I guess we aren't better without Jaylen!

[slamtheking]

I definitely wouldn't say the Cs lost last night because Jaylen was out. Presumably his presence would've helped, but they still could've won—and won easily—had they not gone stone-cold from long range.

or had some other game plan for when 3 pointers aren't falling.  perhaps something crazy like driving into the paint for layups or a pass to someone who can take an easier 2 pointer that's more likely to be made. 

doesn't take a genius to understand a made 2-pointer counts for more than a missed 3-pointer

I agree. Having a backup plan is always a good idea.

For what it’s worth, the Celtics outscored the Knicks in the paint, 52-42 last night.  The game was mostly decided at the foul line, with the Celtics getting called for double the fouls and the Knicks taking 20 more free throws.

if the C's aren't called for those fouls (or in theory, not committing them), Knicks make more baskets in the paint thus narrowing that gap.

also, the game wasn't decided at the line in that sense.  it would have been had the C's driven into the paint more to either score from in the lane or pass to an open man that was inside the 3-point line instead of bricking away from 3.  more drives to the paint should have resulted in more foul calls against the Knicks.

[Celtics2021]

I definitely wouldn't say the Cs lost last night because Jaylen was out. Presumably his presence would've helped, but they still could've won—and won easily—had they not gone stone-cold from long range.

or had some other game plan for when 3 pointers aren't falling.  perhaps something crazy like driving into the paint for layups or a pass to someone who can take an easier 2 pointer that's more likely to be made. 

doesn't take a genius to understand a made 2-pointer counts for more than a missed 3-pointer

I agree. Having a backup plan is always a good idea.

For what it’s worth, the Celtics outscored the Knicks in the paint, 52-42 last night.  The game was mostly decided at the foul line, with the Celtics getting called for double the fouls and the Knicks taking 20 more free throws.

if the C's aren't called for those fouls (or in theory, not committing them), Knicks make more baskets in the paint thus narrowing that gap.

also, the game wasn't decided at the line in that sense.  it would have been had the C's driven into the paint more to either score from in the lane or pass to an open man that was inside the 3-point line instead of bricking away from 3.  more drives to the paint should have resulted in more foul calls against the Knicks.

Again, the C’s were in the paint plenty, as shown by the point differential above.  They took 27 shots in the restricted area and 36 in the paint, compared to 27 and 37 for the Knicks.  The Knicks just got calls in those areas that the Celtics didn’t — both on some clean blocks by the C’s that were called as fouls, as well as some pretty bad whistle swallowing.  Maybe the Knicks were a little more aggressive, but they weren’t double-the-free-throws more aggressive.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I definitely wouldn't say the Cs lost last night because Jaylen was out. Presumably his presence would've helped, but they still could've won—and won easily—had they not gone stone-cold from long range.

or had some other game plan for when 3 pointers aren't falling.  perhaps something crazy like driving into the paint for layups or a pass to someone who can take an easier 2 pointer that's more likely to be made. 

doesn't take a genius to understand a made 2-pointer counts for more than a missed 3-pointer

I agree. Having a backup plan is always a good idea.

For what it’s worth, the Celtics outscored the Knicks in the paint, 52-42 last night.  The game was mostly decided at the foul line, with the Celtics getting called for double the fouls and the Knicks taking 20 more free throws.

Yeah, that makes a difference, for sure.

[liam]

I guess we'll see tonight if we are better with Jaylen. Go Celtics!

[Phantom255x]

Bucks are 7-5 without Giannis this season AND there's two other games where he left in the 1st quarter to injury and his team still won those (so you could argue it's really 9-5).

Lets exaggerate that!

[liam]

Bucks are 7-5 without Giannis this season AND there's two other games where he left in the 1st quarter to injury and his team still won those (so you could argue it's really 9-5).

Lets exaggerate that!

Bucks are better without Giannis for sure! 

[Moranis]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

[Roy H.]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

[Moranis]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

[Roy H.]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

It's interesting, though, because you've created this narrative where JT contributes to winning, but JB doesn't (or only marginally does so).  Yet, look at the lineup data:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2023

Of Jaylen's ten most common lineups, he's sharing the floor with Tatum.  In the one that he doesn't, the Celts are +18.3 per 100 possessions.  So, for those most common lineups, JB's +/- is the same as Tatum's, or in the one case, extremely good.

We have an incomplete data set.  What lineups have JB and don't have JT that are less successful?

[Kernewek]

I am 100% on the side of keep Jaylen if he wants to be here. Lock him up at whatever number he'd accept to stay with Tatum. There is nothing left for them to prove that they are a successful pairing, and one that can lead a team to a championship.

