistency in Smart & Williams.

We also have a much-improved coaching staff.

Injuries are the only concern

[Kernewek]

Higher ceiling and higher floor, but with more overall risk due to injury concerns and a weaker bench. Though I do think people are underestimating what having a legit third option should do to our offense. The Jays have legitimately never had a third star-level player next to them, which should help take a lot of pressure off of them. And I think you’ll see the most improvement in the non-Tatum minutes when we’ve been legitimately killed the last few years.

I’ll also add that we have to include the coaching additions in the calculus. Coaching was a significant weak point for us last year, due to a combination of Joe’s (lack of) experience, the bench attrition, and the lingering effects of the Ime stuff. All of that should be majorly improved or resolved this year, so I think that alone will be a major forward step for us. Having Lee and especially Cassell is going to be a godsend for this group.

Agree with this. I expect the defense to backslide a bit but the offence to be a bit more regularly impressive (not as high a peak as the start to last season, perhaps, but probably not the doldrums we saw by the end of the year).

For me the higher floor comes with more regular playing time for fewer boom-or-bust players - even if I'm still salty Smart is gone it's possible he's already played his best NBA season. Equally likely he makes me walk back that sentence, though. Brogdon should be healthy and White as starting point guard with KP at the four makes the offense a lot more exciting.

[green_bballers13]

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

I agree with your overall assessment:  higher upside.  I also think that if this coming season played out 100 times, we'd probably be worse in about 60% - 70% of them, because significant injuries are very likely.  Hopefully those don't hit at playoff time.

I do have some disagreements regarding the sentiment that "it's really just those three guys [KP, Grant, Smart]".  They'll have the biggest individual impacts among the changes, but I do think that Gallinari and Muscala will be quality players this season. 

Essentially, we've replaced Grant, Gallo and Moose with KP, and Smart's contributions with a larger role for White/Brogdon/Pritchard.  I feel alright about the second half of that equation, but trading away all of our big man depth for a very injury prone player scares me.  If Brad had found a replacement big or two, I'd be fine, but for whatever reason he neglected the decision (drafting a wing and signing three wings / guards in free agency).

So, overall, higher upside.  But, also more holes this year than last.  My 10,000 foot view is that championship rosters should probably have more than seven reliable rotation players, particularly when more than half of those players are likely to miss substantial time.

The Nuggets just won with 8 guys. Two of them were Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

[Vermont Green]

I think they have improved based on better roster balance.  Adding Porzingis addressed our biggest positional need (big depth).  Smart was subtracted from our position with the most depth (combo guard).  This change will allow us to start two bigs again, like in 2021-22, when the team played some historically good basketball.  So in that regard, I feel our top 7 or 8 are better.  We can play big.  We won't be forced to play small.

Porzingis is a bit of a wild card, we won't really be sure what he can give the team until we see him on the court with this team, but I am expecting that he is going to be really good.  He has been a really good player his whole career, but he seems ready to get down to business this season with this team.  We may see the best of him yet.

As to depth, I think people are reacting to losing Grant as the back up PF.  He was our 3rd big last season.  This season, Horford will be the 3rd big (assuming Porzingis and Williams start).  There is not a reliable 4th big right now but there was not a reliable 4th big last season either.  It was Horford, RWill, and Grant, then Griffin and Kornet.  This season it is Porzingis, RWill, and Horford, then maybe Kornet and Griffin again.  That right there is already better.  Plus we have Brissett as a swing/big who I expect to give some useful minutes, especially if Griffin does not end up signing on.

Offsetting this is loosing some of the combo guard depth.  But we won't need as many guard minutes this season due to playing more bigs.  I think we are still going to be just fine with White, Brown, and Brogdon taking the guard minutes with Pritchard playing some and of course Svi if things get really thin.

[gouki88]

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

I agree with your overall assessment:  higher upside.  I also think that if this coming season played out 100 times, we'd probably be worse in about 60% - 70% of them, because significant injuries are very likely.  Hopefully those don't hit at playoff time.

