Author Topic: Jaylen Brown Supermax  (Read 57290 times)

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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #315 on: July 17, 2023, 10:41:23 AM »

Offline celticinorlando

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Celtics are in a bind. Can't trade him now because teams aren't going to take him if he isn't signed long term.

My guess is there is trade language Brown wants included. Money is pretty much set in stone.


Listening to a podcast this morning, that isn't the case.   The yearly raise is maxed out to 8%, but with the new TV money that will be coming in, the cap could go up more then that (the number used was 10% as an example).   So a trade kicker may be a piece of this.

The new TV deal is going to be something that will change things quite a bit. I expect it is going to be a huge number esp. with NBC trying to get back into the game.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #316 on: July 17, 2023, 10:53:47 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #317 on: July 17, 2023, 10:58:08 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

The thing is.... he does sometimes score in these 1 on 4 situations. I don't think many complain when he dribbles through a defense and scores. We just tend to notice when the TO occurs. Which is weird, because JB drops some of the biggest thunder dunks in the game.
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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #318 on: July 17, 2023, 11:03:05 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

I guess in fairness, those guys are all playmakers for their teammates, so you expect higher turnovers from them.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02.html#all_playoffs-series

JB has had 20+ turnovers in each of his last six playoff series.  Prior to that, he'd never had more than 17.  (I wish that chart listed turnovers per game.)



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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #319 on: July 17, 2023, 11:08:54 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

You missed another major factor - assists:

Garland - 7.8 per game

Morant - 8.1 per game

Doncic - 8.0 per game

Young - 10.2 per game

Brown - 3.5 (!) per game

That’s the issue. He’s really only a scorer - a primary iso scorer at that - but doesn’t really do much else to playmake for others or help his team offensively. So of course his awful ball handling, decision-making, and turnover rate are going to be more impactful and noticeable given that he does much less offensively on the whole.

His turnovers would be much more palatable if he was doing more to help the team offensively, which justifies the risk. But he simply doesn’t. And that’s why even with Tatum only having a little over one assist more per game - though that’s certainly trending up after his improvements - you hear less about his turnovers per game, as he’s helping doing other things for his team. Hell, even JT’s presence out there is helpful for his teammates, as he draws double teams and commands the attention of the defense in ways that JB simply doesn’t/can’t.
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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #320 on: July 17, 2023, 11:11:48 AM »

Offline cman88

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so the answer from fans is to trade him for lesser players and kill our championship hopes? two 15ppg players doesn't equal one 27ppg player.

all to feel good that we didn't overpay Jaylen based on how you "value him" as a player? this is some Belichick type fan stuff.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #321 on: July 17, 2023, 11:12:28 AM »

Offline celticinorlando

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

I guess in fairness, those guys are all playmakers for their teammates, so you expect higher turnovers from them.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02.html#all_playoffs-series

JB has had 20+ turnovers in each of his last six playoff series.  Prior to that, he'd never had more than 17.  (I wish that chart listed turnovers per game.)

I think this is my biggest frustration with him...the turnovers in the playoffs. In a time when he needs to play smarter the turnovers go up.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #322 on: July 17, 2023, 11:12:32 AM »

Offline cman88

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #323 on: July 17, 2023, 11:17:46 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

I think the "JB Truthers" don't believe that he scored 27ppg or made 2nd team all NBA. If you show them the link that says he made 2nd team, they will tell you he didn't deserve it. If you say that he was a top 10 scorer and averaged almost 7 rebounds at guard, they will tell you that he has very poor handles. The goal posts keep moving.
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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #324 on: July 17, 2023, 11:18:24 AM »

Offline celticinorlando

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

Do you not agree he needs to be better in the playoffs? His average ppg in the ECF dropped by almost 10 full points and his turnovers increased.

Regular season stats are nice and all but you make your legacy in the playoffs. And for what he is going to get paid, he needs to be better in the most important time of the year.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #325 on: July 17, 2023, 11:21:54 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

Do you not agree he needs to be better in the playoffs? His average ppg in the ECF dropped by almost 10 full points and his turnovers increased.

I agree that JB needs to be better in the playoffs.

