2023-2024 NCAAF Official Thread

[tazzmaniac]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

No it wouldn't but that doesn't matter.  I was focused on the good teams played.  I find it hard to see how Michigan could be determined to be the best team when OSU was the only challenging team they played was OSU.  How good is there defense when they haven't faced dynamic offenses?   

[green_bballers13]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

No it wouldn't but that doesn't matter.  I was focused on the good teams played.  I find it hard to see how Michigan could be determined to be the best team when OSU was the only challenging team they played was OSU.  How good is there defense when they haven't faced dynamic offenses?   

Bama has been playing top notch football teams throughout the year. Michigan is in for a rude awakening.

Bama 31, Michigan 24

I think Bama gets their revenge on Texas 42-31

[tazzmaniac]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season. 

[Moranis]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Auburn wasn't the beginning of the season though, and literally the week before New Mexico St. beat Auburn by 21 points at Auburn. Now outside of that game since mid October they have played better.

As for Georgia, aren't you the one that was arguing all of Georgia's injuries made them a lesser team and that is why they should still be in the playoff.  Can't have it both ways.

As for Michigan, they have the best QB, the best RB (and RB group), and the best defense of the teams in the playoffs.  They are the only returning playoff team as well which certainly can make a difference in that setting. As for schedules, we will see how strong the conferences are going forward.  The SEC lost its 2 biggest non-con games and did so rather handedly.  Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

[green_bballers13]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

According to the rankings, they have 5 of the top 13 teams. The conference might not be as strong as previous years, but that's pretty good.

[celticsclay]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

According to the rankings, they have 5 of the top 13 teams. The conference might not be as strong as previous years, but that's pretty good.

I agree. I think tazz has made a lot more compelling argument here. Mo’s argument seems to just basically be his feelings and wanting to support the big ten as osu guy. I don’t think Ohio state is any better or worse based on how Michigan does so it seems like dubious motivation

[Moranis]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

According to the rankings, they have 5 of the top 13 teams. The conference might not be as strong as previous years, but that's pretty good.

Sure, but my point was maybe there shouldn't be that many or maybe there should be more and the SEC is secretly awesome this year.  All we do know is that in the 2 most high profile non-con games the SEC played, their champion and another of those 5 teams got absolutely manhandled.  The "lowly" ACC has a winning record against the SEC this year.  Are the rankings because the SEC is good or because of a misplaced perception that the SEC is good? 

I mean New Mexico State beat Auburn by 21 points.  NEW MEXICO STATE.  You a know a team that lost to 3-9 Massachusetts and 5-8 Hawaii.  Who is apparently so bad they don't count as a quality win for Liberty (who beat them twice).  Arkansas lost to BYU.  A&M lost to Miami (who went just 3-5 in the ACC).  Vande lost twice in the non-con, including to Wake Forest the worst team in the ACC (Florida and South Carolina both lost twice in the non-con as well).  There were obviously some nice wins like UK over Louisville and Missouri over KSU, but this wasn't a banner year for the SEC. And you can just watch the games and realize a lot of those "good" teams skated by a lot more than they would have in years past. I'd argue it is because they aren't as good as the perception of them. 

[green_bballers13]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

According to the rankings, they have 5 of the top 13 teams. The conference might not be as strong as previous years, but that's pretty good.

Sure, but my point was maybe there shouldn't be that many or maybe there should be more and the SEC is secretly awesome this year.  All we do know is that in the 2 most high profile non-con games the SEC played, their champion and another of those 5 teams got absolutely manhandled.  The "lowly" ACC has a winning record against the SEC this year.  Are the rankings because the SEC is good or because of a misplaced perception that the SEC is good? 

I mean New Mexico State beat Auburn by 21 points.  NEW MEXICO STATE.  You a know a team that lost to 3-9 Massachusetts and 5-8 Hawaii.  Who is apparently so bad they don't count as a quality win for Liberty (who beat them twice).  Arkansas lost to BYU.  A&M lost to Miami (who went just 3-5 in the ACC).  Vande lost twice in the non-con, including to Wake Forest the worst team in the ACC (Florida and South Carolina both lost twice in the non-con as well).  There were obviously some nice wins like UK over Louisville and Missouri over KSU, but this wasn't a banner year for the SEC. And you can just watch the games and realize a lot of those "good" teams skated by a lot more than they would have in years past. I'd argue it is because they aren't as good as the perception of them.

So we agree that the SEC isn't as good as previous years. It's probably why Georgia is out and Texas/Washington are in. The committee must agree with you as well.

[Moranis]

Also for further support

Sports-reference CFB has the Big Ten with the best SOS at 4.07.  Pac 12 was next at 3.96, then the Big 12 at 3.84, and then the SEC at 3.11.  The ACC was 2.43.  The other 5 smaller conferences were all negative. 

Michigan has the best SRS by a pretty wide margin on everyone else, which measures point differential against schedule strength.

