Why does everyone say getting Zinger means it's a given G Will is gone?

[Roy H.]

I'm curious, who are the other 8/5 guys making $15 million per season?  Are those considered good or bad contracts?

Is Torrey Craig looking at a $15m/season deal? Thomas Bryant? Eubanks?

Royce O'Neale is paid less than $10m/season. Larry Nance is on ~$10m/season. Boucher is similar.

These guys are all similar-ish. Between 6-10PPG, 4-6RPG, and varying levels of versatility and defensive capability. None would dream of $15m a season

For what it’s worth, John Hollinger at the Athletic ranks Grant as the 7th best free agent PF, with an expected value of $15.1 million in production next season.  Torrey Craig was the 22nd ranked small forward and worth the minimum salary.  Drew Eubanks was the 9th-ranked center and worth $5 million.

I would be interested to see why Grant is apparently worth so much more than Craig, a near-identical player. The 8 year age gap does not = the difference between a minimum & $15m/season

Welp, John Hollinger just made our off-season a lot clearer.

Let Grant walk, and sign Thomas Bryant, Torrey Craig, and Yatu Watanabe.  Unfortunately, the PG market is going to be rough (Ish Smith?), with guys like Tre Jones getting $20,909,844 per season.

[Celtics2021]

I'm curious, who are the other 8/5 guys making $15 million per season?  Are those considered good or bad contracts?

Is Torrey Craig looking at a $15m/season deal? Thomas Bryant? Eubanks?

Royce O'Neale is paid less than $10m/season. Larry Nance is on ~$10m/season. Boucher is similar.

These guys are all similar-ish. Between 6-10PPG, 4-6RPG, and varying levels of versatility and defensive capability. None would dream of $15m a season

For what it’s worth, John Hollinger at the Athletic ranks Grant as the 7th best free agent PF, with an expected value of $15.1 million in production next season.  Torrey Craig was the 22nd ranked small forward and worth the minimum salary.  Drew Eubanks was the 9th-ranked center and worth $5 million.

I would be interested to see why Grant is apparently worth so much more than Craig, a near-identical player. The 8 year age gap does not = the difference between a minimum & $15m/season

I don’t know, personally.  It’s not my model, but there are presumably more inputs to it than points scored and age.  For instance, the Suns, an otherwise good team, were outscored by 3.2 points per 100 when Craig played, which was 9.9 points worse than when he sat.  Further, there’s only been one season in his career when Craig has had a positive net rating, despite generally playing for very good teams (Phoenix, Denver, Milwaukee).  Grant’s teams have generally performed far better than Craig when he played, and while he also has a negative on-off, it’s much closer to zero.

[celticinorlando]

Still extremely concerned with the state of the bench.

Brogdan and Rob/Al the only known commodities

Hauser still hasn’t gotten to trustworthiness

Kornet is a wasted spot

Pp going to be here?

Walsh a rookie

Davison young

Everyone else is g league level.

[Vermont Green]

None of us know what kind of offers Grant is going to get but I think it is overly simplistic to say he is an 8 pt / 5 reb guy.  Grant is a decent player with a decent track record, including some big playoff games.  Players like PJ Tucker get paid (perhaps overpaid).  Grant may end up one of those types of players.  Whether it is $8.6M (the QO) or $10M, or $15M, signing Grant is going to put us over the second apron, unless we do some salary mitigation such as trading Brogdon for a pick.

To me, the Porzingis trade which added about $7M, pretty much locked in that we are going to be over the second apron, or so close to it that we can't do anything to improve the team anyway.  That trade counted in 2022-23 season so the new CBA rules don't apply to it.  We could add salary.  I think if anything, the Porzingis trade is an indication that the Celtics have accepted being over the apron and the decision on Grant will depend on what offer they need to match, what other player are available, all the normal things.

It is true that we don't want Grant on a "tough to trade" contract.  I don't know what that threshold is, but I am sure it is part of the calculation

[Roy H.]