I do have some disagreements regarding the sentiment that "it's really just those three guys [KP, Grant, Smart]".  They'll have the biggest individual impacts among the changes, but I do think that Gallinari and Muscala will be quality players this season. 

Essentially, we've replaced Grant, Gallo and Moose with KP, and Smart's contributions with a larger role for White/Brogdon/Pritchard.  I feel alright about the second half of that equation, but trading away all of our big man depth for a very injury prone player scares me.  If Brad had found a replacement big or two, I'd be fine, but for whatever reason he neglected the decision (drafting a wing and signing three wings / guards in free agency).

So, overall, higher upside.  But, also more holes this year than last.  My 10,000 foot view is that championship rosters should probably have more than seven reliable rotation players, particularly when more than half of those players are likely to miss substantial time.

The Nuggets just won with 8 guys. Two of them were Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

As well as Jeff Green (ancient) and Braun (non-lotto rookie).

That being said, Denver also have one of the best offensive players to ever play the game, and (IMO, of course) the 6th best centre of all time.

[jpotter33]

Higher ceiling and higher floor, but with more overall risk due to injury concerns and a weaker bench. Though I do think people are underestimating what having a legit third option should do to our offense. The Jays have legitimately never had a third star-level player next to them, which should help take a lot of pressure off of them. And I think you’ll see the most improvement in the non-Tatum minutes when we’ve been legitimately killed the last few years.

I’ll also add that we have to include the coaching additions in the calculus. Coaching was a significant weak point for us last year, due to a combination of Joe’s (lack of) experience, the bench attrition, and the lingering effects of the Ime stuff. All of that should be majorly improved or resolved this year, so I think that alone will be a major forward step for us. Having Lee and especially Cassell is going to be a godsend for this group.

I'm curious, how do you get to higher floor?  I definitely understand higher ceiling.

Mainly due to more offensive consistency by having a legit third option who is also a high-level shooter. Most of that comes from having the ability to play both Brown AND Zinger when Tatum is sitting, as that was our biggest weak spot last year when we became an average ball club without Tatum. Zinger should drastically help with that. Further, having that legit third option will also help on those rare occasions when both of the Jays are off.

To be fair, though, I'm purely considering "ceiling" and "floor" from a basketball perspective. If also considering injury risks, then I think the "floor" question is more borderline or about the same as last year - overall basketball improvements are offset by the higher reliance on injury-prone players.

[blink]

I was going to type almost exactly what you said in the bolded section.  Our ceiling went up, but that depends completely on health.
I also agree with Mo that our bench is so badly unproven that it works as a net negative for us.  Now maybe someone steps up, but counting on that doesn't seem to be logical.

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

[Moranis]

Hard to say.  I think our ceiling has risen, but relying on Porzingis to stay healthy has historically not been the best gamble.  At his best he's an All-Star level third option who impacts both ends and should synergize well with Tatum.  At his worst he's not on the court when it matters. 

I suspect Smart is beginning to decline.  His style of play tends to age quickly.  He's already not as quick as he was.  Also, we have the guard depth to absorb his departure.  And is Grant ever going to be consistent?  He looked like a key roleplayer in year one and year three, and he looked like a scrub in year two and a significant chunk of year four.  In either case I don't think he's irreplaceable. 

It's really just those three guys.  The rest of the incoming/outgoing players don't interest me much.  Maybe Brissett surprises us, I don't know.  He sucked last year but has been useful in the past. 

Overall I think we're better in a perfect world, but we're rolling the dice on team health more than ever.

I agree with your overall assessment:  higher upside.  I also think that if this coming season played out 100 times, we'd probably be worse in about 60% - 70% of them, because significant injuries are very likely.  Hopefully those don't hit at playoff time.

I do have some disagreements regarding the sentiment that "it's really just those three guys [KP, Grant, Smart]".  They'll have the biggest individual impacts among the changes, but I do think that Gallinari and Muscala will be quality players this season. 

