The race for the No1 seed

[ozgod]

I put together this table to look at the home stretch for the Cs, Bucks and Sixers (updated as of Sunday night results). Bucks and Sixers have 8 games to go, Cs have 7. The Sixers have the toughest run, they have to play 7 teams in playoff contention (and Dallas is just outside in 11th spot in the West), including the Celtics, Bucks, and Nuggets, along with Atlanta, Miami and Brooklyn. Boston and Milwaukee have a similar strength of schedule remaining, both teams play five teams in playoff contention - the Bucks' toughest opponents are probably the Celtics, Sixers and Grizzlies, while the Cs are the Bucks, Sixers and Atlanta.

EDIT 3/28 - Celtics lose to Washington
EDIT 3/29 - Bucks win against Indiana, Sixers win against Dallas
EDIT 3/30 - Celtics win against Bucks
EDIT 3/31 - Sixers win against Toronto



According to Tankathon the Sixers have the toughest SoS remaining. Milwaukee is 15th and Boston is 16th.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

I think we *should* be safe with at least the 2 seed...I think the Sixers will do well to win at even half of their remaining games. I think we should be good for at least 6 out of 7, with the only one that I consider even money being Milwaukee away. To finish No1 we need to win out all our games, including Milwaukee, and hope that Philly or Memphis do us a favor. Stranger things have happened, but I think the switch in the Celtics' brains has been moved to the "ON" position now 

[droopdog7]

Celtics have some momentum but it’s gonna be tough to catch Mil.  Obviously have to beat them, and pick up another game somewhere else.  I’d give the celts about a 15% chance to do it.  So not zero, but not good.

[radiohead]

You have to look back at those back to back losses to Orlando. I mean if we got one of those, catching the Bucks would be more possible.

[bdm860]

Cleveland should be in this conversation too.  Not that they have a chance for #1, but they have a chance for #3, changing up the projected 2nd round 1/4 and 2/3 matchups.  They're 2 games behind Philly, but lost the tie breaker, so they need 3 more wins than Philly to takeover #3.

Cleveland's remaining schedule (2nd easiest according to Tankathon):

@ATL
NYK
IND
@ORL
@ORL
@CHA

It's definitely possible for them to catch Philly.


Boston, Milwaukee, Philly are all closing out the season playing teams that are fighting for their playoff lives.  Chicago, Atlanta, Toronto are all separated by a half game for spots 8-10, so they should all be playing as hard as possible.  Miami and Brooklyn are tied for the 6th/7th spot, neither wants to get stuck in the play in.  And these teams make up 8 of the 9 final games for BOS/MIL/PHI, all should be playing hard.

Memphis is a wildcard, obviously a good team, but they might have the #2 seed locked up and no motivation to play hard, or maybe they need the win to lock in the #2 seed, or maybe they want to make a statement against a potential Finals contender, or maybe they don't want to show their hand against a potential Finals opponent...

Cleveland can definitely make up 3 games, while any of BOS/MIL/PHI could drop 3.

[angryguy77]

I'm sure all those guys who have numbers in the rafters would've taken a day off after losing the finals the year before......

We're going to be fighting for the 1 seed against a MKE team with the best player on the planet.

People going to be fine if they edge us out by a game?

I wonder if people who were ok with Tatum missing the ORL game still feel that way?

[JohnBoy65]

I'm sure all those guys who have numbers in the rafters would've taken a day off after losing the finals the year before......

We're going to be fighting for the 1 seed against a MKE team with the best player on the planet.

People going to be fine if they edge us out by a game?

I wonder if people who were ok with Tatum missing the ORL game still feel that way?

Yes I still am fine with Tatum missing those games.

[kraidstar]

Cleveland should be in this conversation too.  Not that they have a chance for #1, but they have a chance for #3, changing up the projected 2nd round 1/4 and 2/3 matchups.  They're 2 games behind Philly, but lost the tie breaker, so they need 3 more wins than Philly to takeover #3.

Cleveland's remaining schedule (2nd easiest according to Tankathon):

@ATL
NYK
IND
@ORL
@ORL
@CHA

It's definitely possible for them to catch Philly.


Boston, Milwaukee, Philly are all closing out the season playing teams that are fighting for their playoff lives.  Chicago, Atlanta, Toronto are all separated by a half game for spots 8-10, so they should all be playing as hard as possible.  Miami and Brooklyn are tied for the 6th/7th spot, neither wants to get stuck in the play in.  And these teams make up 8 of the 9 final games for BOS/MIL/PHI, all should be playing hard.