But lets not misrepresent the other side.

It's not a question of does a Tatum lead team play better without Jaylen on the court but rather would there be another player or players that could would work better with Tatum for Jaylen's trade value and salary slot. DeArron Fox, Trae Young, Karl Anthony Towns, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zion Williamson, maybe even Joel Embiid if Harden leaves and he forces his way out? The most interesting one in recent memory was Kevin Durant but now that's over. Are there players that could either be acquired for Jaylen in a trade that would be a better fit for a Jayson Tatum lead team.

Again, to me the answer is JKJB, but it's not like we'd be losing him for nothing if the team chose to break them up.

Why even bother with a reasonable take like this one, though?

[Roy H.]

I am 100% on the side of keep Jaylen if he wants to be here. Lock him up at whatever number he'd accept to stay with Tatum. There is nothing left for them to prove that they are a successful pairing, and one that can lead a team to a championship.

But lets not misrepresent the other side.

It's not a question of does a Tatum lead team play better without Jaylen on the court but rather would there be another player or players that could would work better with Tatum for Jaylen's trade value and salary slot. DeArron Fox, Trae Young, Karl Anthony Towns, Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zion Williamson, maybe even Joel Embiid if Harden leaves and he forces his way out? The most interesting one in recent memory was Kevin Durant but now that's over. Are there players that could either be acquired for Jaylen in a trade that would be a better fit for a Jayson Tatum lead team.

Again, to me the answer is JKJB, but it's not like we'd be losing him for nothing if the team chose to break them up.

Why even bother with a reasonable take like this one, though?

Ha.  Time will tell if it's a reasonable take, though.  First, there's the presumption that it would be the team choosing the breaking up.  Second, there's the presumption that teams don't lose star players without some compensation in return.  As we've seen in recent years, neither of those things are a safe presumption.

[Moranis]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

It's interesting, though, because you've created this narrative where JT contributes to winning, but JB doesn't (or only marginally does so).  Yet, look at the lineup data:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2023

Of Jaylen's ten most common lineups, he's sharing the floor with Tatum.  In the one that he doesn't, the Celts are +18.3 per 100 possessions.  So, for those most common lineups, JB's +/- is the same as Tatum's, or in the one case, extremely good.

We have an incomplete data set.  What lineups have JB and don't have JT that are less successful?

It isn't a narrative.  It is a fact. 

[Roy H.]

If Giannis had a negative on/off differential per 100 possessions then sure I'd listen to arguments on that, but of course Giannis doesn't have a negative on/off differential, in fact it isn't close to negative at +7.0.  Brown's is -2.7.  In other words, Boston is better by 2.7 points per 100 possessions when Brown is on the bench.  He also has the lowest +- per 100 of the top 7 when he is in the game at +4.8 (behind Smart, White, Tatum, Grant, Al, and Rob - Brogdon is the only consistent regular worse than Brown).  There is years of evidence of this.  It isn't new.

These stats have as much to do with what teammates you're playing with, and what games you play or miss.

For instance, Jaylen's on / off differential improved after the Knicks loss because he didn't play, correct?

Just like it got worse in the wins we had over Charlotte (x4) and Detroit (x2).  I can't imagine that the team's +113 in those six games doesn't have a significant impact regarding on/off.

He's been negative or barely positive the entire year (including the 16-4 start in the 1st 20 games when he missed just 1 9 point win).  Just as he has been pretty much every year since Tatum joined the team, except basically the few month stretch to end last year and Tatum's rookie year.  There is literally 5 years of evidence of this, but because I'm the one saying it, it just gets disregarded as hater nonsense (of course when I said the same thing about Kyrie, I turned out to be right about that as well).  There is enough of a sample size now it just can't be thrown out for not being big enough.  The team plays about the same over the entirety of Brown's career, whether he is in the game or on the bench, both in games and games he has missed entirely.  That is quite simply a fact.

It's interesting, though, because you've created this narrative where JT contributes to winning, but JB doesn't (or only marginally does so).  Yet, look at the lineup data:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2023

Of Jaylen's ten most common lineups, he's sharing the floor with Tatum.  In the one that he doesn't, the Celts are +18.3 per 100 possessions.  So, for those most common lineups, JB's +/- is the same as Tatum's, or in the one case, extremely good.

We have an incomplete data set.  What lineups have JB and don't have JT that are less successful?

It isn't a narrative.  It is a fact.

No, it’s an argument you’ve advanced based upon flawed use of a single statistic.

[liam]

Jaylen is back!