Let's Talk About Tatum

[Atzar]

I've grown increasingly concerned about Tatum's inability to generate efficient offense against playoff-caliber opposition this season.  Going back a few months, his shooting from the field against playoff teams looks like this:

NYK 6-18
PHI 7-17
MEM 3-16
PHI 5-15
PHX 3-15
BKN 12-19
NYK 12-26
MIA 9-18
GSW 9-27
BKN 7-22
NOP 10-22
DAL 8-22
DEN 7-16
LAC 10-26
MIL 14-22
MIN 10-22
LAC 7-20
GSW 6-21   

I chose to stop there, but the beginning of the season steps to the same rhythm.  *Sidenote:  I acknowledge that I'm leaving out some context, and you'll have to accept my apologies for that.  I'd like to include scoring totals, turnovers, TS% etc but I don't know how to use the forum's 'insert table' function and I was afraid of creating an unreadable mess otherwise.  So I kept it simple.

Most great players pad stats against the Houstons and Charlottes of the league and perform more modestly against quality competition.  That's not unusual.  But I feel that Tatum's struggles are significant enough to deserve mention.  To his credit, he's good enough at the other aspects of the game that he typically helps us win no matter how he shoots.  And our depth (and Jaylen) can often keep us in games against good teams even when Tatum is throwing bricks.  But I do think we need to get him unstuck as a scorer against good defenses.  Whether it's an adjustment that we need to make as a team or that he needs to make personally (or both), I don't know. 

Thoughts?

[Roy H.]

Here are his splits, including by opponent:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/splits/2023

[Moranis]

Here are his splits, including by opponent:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/splits/2023

There are just some teams that have the personnel to match up better against him.  Atlanta is his lowest scoring average while Milwaukee is his highest.  Those were both just 1 game, but I think it highlights just fine that he doesn't just perform against the bad teams. 

I keep pointing this out, his on/off differential per 100 possessions is +8.4, White is +10.5 and the next highest player on the team is Rob at +4.2.  Al is +1.9, Hauser is +0.5 and Kornet is +0.3 (the latter two both play most of their minutes with Tatum and White).  Everyone else is in the negative. 

Tatum does just fine, if there is an issue with the team, it is when Tatum isn't on the floor.

[slamtheking]

Here are his splits, including by opponent:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/splits/2023

There are just some teams that have the personnel to match up better against him.  Atlanta is his lowest scoring average while Milwaukee is his highest.  Those were both just 1 game, but I think it highlights just fine that he doesn't just perform against the bad teams. 

I keep pointing this out, his on/off differential per 100 possessions is +8.4, White is +10.5 and the next highest player on the team is Rob at +4.2.  Al is +1.9, Hauser is +0.5 and Kornet is +0.3 (the latter two both play most of their minutes with Tatum and White).  Everyone else is in the negative. 

Tatum does just fine, if there is an issue with the team, it is when Tatum isn't on the floor.

you must have missed last night's game then

[Moranis]

Here are his splits, including by opponent:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/splits/2023

There are just some teams that have the personnel to match up better against him.  Atlanta is his lowest scoring average while Milwaukee is his highest.  Those were both just 1 game, but I think it highlights just fine that he doesn't just perform against the bad teams. 

I keep pointing this out, his on/off differential per 100 possessions is +8.4, White is +10.5 and the next highest player on the team is Rob at +4.2.  Al is +1.9, Hauser is +0.5 and Kornet is +0.3 (the latter two both play most of their minutes with Tatum and White).  Everyone else is in the negative. 

Tatum does just fine, if there is an issue with the team, it is when Tatum isn't on the floor.

you must have missed last night's game then

ah the good old 1 game analysis.  That is helpful. 

[Roy H.]

I wonder how much the wrist has bothered Tatum.  He's shooting a career low in 3PT%, although it's very similar to last year's mark.

With a team like ours that is very good at 3PT shooting overall, is Tatum's shot selection an issue?  Is he taking too many 3PTs?  If he were more selective, would the team be better or worse?  (The same concerns apply to JB, who is also shooting a career low from 3PT).

That said, even a mediocre 35% from 3PT roughly equates to 52.5% 2PT shooting (albeit with a lesser chance at FTs).

[tazzmaniac]

I wonder how much the wrist has bothered Tatum.  He's shooting a career low in 3PT%, although it's very similar to last year's mark.

With a team like ours that is very good at 3PT shooting overall, is Tatum's shot selection an issue?  Is he taking too many 3PTs?  If he were more selective, would the team be better or worse?  (The same concerns apply to JB, who is also shooting a career low from 3PT).

That said, even a mediocre 35% from 3PT roughly equates to 52.5% 2PT shooting (albeit with a lesser chance at FTs).