None of us know what kind of offers Grant is going to get but I think it is overly simplistic to say he is an 8 pt / 5 reb guy.  Grant is a decent player with a decent track record, including some big playoff games.  Players like PJ Tucker get paid (perhaps overpaid).  Grant may end up one of those types of players.  Whether it is $8.6M (the QO) or $10M, or $15M, signing Grant is going to put us over the second apron, unless we do some salary mitigation such as trading Brogdon for a pick.

To me, the Porzingis trade which added about $7M, pretty much locked in that we are going to be over the second apron, or so close to it that we can't do anything to improve the team anyway.  That trade counted in 2022-23 season so the new CBA rules don't apply to it.  We could add salary.  I think if anything, the Porzingis trade is an indication that the Celtics have accepted being over the apron and the decision on Grant will depend on what offer they need to match, what other player are available, all the normal things.

It is true that we don't want Grant on a "tough to trade" contract.  I don't know what that threshold is, but I am sure it is part of the calculation

A couple of things:

We're definitely not locked in as being above the second apron.  For instance, we can field this team below that apron:

Timelord / Horford / vet minimum
Porzingis / vet minimum
Tatum / Hauser / Walsh
Brown / White / MLE
Brogdon / Pritchard / Davidson

There wouldn't be a ton of flexibility, but it's doable.  (Under that scenario, we waive Kornet and Champagnie, and don't sign Grant).  Obviously, there's a wide range in free agents.  If the names are Bryant, Craig and Richardson, we're in great shape.  If they're Kornet, Fitts and Stauskas, we may miss Grant.

As for Grant, I do think it's as simple as his production.  He's an 8/5 guy.  His intangibles are that he has a big mouth, is very inconsistent in the playoffs, and was dropped out of the rotation (albeit by a coach in way over his head). 

[celticinorlando]

No problem letting grant walk if he’s not going to be a guy Joe plays. Just get something out of it. Player back in a sign and trade or use of the MLE

[Vermont Green]

None of us know what kind of offers Grant is going to get but I think it is overly simplistic to say he is an 8 pt / 5 reb guy.  Grant is a decent player with a decent track record, including some big playoff games.  Players like PJ Tucker get paid (perhaps overpaid).  Grant may end up one of those types of players.  Whether it is $8.6M (the QO) or $10M, or $15M, signing Grant is going to put us over the second apron, unless we do some salary mitigation such as trading Brogdon for a pick.

To me, the Porzingis trade which added about $7M, pretty much locked in that we are going to be over the second apron, or so close to it that we can't do anything to improve the team anyway.  That trade counted in 2022-23 season so the new CBA rules don't apply to it.  We could add salary.  I think if anything, the Porzingis trade is an indication that the Celtics have accepted being over the apron and the decision on Grant will depend on what offer they need to match, what other player are available, all the normal things.

It is true that we don't want Grant on a "tough to trade" contract.  I don't know what that threshold is, but I am sure it is part of the calculation

A couple of things:

We're definitely not locked in as being above the second apron.  For instance, we can field this team below that apron:

Timelord / Horford / vet minimum
Porzingis / vet minimum
Tatum / Hauser / Walsh
Brown / White / MLE
Brogdon / Pritchard / Davidson

There wouldn't be a ton of flexibility, but it's doable.  (Under that scenario, we waive Kornet and Champagnie, and don't sign Grant).  Obviously, there's a wide range in free agents.  If the names are Bryant, Craig and Richardson, we're in great shape.  If they're Kornet, Fitts and Stauskas, we may miss Grant.

As for Grant, I do think it's as simple as his production.  He's an 8/5 guy.  His intangibles are that he has a big mouth, is very inconsistent in the playoffs, and was dropped out of the rotation (albeit by a coach in way over his head).

I said "pretty much locked in".  There is an extreme scenario to stay under but I feel that is unlikely.  It appears that I value Grant more than you do.  He is a versatile, reliable bench player who can give you solid minutes at PF and C.  He was having a really good season for the first half or more and then something happened.  I don't like his yapping at the refs either.  I actually don't think he is going to get such high offers on the market.  We may even get him for the QO. 