Memphis is a wildcard, obviously a good team, but they might have the #2 seed locked up and no motivation to play hard, or maybe they need the win to lock in the #2 seed, or maybe they want to make a statement against a potential Finals contender, or maybe they don't want to show their hand against a potential Finals opponent...

Cleveland can definitely make up 3 games, while any of BOS/MIL/PHI could drop 3.

Who do you think is a worse 2nd round matchup for Milwaukee? Cleveland or Philly?

[droopdog7]

You have to look back at those back to back losses to Orlando. I mean if we got one of those, catching the Bucks would be more possible.

Every team has bad losses, including Mil.  At the end of the day, team that wins more gets the prize.  I don't get too concerned with the details of how we got to this point.

[SparzWizard]

I'm sure all those guys who have numbers in the rafters would've taken a day off after losing the finals the year before......

We're going to be fighting for the 1 seed against a MKE team with the best player on the planet.

People going to be fine if they edge us out by a game?

I wonder if people who were ok with Tatum missing the ORL game still feel that way?

We shouldn't need Tatum to beat Orlando in the first place, esp if JB is as what he's hyped as. A player who wants to lead the team. The 1b guy being the alpha for that game.

And Orlando is a subpar team. Nevermind them, there were other winnable games this season that the team just didn't cap on.

[Phantom255x]

I think the only chance for Boston to get the 1 seed is actually winning out.

I can definitely see MIL finishing the season 5-2 in their final 7 games (including a loss to Boston), but I highly doubt they go worse than 5-2. If they go 5-2, we need to win out. We could afford a loss to a non-Milwaukee team, but then we need MIL to lose two more games besides this Thursday. That'll be a very tough ask

[mef730]

My prediction: No matter what seed we end up with, we're going to get stuck with Miami in the first round.

Mike

[Vermont Green]

I am not all that worried about the 1 or 2 seed.  Home court against MIL would certainly be nice, it would be an advantage, but not a huge one.  We proved that in the playoffs last season.  And I am not all that worried about who we play to get to the ECF.  There may be an easier or tougher path but with so many permutations, I am not trying to root for one or another.

Take PHI for example.  If Harden is healthy and playing well, I prefer to play CLE.  If Harden is not quite right, maybe CLE is the tougher out.  You just don't know.  Too many variables.  I certainly prefer to be the #1 seed due to home court but I am not that worried that we end up the #2 seed.

Keep in mind also that ideally we stay ahead of Denver.  We are currently exactly 1 game ahead of them.  Denver is 32-6 at home and 19-18 on the road.  A lot has to happen before there is a Denver-Boston finals match up but that is one place where home court is more of an advantage due to the altitude. 

[mef730]

I am not all that worried about the 1 or 2 seed.  Home court against MIL would certainly be nice, it would be an advantage, but not a huge one.  We proved that in the playoffs last season.  And I am not all that worried about who we play to get to the ECF.  There may be an easier or tougher path but with so many permutations, I am not trying to root for one or another.

Take PHI for example.  If Harden is healthy and playing well, I prefer to play CLE.  If Harden is not quite right, maybe CLE is the tougher out.  You just don't know.  Too many variables.  I certainly prefer to be the #1 seed due to home court but I am not that worried that we end up the #2 seed.

Keep in mind also that ideally we stay ahead of Denver.  We are currently exactly 1 game ahead of them.  Denver is 32-6 at home and 19-18 on the road.  A lot has to happen before there is a Denver-Boston finals match up but that is one place where home court is more of an advantage due to the altitude.

TP. Hadn't even thought about the altitude.

Mike

[JohnBoy65]

My prediction: No matter what seed we end up with, we're going to get stuck with Miami in the first round.

Mike

Bill Simmons said on his podcast Sunday that either Miami or Atlanta will be the 6 seed because one of them has to win the division. Is it true that a division winner can't fall below 6? Miami is technically a 7 seed now, but if the above is true it looks like they'll be 6. Which would almost certainly make it much harder to see them in the 1st round.

[Kernewek]

My prediction: No matter what seed we end up with, we're going to get stuck with Miami in the first round.

Mike

Bill Simmons said on his podcast Sunday that either Miami or Atlanta will be the 6 seed because one of them has to win the division. Is it true that a division winner can't fall below 6? Miami is technically a 7 seed now, but if the above is true it looks like they'll be 6. Which would almost certainly make it much harder to see them in the 1st round.

My memory is rusty but winning the division used to give you a top four seed until somewhat recently (2016?). I can't find a rule that says winning your division keeps you out of the play-in, but that seems to be what Simmons is alleging.