[celticsclay]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

According to the rankings, they have 5 of the top 13 teams. The conference might not be as strong as previous years, but that's pretty good.

Sure, but my point was maybe there shouldn't be that many or maybe there should be more and the SEC is secretly awesome this year.  All we do know is that in the 2 most high profile non-con games the SEC played, their champion and another of those 5 teams got absolutely manhandled.  The "lowly" ACC has a winning record against the SEC this year.  Are the rankings because the SEC is good or because of a misplaced perception that the SEC is good? 

I mean New Mexico State beat Auburn by 21 points.  NEW MEXICO STATE.  You a know a team that lost to 3-9 Massachusetts and 5-8 Hawaii.  Who is apparently so bad they don't count as a quality win for Liberty (who beat them twice).  Arkansas lost to BYU.  A&M lost to Miami (who went just 3-5 in the ACC).  Vande lost twice in the non-con, including to Wake Forest the worst team in the ACC (Florida and South Carolina both lost twice in the non-con as well).  There were obviously some nice wins like UK over Louisville and Missouri over KSU, but this wasn't a banner year for the SEC. And you can just watch the games and realize a lot of those "good" teams skated by a lot more than they would have in years past. I'd argue it is because they aren't as good as the perception of them.

This is a pretty convoluted post. New Mexico State beating Auburn was certainly a head scratcher but trying to use it as a referendum on how good the sec is or isn’t is very strange. You can do a 4 degrees of separation every year with terrible teams beating a team a team that beat a team that is great.

[tazzmaniac]

Alabama vs Texas with Bama winning it all is my prediction...NCAA will be happy..

I think it will be Alabama vs. Texas.  But I'm not as confident that Bama will beat Texas.

Michigan is the best team this year and I think after last year's debacle they will be ready.  Michigan over Bama covering the spread easily.  Less certain in other game as neither team has looked all that good of late. I think I'm leaning towards Washington to win outright, but I'd certainly take the points.

Why are they the best team?  The B1G overall is weak and even OSU was a bit down this season. 
Michigan's best OOC opponent was UNLV.  They struggled a bit with Maryland who was the only opponent other than OSU whose offense had a pulse.  Bama has had to play Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Georgia. 

Bama isn't TCU.  I'd refer you to the previous year's debacle against Georgia.  I don't expect a debacle but I think Bama will prevail due to talent advantage and Saban having several weeks to prepare.  Also Bama's OL and DL mostly controlled the lines against Georgia which I did not expect.  I've heard Michigan has been having some issues with their OL.  McCarthy is a nice QB but he certainly doesn't scare anyone. 

Texas will have a talent advantage over Washington.  Sark had a great gameplan prepared for Bama this year and you might remember his masterpiece against OSU in 2020/21 championship.  Washington has had the luxury of playing Pac-12 defenses.  Washington is going to have to control Texas' excellent front 7 to have a chance.

Need we list all the mediocre teams Bama struggled with this year?  It might have been half the teams they played.

Yep. Also, the Maryland game was without Harbaugh, on the road, and sandwiched between PSU and OSU. They were also up 23-3 and basically coasted after that. At no point in that game did anyone realistically believe Maryland was going to win even though the final ended up being 7 points. They beat OSU by 6, PSU by 9, and no one else was within 20.  Those 3 close games were the 3 without Harbaugh (though I suspect PSU and OSU would have been close anyway).

I just don't have a lot of faith in a team that needed a 4th and 31 miracle to beat 6-6 Auburn. I mean the week before New Mexico State beat Auburn 31-10. If Bama beats Michigan it won't be shocking or anything, but Michigan is pretty clearly the best team this year. I'd have had them as the 1 seed over Georgia had they actually beaten Bama (I know the committee would have had UM 2, I just think Michigan is better and played more consistently all year).

The Michigan/Maryland game was a 5-point game going into the 4th quarter.  In the 4th, Michigan scored 2 points and Maryland scored nothing.  The upset was sitting on the platter for Maryland.  I don't think Harbaugh missing from the games was significant.  The OC was rather aggressive against OSU and I thought it won them the game.  Would they have been as aggressive if Harbaugh was there? 

Crazy stuff happens playing at Auburn regardless of how good Auburn is.  You seem to be focusing on that game a lot and ignoring that Bama just defeated Georgia.  You may think Michigan is the best team but you haven't provided anything to justify why.  Playing more consistently all year doesn't mean that you are the best team.  It is all about what the teams are now.  Bama had lots of issues to deal with coming into the season and they struggled while doing so.  They still have areas for improvement but it is a much better team now than it was at the beginning of the season.

Auburn wasn't the beginning of the season though, and literally the week before New Mexico St. beat Auburn by 21 points at Auburn. Now outside of that game since mid October they have played better.

As for Georgia, aren't you the one that was arguing all of Georgia's injuries made them a lesser team and that is why they should still be in the playoff.  Can't have it both ways.