Bryant for example, was pretty much useless on 3 teams in a year plus.  I had a lot more interest in him last off season.  For whatever reason, he does not seem to have much.  That isn't to say that there won't be some FA who we would be fine with in place of Grant.  But do you really think that Bryant or Torrey Craig are going to give you valuable minutes in a playoff game, like Grant has shown he can do (and will only get better)?  To me, Bryant would be Muscala or worse.  Richardson, I don't know, I think he would be good if we could get him, but not more so than Grant. 

[Roy H.]

None of us know what kind of offers Grant is going to get but I think it is overly simplistic to say he is an 8 pt / 5 reb guy.  Grant is a decent player with a decent track record, including some big playoff games.  Players like PJ Tucker get paid (perhaps overpaid).  Grant may end up one of those types of players.  Whether it is $8.6M (the QO) or $10M, or $15M, signing Grant is going to put us over the second apron, unless we do some salary mitigation such as trading Brogdon for a pick.

To me, the Porzingis trade which added about $7M, pretty much locked in that we are going to be over the second apron, or so close to it that we can't do anything to improve the team anyway.  That trade counted in 2022-23 season so the new CBA rules don't apply to it.  We could add salary.  I think if anything, the Porzingis trade is an indication that the Celtics have accepted being over the apron and the decision on Grant will depend on what offer they need to match, what other player are available, all the normal things.

It is true that we don't want Grant on a "tough to trade" contract.  I don't know what that threshold is, but I am sure it is part of the calculation

A couple of things:

We're definitely not locked in as being above the second apron.  For instance, we can field this team below that apron:

Timelord / Horford / vet minimum
Porzingis / vet minimum
Tatum / Hauser / Walsh
Brown / White / MLE
Brogdon / Pritchard / Davidson

There wouldn't be a ton of flexibility, but it's doable.  (Under that scenario, we waive Kornet and Champagnie, and don't sign Grant).  Obviously, there's a wide range in free agents.  If the names are Bryant, Craig and Richardson, we're in great shape.  If they're Kornet, Fitts and Stauskas, we may miss Grant.

As for Grant, I do think it's as simple as his production.  He's an 8/5 guy.  His intangibles are that he has a big mouth, is very inconsistent in the playoffs, and was dropped out of the rotation (albeit by a coach in way over his head).

I said "pretty much locked in".  There is an extreme scenario to stay under but I feel that is unlikely.  It appears that I value Grant more than you do.  He is a versatile, reliable bench player who can give you solid minutes at PF and C.  He was having a really good season for the first half or more and then something happened.  I don't like his yapping at the refs either.  I actually don't think he is going to get such high offers on the market.  We may even get him for the QO. 

Bryant for example, was pretty much useless on 3 teams in a year plus.  I had a lot more interest in him last off season.  For whatever reason, he does not seem to have much.  That isn't to say that there won't be some FA who we would be fine with in place of Grant.  But do you really think that Bryant or Torrey Craig are going to give you valuable minutes in a playoff game, like Grant has shown he can do (and will only get better)?  To me, Bryant would be Muscala or worse.  Richardson, I don't know, I think he would be good if we could get him, but not more so than Grant.

Bryant wasn't "pretty useless". 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=willigr01&p1yrfrom=2023&p1yrto=2023&player_id2=bryanth01&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2023

He averaged 10 / 6 / 44.1% 3PT% / .659 eFG% in fewer minutes than Grant.

He didn't play in Denver's playoff run, but it's not like Grant was a big contributor (5 points, 2 rebounds).

If that's the difference between a $15 - $18 million contract, versus $2 million, I'm all in on Bryant.

[Who]

I agree with Thomas Bryant as pretty useless. He had two playoff teams give him a try last year and both agreed he couldn't be trusted in big games / playoffs and either dumped him or sat him.

And for good reason. He can't be trusted in playoff games. He is one of the worst defensive big men in the entire league. He is woeful. He shouldn't be in any playoff hopeful team's rotation. I don't even like him as a 3rd stringer. There are more reliable guys out there who won't shoot you in the foot like T Bryant will.

Fits well under the definition of an "empty stats" player.

To me, Bryant would be Muscala or worse.  Richardson, I don't know,

Worse. Muscala is a much better player. He ain't good on D but he is still far better than T Bryant and Muscala is much more skilled on offense as well. Much better player. A legit end of rotation talent.

