Celtics Draft Pick Watch

[Roy H.]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

[tonydelk]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

Wouldn't it be better if Portland just wins the lottery and picks 1?  LOL.  It can happen right.

[Roy H.]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

Wouldn't it be better if Portland just wins the lottery and picks 1?  LOL.  It can happen right.

It can, but the lottery only affects the first round.  The second round goes by order of regular season finish.

[Vermont Green]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

As to ties and second round picks, I saw this on Tankathon:

12.   Second round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks

Not sure how this works exactly as teams don't always have first round picks but in this case, the order of first round picks for SAS and HOU would be by the lottery.  So HOU winning the lottery could actually mean SAS gets the second round tie break (but I am not sure).

[Roy H.]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

As to ties and second round picks, I saw this on Tankathon:

12.   Second round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks

Not sure how this works exactly as teams don't always have first round picks but in this case, the order of first round picks for SAS and HOU would be by the lottery.  So HOU winning the lottery could actually mean SAS gets the second round tie break (but I am not sure).

Interesting.  I had interpreted it as whoever wins the pre-lottery coin flip between tied teams then gets the lesser pick in the second round.

So, if SAS/HOU are tied, there will be a coin flip to determine de facto lottery position (with one of the teams potentially getting one more ball.)  That position would be reversed in the second round.

In other words, if HOU / SAS tie for second worst, there's a coin flip.  If Houston wins the presumptive pre-lottery 2nd pick (and SAS gets 3rd), then that's reversed in round two (i.e., SAS picks at #32, Houston picks at #33).  My understanding was that the lottery results themselves didn't matter.

[Vermont Green]

In terms of HOU, and potentially conveyance of their 2nd round pick to us, they are currently 1.5 games behind SAS.  If they can pass SAS, we get their pick (#33):

HOU:  DET, LAL, DEN, @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  @GSW, @SAC, @PHO, POR, MIN, @DAL

It is not unrealistic to think HOU could go 3-2 with wins against DET, CHA, and WAS (if they actually try).  The only "expected" win for SAS would be POR, the way that POR is playing lately.  That would allow HOU to move ahead of SAS and we would get pick #33. 

As for POR, they are likely going to stay in the range of #35-#37, probably #35 most likely.  Other than the game @SAS, their schedule is all playoff or play-in teams that will have something to play for.  POR could well lose-out.

Yeah, let's hope Houston goes on a hot streak.  I'll settle for a tie and a coin flip.

As to ties and second round picks, I saw this on Tankathon:

12.   Second round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks

Not sure how this works exactly as teams don't always have first round picks but in this case, the order of first round picks for SAS and HOU would be by the lottery.  So HOU winning the lottery could actually mean SAS gets the second round tie break (but I am not sure).

Interesting.  I had interpreted it as whoever wins the pre-lottery coin flip between tied teams then gets the lesser pick in the second round.

So, if SAS/HOU are tied, there will be a coin flip to determine de facto lottery position (with one of the teams potentially getting one more ball.)  That position would be reversed in the second round.

In other words, if HOU / SAS tie for second worst, there's a coin flip.  If Houston wins the presumptive pre-lottery 2nd pick (and SAS gets 3rd), then that's reversed in round two (i.e., SAS picks at #32, Houston picks at #33).  My understanding was that the lottery results themselves didn't matter.

You are probably right.  In the case of second worst and third worst, the number of lottery chances is the same (14%) but who is second worst and who is third worst would impact where they get slotted if they both miss the first 4 picks.  So they will flip a coin I guess to determine that for the first round lottery.

Of course, you could win the coin flip but lose the lottery and end up with a lesser pick in both, if it was based purely on the coin flip and not on the actual pick you end up with.  The Tankathon note does say that the second round order is in reverse order of the first round picks.  Picks to me implies where you pick post lottery.  But I don't know for sure.

[Vermont Green]

Games to watch tonight that impact our second-rounder:

DET @ HOU
SAS @ GSW

You would expect HOU to win at home against DET (but you never know) and SAS to lose to GSW and if that happens, SAS lead on HOU will shrink to 0.5 games.