As for Michigan, they have the best QB, the best RB (and RB group), and the best defense of the teams in the playoffs.  They are the only returning playoff team as well which certainly can make a difference in that setting. As for schedules, we will see how strong the conferences are going forward.  The SEC lost its 2 biggest non-con games and did so rather handedly.  Maybe, and I know this may be shocking, the SEC isn't that good this year.

I haven't argued anything about Georgia.  I do think Georgia is one of the 4 best teams and I'm quite happy Bama won't have to face them again in the playoffs. 

I don't think McCarthy is the best QB and he might be the worst.  McCarthy certainly doesn't worry me.  Corum is good but Texas and Bama average more rushing yards.  We'll see exactly how great their defense is against offenses that have a pulse. 

[Roy H.]

Auburn wasn't the beginning of the season though, and literally the week before New Mexico St. beat Auburn by 21 points at Auburn. Now outside of that game since mid October they have played better.

I wouldn't get too caught up on the Auburn win.  Most teams have squeakers during the regular season.  FSU went to OT with Clemson, and barely got by a very bad BC team.  Washington beat WSU on a last second field goal.  Texas beat KSU (OT) and TCU by a FG, and Houston by a TD.  Georgia struggled with Auburn, as well, with the game tied with 3:00 left.

Michigan probably had the most dominant regular season, with Maryland their only close game outside of PSU and OSU (both top-10 schools).

[Moranis]

Auburn wasn't the beginning of the season though, and literally the week before New Mexico St. beat Auburn by 21 points at Auburn. Now outside of that game since mid October they have played better.

I wouldn't get too caught up on the Auburn win.  Most teams have squeakers during the regular season.  FSU went to OT with Clemson, and barely got by a very bad BC team.  Washington beat WSU on a last second field goal.  Texas beat KSU (OT) and TCU by a FG, and Houston by a TD.  Georgia struggled with Auburn, as well, with the game tied with 3:00 left.

Michigan probably had the most dominant regular season, with Maryland their only close game outside of PSU and OSU (both top-10 schools).

All teams do, but the recency of that game, how they won, and with the juxtaposition of Auburn's game the week prior, is a bit problematic.  It isn't like Alabama got up big and then coasted to the finish line. They needed a 4th and 31 miracle to win the game in the closing seconds against a mediocre at best team.  And it was 2 weeks ago, not early in the year.  Rivalry games are often harder games, but because it was a rivalry it would be hard to say Alabama wasn't focused on it, especially given where they were ranked at the time (so it wasn't what you'd typically call a trap game).

[tazzmaniac]

Auburn wasn't the beginning of the season though, and literally the week before New Mexico St. beat Auburn by 21 points at Auburn. Now outside of that game since mid October they have played better.

I wouldn't get too caught up on the Auburn win.  Most teams have squeakers during the regular season.  FSU went to OT with Clemson, and barely got by a very bad BC team.  Washington beat WSU on a last second field goal.  Texas beat KSU (OT) and TCU by a FG, and Houston by a TD.  Georgia struggled with Auburn, as well, with the game tied with 3:00 left.

Michigan probably had the most dominant regular season, with Maryland their only close game outside of PSU and OSU (both top-10 schools).

All teams do, but the recency of that game, how they won, and with the juxtaposition of Auburn's game the week prior, is a bit problematic.  It isn't like Alabama got up big and then coasted to the finish line. They needed a 4th and 31 miracle to win the game in the closing seconds against a mediocre at best team.  And it was 2 weeks ago, not early in the year.  Rivalry games are often harder games, but because it was a rivalry it would be hard to say Alabama wasn't focused on it, especially given where they were ranked at the time (so it wasn't what you'd typically call a trap game).

I can't explain Auburn losing to New Mexico State but Auburn isn't a terrible team.  They only lost to Georgia and Ole Miss by 7 points each.  Auburn/Alabama is a rivalry game regardless of both team's records going in and as I've said strange things happen playing at Auburn. 

10 years ago it was Kick 6 to give Auburn the win.  The 2017 championship run included a road loss to Auburn.  In 2019, Auburn won by 3 points with 2 pick 6s including one that went off Najee Harris' rump, and Bama missed what should have been game tying 30yd FG.  2 years ago Auburn shutdown Bama's offense sacking Bryce 7 times and then with less than 2 minutes Bryce led Bama on a 97-yard drive to tie the game which Bama won in OT.  Then this year it was 4-and-31. 

[Moranis]

Auburn beat only Miss St., Vanderbilt, and Arkansas in the SEC. Those 3 teams have 2 wins in conference MSU beating Ark and Ark somehow beating Florida in OT.  Auburn's other 3 wins are 3-9 Massachusetts, 6-6 Cal, and FCS 6-5 Samford.  I'm not sure how they can be considered anything other than a bad team.  I mean they aren't Vanderbilt terrible, but they are a bad team.

And if Bama wasn't prepared to play in Auburn, I'm not sure that is a selling point for Bama.