[ChillyWilly]

What a waste Thomas Bryant ended up being. He should become a bull fighter instead hes really good at letting things go past him without ever being touched.

[Surferdad]

No problem letting grant walk if he’s not going to be a guy Joe plays. Just get something out of it. Player back in a sign and trade or use of the MLE

I like the idea suggested earlier of not matching an offer in exchange for a couple of 2nd round picks.

[green_bballers13]

None of us know what kind of offers Grant is going to get but I think it is overly simplistic to say he is an 8 pt / 5 reb guy.  Grant is a decent player with a decent track record, including some big playoff games.  Players like PJ Tucker get paid (perhaps overpaid).  Grant may end up one of those types of players.  Whether it is $8.6M (the QO) or $10M, or $15M, signing Grant is going to put us over the second apron, unless we do some salary mitigation such as trading Brogdon for a pick.

To me, the Porzingis trade which added about $7M, pretty much locked in that we are going to be over the second apron, or so close to it that we can't do anything to improve the team anyway.  That trade counted in 2022-23 season so the new CBA rules don't apply to it.  We could add salary.  I think if anything, the Porzingis trade is an indication that the Celtics have accepted being over the apron and the decision on Grant will depend on what offer they need to match, what other player are available, all the normal things.

It is true that we don't want Grant on a "tough to trade" contract.  I don't know what that threshold is, but I am sure it is part of the calculation

A couple of things:

We're definitely not locked in as being above the second apron.  For instance, we can field this team below that apron:

Timelord / Horford / vet minimum
Porzingis / vet minimum
Tatum / Hauser / Walsh
Brown / White / MLE
Brogdon / Pritchard / Davidson

There wouldn't be a ton of flexibility, but it's doable.  (Under that scenario, we waive Kornet and Champagnie, and don't sign Grant).  Obviously, there's a wide range in free agents.  If the names are Bryant, Craig and Richardson, we're in great shape.  If they're Kornet, Fitts and Stauskas, we may miss Grant.

As for Grant, I do think it's as simple as his production.  He's an 8/5 guy.  His intangibles are that he has a big mouth, is very inconsistent in the playoffs, and was dropped out of the rotation (albeit by a coach in way over his head).

I said "pretty much locked in".  There is an extreme scenario to stay under but I feel that is unlikely.  It appears that I value Grant more than you do.  He is a versatile, reliable bench player who can give you solid minutes at PF and C.  He was having a really good season for the first half or more and then something happened.  I don't like his yapping at the refs either.  I actually don't think he is going to get such high offers on the market.  We may even get him for the QO. 

Bryant for example, was pretty much useless on 3 teams in a year plus.  I had a lot more interest in him last off season.  For whatever reason, he does not seem to have much.  That isn't to say that there won't be some FA who we would be fine with in place of Grant.  But do you really think that Bryant or Torrey Craig are going to give you valuable minutes in a playoff game, like Grant has shown he can do (and will only get better)?  To me, Bryant would be Muscala or worse.  Richardson, I don't know, I think he would be good if we could get him, but not more so than Grant.

Bryant wasn't "pretty useless". 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=willigr01&p1yrfrom=2023&p1yrto=2023&player_id2=bryanth01&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2023

He averaged 10 / 6 / 44.1% 3PT% / .659 eFG% in fewer minutes than Grant.

He didn't play in Denver's playoff run, but it's not like Grant was a big contributor (5 points, 2 rebounds).

If that's the difference between a $15 - $18 million contract, versus $2 million, I'm all in on Bryant.

Why didn't Bryant play in Denver's playoff run? My guess is that he wasn't good enough to be on the floor.

[Kernewek]

I'm curious, who are the other 8/5 guys making $15 million per season?  Are those considered good or bad contracts?

Is Torrey Craig looking at a $15m/season deal? Thomas Bryant? Eubanks?

Royce O'Neale is paid less than $10m/season. Larry Nance is on ~$10m/season. Boucher is similar.

