I guess we aren't better without Jaylen!

[Moranis]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

It's interesting, though, because you've created this narrative where JT contributes to winning, but JB doesn't (or only marginally does so).  Yet, look at the lineup data:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2023

Of Jaylen's ten most common lineups, he's sharing the floor with Tatum.  In the one that he doesn't, the Celts are +18.3 per 100 possessions.  So, for those most common lineups, JB's +/- is the same as Tatum's, or in the one case, extremely good.

We have an incomplete data set.  What lineups have JB and don't have JT that are less successful?

It isn't a narrative.  It is a fact.

No, it’s an argument you’ve advanced based upon flawed use of a single statistic.

there is nothing flawed in my use of that stat.  I use it exactly as it is intended to be used. 

[The Oracle]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

[liam]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

[celticsclay]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

It's interesting, though, because you've created this narrative where JT contributes to winning, but JB doesn't (or only marginally does so).  Yet, look at the lineup data:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2023

Of Jaylen's ten most common lineups, he's sharing the floor with Tatum.  In the one that he doesn't, the Celts are +18.3 per 100 possessions.  So, for those most common lineups, JB's +/- is the same as Tatum's, or in the one case, extremely good.

We have an incomplete data set.  What lineups have JB and don't have JT that are less successful?

It isn't a narrative.  It is a fact.

No, it’s an argument you’ve advanced based upon flawed use of a single statistic.

I agree with Roy on this one. It’s a flawed use of a stat to advance a narrative that has an incredible amount of statistical noise.

[celticsclay]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Really great post here pointing out some of the many flaws in the use of on off. Tommy point

[Moranis]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all. 

[celticsclay]

If there is an afterlife the bad version of it definitely includes someone just repeating a flawed argument for eternity.

[Moranis]

I guess when Brown leaves, just like with Irving, people will just ignore how right I was and act like I'm the idiot. 

[Roy H.]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

I haven't examined all five years, but this year you are seemingly intentionally ignoring the six games that JB sat out against Detroit and Charlotte.  Leaving out this context both skews the "our record is fantastic without JB" argument and is a very large reason why JB's on-court / off-court numbers are wonky compared to guys who played against those cupcakes.

[Roy H.]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

[Moranis]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

[Roy H.]

On/Off differential shouldn't be used to rate a given players worth to the team without a ton of context being considered as well.  Tatum is most often pulled near the 6 minute mark of the 1st quarter and then comes back to play with the bench a few minutes later.  The players off the C's bench get a tremendous boost from this and their numbers would likely not be anywhere near what they are without this strategy being deployed.  This same strategy is used by many other teams with star players such as Tatum.  Utah is another example with Markkanen used similarly, which bolsters their bench greatly. 

Jaylen largely plays starter minutes, 1st 9 minutes of the 1st and last 9 of the 2nd quarter.  Jaylen rarely gets opportunities against the weakest lineups other teams deploy.  If you reverse Tatum and Jaylen's usage and brought Brown back with the bench or if you played them both together starter minutes you would see completely different On/Off differentials.

On/Off differential like all basketball statistics must be viewed with a ton of context or you can very easily be led astray.  A players given role, the players they play with, a players quality of replacement when they sit and many other factors contribute to their success or failure on the floor.  Brown is not Tatum and cannot carry the team in the way he does, just as Kyrie was to Lebron, Pippen was to Jordan etc..  He shouldn't be slighted because he cannot, very few players could fill those shoes and show the same level of success. 

Jaylen has played 545 minutes this year so far without his star teammate on the floor with him, in those minutes the C's are +21.  The entire team dynamic changes for a few short minutes when Tatum sits, usually against opposing starters, and the C's probably wouldn't be winning those minutes without Brown.

Good points. There really is no better way to gauge performance than watching the games.

Sure and Boston's team record isn't much different over the last 5 years in the games Brown doesn't play at all.

We've addressed this year's record, with the 6-0 record without JB when we play the worst teams in the league.

Let's look at the last three seasons before that.

2020:  10-5 (six games against opponents with below .350 winning percentage)

2021: 6-8; 1-4 in playoffs

2022: 8-8

So, over that three year span, without considering strength of opponents, we went 25-25 without JB.

Is that your argument?  That JB doesn't contribute to winning, because his team managed to go .500 without him in years in which we went to the playoffs, including the Finals and ECF?

How about context of last year, Brown missed 14 of the first 27 games, Boston was 7-7 without him (10 of which were on the road and included a 5-game west trip) and 6-7 with him?  Or does only the context you find appropriate count?

And of those 7 games we won without JB, 5 of them were against non-playoff teams, including the illustrious Rockets, Thunder, Trailblazers and Lakers (all bottom-8 teams).

[liam]

I think we are better with Jaylen. I know I'm going out on a limb but I firmly believe it. 

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Moranis is doubling and tripling down on yet another bad take. I’m guessing he won’t come back and say he was wrong, like when he said the Pats were a 6 win team “at best”.

Stay classy, Moranis!

[celticsclay]

Moranis is doubling and tripling down on yet another bad take. I’m guessing he won’t come back and say he was wrong, like when he said the Pats were a 6 win team “at best”.

Stay classy, Moranis!

This. I don’t want to make it personal at all, so I’ll just say this in generalities. The ability to be humble and admit when you had something wrong is a huge part of what makes this forum enjoyable for most people. Nobody likes doing it, but you if you make 15 posts arguing a topic and are objectively wrong on something, it shows character to come on and say Tommy points all around you guys had this one right. The patriots thread this did not happen with some despite two months of doubling down on something that is black and white in terms of projecting a win total. You can’t go up to the Vegas window and say pay me cause I still think the game should have gone this way.