SAC @ POR
ORL @ WAS
OKC @ IND

SAC should beat POR, that is the most direct impact.  ORL and IND losing winning helps also.  WAS is probably far enough ahead of POR that it doesn't matter what they do.

[Celtics2021]

Games to watch tonight that impact our second-rounder:

DET @ HOU
SAS @ GSW

You would expect HOU to win at home against DET (but you never know) and SAS to lose to GSW and if that happens, SAS lead on HOU will shrink to 0.5 games.

SAC @ POR
ORL @ WAS
OKC @ IND

SAC should beat POR, that is the most direct impact.  ORL and IND losing helps also.  WAS is probably far enough ahead of POR that it doesn't matter what they do.

I assume you mean ORL and IND winning helps, not losing.

[Vermont Green]

Games to watch tonight that impact our second-rounder:

DET @ HOU
SAS @ GSW

You would expect HOU to win at home against DET (but you never know) and SAS to lose to GSW and if that happens, SAS lead on HOU will shrink to 0.5 games.

SAC @ POR
ORL @ WAS
OKC @ IND

SAC should beat POR, that is the most direct impact.  ORL and IND losing helps also.  WAS is probably far enough ahead of POR that it doesn't matter what they do.

I assume you mean ORL and IND winning helps, not losing.

Yes, POR losing and ORL and IND winning is what we want.  Thanks for the catch.

[Vermont Green]

Games to watch tonight that impact our second-rounder:

DET @ HOU
SAS @ GSW

You would expect HOU to win at home against DET (but you never know) and SAS to lose to GSW and if that happens, SAS lead on HOU will shrink to 0.5 games.

SAC @ POR
ORL @ WAS
OKC @ IND

SAC should beat POR, that is the most direct impact.  ORL and IND losing winning helps also.  WAS is probably far enough ahead of POR that it doesn't matter what they do.

All these games went as hoped.  POR is now alone for Pick #35, with ORL 1 full game ahead.  HOU is now only 0.5 games behind SAS to move up to Pick #33.

[Vermont Green]

Wow, the Spurs beat the Kings last night, while Rockets lose to Lakers.  Hurts our chances for pick #33 (Spurs now with 1.5 gm lead)

And POR beat MIN.  Still holding the position for pick #35, but things are a little tighter.

[Vermont Green]

Remaining games:

HOU:  @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  POR, MIN, @DAL

First SAS beats SAC and then HOU beats DEN.  As it stands, HOU is a half game back.  Someone mentioned this in another thread that with SAS playing POR, it impacts both our potential picks.  I say go all in, hope for a POR win so that HOU has a better chance to catch SAS and we have a better chance at pick #33.  That may help POR move up from pick #35 but it really is not that much different in any case.  But definitely more fun if we end up with pick #33.

POR may well end up in a 3 way or even 4 way tie with ORL, WAS, and IND.  All these teams could lose out.  It might be more probable that HOU ends up with pick #33 than POR is able to hold on to pick #35.

[Roy H.]

Remaining games:

HOU:  @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  POR, MIN, @DAL

First SAS beats SAC and then HOU beats DEN.  As it stands, HOU is a half game back.  Someone mentioned this in another thread that with SAS playing POR, it impacts both our potential picks.  I say go all in, hope for a POR win so that HOU has a better chance to catch SAS and we have a better chance at pick #33.  That may help POR move up from pick #35 but it really is not that much different in any case.  But definitely more fun if we end up with pick #33.

POR may well end up in a 3 way or even 4 way tie with ORL, WAS, and IND.  All these teams could lose out.  It might be more probable that HOU ends up with pick #33 than POR is able to hold on to pick #35.

Agreed.  Hopefully SAS loses out, and HOU beats CHA or WAS.

[Vermont Green]

POR blows a lead and loses to SAS.  Their remaining games are @LAC and GSW.  You would think that is 2 losses, and them staying in the pick 35 slot but who knows with all the resting going on.

HOU is now one full game behind SAS.  Remaining games are:

HOU:  @CHA, @WAS
SAS:  MIN, @DAL

HOU still could move up or at least tie.

[libermaniac]

Houston wins! If the Spurs lose we get 33, and if they win it will it be a coin flip?