These guys are all similar-ish. Between 6-10PPG, 4-6RPG, and varying levels of versatility and defensive capability. None would dream of $15m a season

For what it’s worth, John Hollinger at the Athletic ranks Grant as the 7th best free agent PF, with an expected value of $15.1 million in production next season.  Torrey Craig was the 22nd ranked small forward and worth the minimum salary.  Drew Eubanks was the 9th-ranked center and worth $5 million.

I would think the performance of John Hollinger, NBA front office guy, would invalidate the writing of John Hollinger, basketball writer.

[Who]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanth01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenja01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willigr01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/watanyu01.html

Three of these guys are worth the minimum according to Hollinger; the other is worth $15+ million.

Agreed with T Bryant and JaMychal Green as minimum contract guys. It is important to note though that both of these were worth considerably more when they were coming off their rookie deals. They both got MLE or above type money off their rookie contracts. It wasn't until later on in their careers that their values dropped to a minimum deal after they showed themselves incapable of justifying that bigger contract.

So their examples would be positive for Grant getting a good contract this year coming off his rookie deal as teams are enticed by his talent & youth as they were with T Bryant and JaMychal Green. Then it is up to Grant to show he can live up to that payday or not (as T Bryant and JaMychal Green failed to do).

Watanabe is not a guy I am familiar with. I had him completely wrong in my head. I was thinking of a short PG. [Edit: Looking up B-Ref, I had him confused with Yuta Tabuse from 20yrs ago!]

Watanabe played less than 1,000 minutes. Only 2,300 minutes in five years. Not promising. That does sound like a minimum contract guy just from his (lack of) playing time. Grant played almost as many minutes this season (even when dropped from the rotation late in the season) as Watanabe has in his 5 years in the league. Watanabe barely played his first 2 years so even his last 3 years in the league is comparable to how much Grant played this season (2000 minutes).

[Who]

I'm curious, who are the other 8/5 guys making $15 million per season?  Are those considered good or bad contracts?

Is Torrey Craig looking at a $15m/season deal? Thomas Bryant? Eubanks?

Royce O'Neale is paid less than $10m/season. Larry Nance is on ~$10m/season. Boucher is similar.

These guys are all similar-ish. Between 6-10PPG, 4-6RPG, and varying levels of versatility and defensive capability. None would dream of $15m a season

For what it’s worth, John Hollinger at the Athletic ranks Grant as the 7th best free agent PF, with an expected value of $15.1 million in production next season.  Torrey Craig was the 22nd ranked small forward and worth the minimum salary.  Drew Eubanks was the 9th-ranked center and worth $5 million.

I would be interested to see why Grant is apparently worth so much more than Craig, a near-identical player. The 8 year age gap does not = the difference between a minimum & $15m/season

I am largely in agreement with Hollinger.

I see Grant as worth around that much. I am higher on Craig and value him below the MLE but close to the MLE. However, I believe Hollinger is correct as far as the league valuing Craig closer to the minimum. I have Eubanks as a minimum guy rather than $5mil.


I am curious as to why T Craig is valued so much lower than Grant as well. The age difference is obviously a factor. But both guys are strong bench pieces to serviceable starters. I am surprised Craig gets so little love. I have been surprised for several years that Craig gets so little love. I never understood Malik Beasley getting so much more positive press than T Craig when M Beasley is an inferior player. T Craig constantly seems to flow below the radar.

I was looking at T Craig's stats. A 56% TS% so below average vs 60% for Grant above average. Grant was even at 63% in 2022. So way above average that year. T Craig hardly gets to the foul line with only 1 FT for every 10 FGs which huts his scoring efficiency. Surprising for a solid athlete. Can't say I ever noticed that in games. That is interesting. Grant isn't good at getting FTs either (as you would expect, undersized non-explosive athlete) but he still gets double the FTAs T Craig gets.

I do think Grant's defensive skill-set is more valuable. Hard to find guys who can body up big PFs like Giannis or Durant and still be useful on offense. It is a rarer skill-set. A smaller wing player like T Craig is easier to find.

Still, I like T Craig. He should be earning more than the minimum. He is a steal at the minimum. I think he is fantastic value at the TMLE. A full MLE is a bit high for me given his age. So I'd value him somewhere between the TMLE and the MLE.