Essentially, we've replaced Grant, Gallo and Moose with KP, and Smart's contributions with a larger role for White/Brogdon/Pritchard.  I feel alright about the second half of that equation, but trading away all of our big man depth for a very injury prone player scares me.  If Brad had found a replacement big or two, I'd be fine, but for whatever reason he neglected the decision (drafting a wing and signing three wings / guards in free agency).

So, overall, higher upside.  But, also more holes this year than last.  My 10,000 foot view is that championship rosters should probably have more than seven reliable rotation players, particularly when more than half of those players are likely to miss substantial time.

The Nuggets just won with 8 guys. Two of them were Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

As well as Jeff Green (ancient) and Braun (non-lotto rookie).

That being said, Denver also have one of the best offensive players to ever play the game, and (IMO, of course) the 6th best centre of all time.

They also were moderately healthy during the season and were healthy come playoff time.  If they weren't, they don't win the title I don't think.  They are still pretty light on the bench but did add Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday. So they saw it was a problem and at least addressed it somewhat. 

[celticinorlando]

I think it really depends on how much JT and JB improve. Those two guys have to be better in the playoffs. I am hoping JB has improved his court vision and his ability to go left. Also hope he stops driving into 4 defenders and taking a wild fade away.

I think Smart's subtraction is really addition esp for JT and JB to be the voice in the locker room. Also it might help Joe because Marcus was so critical of him.

I do not think the bench is any better. Still a lot of G league level players that aren't really championship guys.

I already expect Rob to miss games as well as KP.

[Vermont Green]

Health is a key factor for all teams but not necessarily an equal factor.  Teams that come to mind, LAL, MIL, PHI, PHX, LAC, DEN all have injury worries that are probably at least as concerning as Boston's.  GSW, CLE, NYK are some potentially top teams that don't seem to have as much injury risk going into the season, but that can change.  People like to couch predictions by saying things like "if healthy" this team or that team is better.  But injury risk is a factor that you have to consider when you make a prediction or otherwise assess a team.

I look at the Celtics this way.  I think Horford is going to plug along the next couple of season much like he has the last couple.  His minutes will be managed but he most likely will be there when they need him to be.  I also think they are going to figure out a way to keep RWill on the court enough.  The wild card is Porzingis.  We have him 3 seasons.  Probably at least 1 of those seasons will be impacted by injury in some significant way.  You just have to expect that.  But I think if we have Porzingis and at least one of Horford or Williams at any given time, that is enough to allow us to contend for a title, to be competitive against any team in a playoff series.

The other player whose durability seems to be a concern is Brogdon.  I think he is going to be fine.  He is the 6th man, a perfect role for him.  Plenty of opportunity to work around things and manage his minutes.  If he was needed to be a 36 min starter, I might feel differently. 

In the end, some teams are going to be healthier than others going into the playoffs.  This is a factor for every team, not just the Celtics.  Something could happen to Tatum or Brown or White, who knows.  But based on the durability history of the individual Celtic's players and diversity of good players that we have, I think we are going to be a solid title contender at least 2 of the next 3 seasons, with 1 season derailed due to untimely injuries.  And to take it one step further, I like our chances going into this season.

[mobilija]

I really think you guys aren't giving enough credit to how much better Open Roster Spot is to Champagnie...

[W8ting2McHale]

I really think you guys aren't giving enough credit to how much better Open Roster Spot is to Champagnie...

It doesn't matter. Open R. Spot will never see the court with Maz coaching.

[KG Living Legend]

 It doesn't really matter until Go time in the playoffs.  I don't care if we are a top two seed or the seventh seed. What matters is how Zinger meshes with the big boys in crunch time.

 Evan Turner and Iggy essentially making fun of Smart being our third option says a lot. He's not wrong.  Now the third option is Zinger most of the time, D White, or Brogdon. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

It doesn't really matter until Go time in the playoffs.  I don't care if we are a top two seed or the seventh seed. What matters is how Zinger meshes with the big boys in crunch time.

 Evan Turner and Iggy essentially making fun of Smart being our third option says a lot. He's not wrong.  Now the third option is Zinger most of the time, D White, or Brogdon.

You are absolutely right in the first paragraph. In the second, what comments are you referring to? I haven't heard those.