I also think Tatum needs to improve, in addition to the rest of the team. Miami and Denver had role players such as Gabe Vincent and Bruce Brown play very well. I'm hoping Brogdon, Robert Williams, and our other bench guys step it up.
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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #326 on: July 17, 2023, 11:24:30 AM »

Offline celticinorlando

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

Do you not agree he needs to be better in the playoffs? His average ppg in the ECF dropped by almost 10 full points and his turnovers increased.

I agree that JB needs to be better in the playoffs.

I also think Tatum needs to improve, in addition to the rest of the team. Miami and Denver had role players such as Gabe Vincent and Bruce Brown play very well. I'm hoping Brogdon, Robert Williams, and our other bench guys step it up.

Agree on all these points. I would like to see Brogdan healthy for the playoffs and Rob also.

Maybe Joe trusts his role players this year in the playoffs (Hauser, PP, Brissett).

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #327 on: July 17, 2023, 11:37:07 AM »

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if Brown is as bad as some fans say, how did he average 27ppg on 49% shooting and make the all-nba team?

Do you not agree he needs to be better in the playoffs? His average ppg in the ECF dropped by almost 10 full points and his turnovers increased.

Regular season stats are nice and all but you make your legacy in the playoffs. And for what he is going to get paid, he needs to be better in the most important time of the year.
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Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #328 on: July 17, 2023, 11:46:16 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I think the "bad handles" thing is overplayed.  Not necessarily untrue, he does dribble himself into trouble more than he should, but somehow it seems to get blown our of proportion.

If you look at season total turnovers last season, Garland, Morant, Doncic, and Trae Young, all had more.  Harden, Lavine, and Holiday were all about the same.  I acknowledge that Brown is not a primary ball handler but his usage (27.1%) in right up there with most of these guys.

You missed another major factor - assists:

Garland - 7.8 per game

Morant - 8.1 per game

Doncic - 8.0 per game

Young - 10.2 per game

Brown - 3.5 (!) per game

That’s the issue. He’s really only a scorer - a primary iso scorer at that - but doesn’t really do much else to playmake for others or help his team offensively. So of course his awful ball handling, decision-making, and turnover rate are going to be more impactful and noticeable given that he does much less offensively on the whole.

His turnovers would be much more palatable if he was doing more to help the team offensively, which justifies the risk. But he simply doesn’t. And that’s why even with Tatum only having a little over one assist more per game - though that’s certainly trending up after his improvements - you hear less about his turnovers per game, as he’s helping doing other things for his team. Hell, even JT’s presence out there is helpful for his teammates, as he draws double teams and commands the attention of the defense in ways that JB simply doesn’t/can’t.

I didn't ignore assists.  I tried to normalize the total turnovers to usage.  The ball is in Brown's hands a lot, in the same range as any of these other players.  So how many of those touches lead to turnovers.  To me that was a fair way to compare.  It matters less whether he turned it over trying to pass or shoot.

I agree, Brown does dribble into trouble more than he should (I thought I made that clear).  That is part ability ("handles" if you will) and part decision making.  It is also part how the rest of the team is executing on offense.  But statistically, when you look at turnovers of other high usage players, Brown is not that far off of the norm.

Another normalized stat you can look at is Turnover Ratio (Turnover Ratio, aka turnover percentage, is the percentage of a player's possessions that end in a turnover.).  So this reflects turnovers normalized directly to the number of possessions by the player.  Brown was 10.1% in the regular season, pretty much in the middle of the pack for the league overall.  This went up to 12.5% in the playoffs last season so this supports the premise that he got worse in the playoffs.

For context, I went back and looked at Brown's playoff Turnover Ratio for the last several seasons:

2019-20     10.5%
2020-21     Did not play
2021-22     11.7%
2022-23     12.5%

So seems to be getting worse.  Probably trying to do more, maybe too much.  But this is still to me, as much about decision making as anything.  Again, absolutely something he should be working on, but I don't see it as some major flaw in this game.

Re: Jaylen Brown Supermax
« Reply #329 on: July 17, 2023, 11:51:35 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Completely agree Vermont Green. I think that JB is trying to make too much happen with these TO's. Some might say he has horrible handles, horrible IQ, or both. I don't understand this Chicken Little take on JB. 2nd team All NBA is 2nd team. You cant take that away from him at this point.
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