Doubt it about the wrist.  There is a negligible difference in 3PT% and his 2PT% is at its highest (54.4 versus 52.4).  His FT% is 2nd highest. 

[angryguy77]

I don't buy the fatigue thing. Just had a vacation. He's 24 and supposedly eating healthier than ever.

Maybe it's an injury, or maybe he's not adjusting well enough to the focus other teams have on him now. Right now, he's a streak player that looks like he has a bit of an entitlement problem.

He has to stop whining and letting the officials take him mentally out of the game. He has such a good game when he's going to the hoop, but he doesn't use it enough.

However, none of this will matter if this team doesn't learn to win in other ways besides shooting 3's.

[Vermont Green]

I wonder how much the wrist has bothered Tatum.  He's shooting a career low in 3PT%, although it's very similar to last year's mark.

With a team like ours that is very good at 3PT shooting overall, is Tatum's shot selection an issue?  Is he taking too many 3PTs?  If he were more selective, would the team be better or worse?  (The same concerns apply to JB, who is also shooting a career low from 3PT).

That said, even a mediocre 35% from 3PT roughly equates to 52.5% 2PT shooting (albeit with a lesser chance at FTs).

I don't think Tatum is in any singular way, the problem or the main problem.  Our whole offense gets bogged down at times.  Tatum's numbers are likely down some lately but RWill is not playing well, Horford hasn't been consistent, and Smart lately, looks like a player who came back too early from injury.  Plus I don't think the schemes are being executed overall as well (coaching).

Your point about the 3-point attempts though is a good one and something I want to add on to.  I don't know what the foul percentage is for 3-pt shots vs. general 2-pt shots but clearly, you are going to get fouled more if you take it to the hoop.  Kind of the difference between eFG% and TS%.  And it is not just that, more fouls helps get you in the penalty quicker (leading to even more FTAs) and may get some players in foul trouble (force the opponent to take a player out).

The other thing with 3-pt shots is the long rebounds.  The other team is kind of off and running many times off missed 3s more so than missed 2s.  Again, I don't have exact stats but I bet the opposing teams scoring percentage after a missed 3 is higher than after a missed 2 (and there is a much higher percentage of misses with 3s).

So, as you suggest, there is more nuance to this than just the simple arithmetic equivalent that 33% from 3 is the same as 50% from 2.

[keevsnick]

I wonder how much the wrist has bothered Tatum.  He's shooting a career low in 3PT%, although it's very similar to last year's mark.

With a team like ours that is very good at 3PT shooting overall, is Tatum's shot selection an issue?  Is he taking too many 3PTs?  If he were more selective, would the team be better or worse?  (The same concerns apply to JB, who is also shooting a career low from 3PT).

That said, even a mediocre 35% from 3PT roughly equates to 52.5% 2PT shooting (albeit with a lesser chance at FTs).

The thing about Tatum the last 2 years has been the relatively huge difference in his Catch and Shoot and Off the Dribble three point percentages. This year he's shooting 40.9% on C&S threes and 28.8% on Pull Up threes (NBA.com). He's taking a relatively similar number of attempts (254 C&S vs 274 Pull UP).

If his numbers were being hampered by a wrist issue I don't think I'd expect there to be such a large difference between how he shoots when stationary and how he shoots on pull ups. No, his issue is he takes a lot of diffuclt shots (step backs, side steps, off the dribble ect) and doesn't hit them like he sued to (40% back in 19-20).

 

[LilRip]

If there’s something I’m not worried about, it’s Tatum’s scoring (or Brown for that matter).

I’m more concerned about Rob’s explosiveness, if White can sustain his scoring, and the team’s overall energy levels. Some nights, you just know they don’t have it. And against playoff teams , you can’t just “storm back” at will.

[keevsnick]

Anyway Tatum has certainly seemed a bit off recently, below 20 points in 4 of his last 7 games. The fifth game was the IND game where he scored a lot but wasn't particular good either. Prior to that he scored 20+ in 25 consecutive games.

I'm not really all that worried about it. If there was something actually wrong with him I have to think he wouldn't have played in the ASG. It seems most likely this is just an off stretch, it happens to the best players.

[slamtheking]

Here are his splits, including by opponent:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/splits/2023

There are just some teams that have the personnel to match up better against him.  Atlanta is his lowest scoring average while Milwaukee is his highest.  Those were both just 1 game, but I think it highlights just fine that he doesn't just perform against the bad teams. 

I keep pointing this out, his on/off differential per 100 possessions is +8.4, White is +10.5 and the next highest player on the team is Rob at +4.2.  Al is +1.9, Hauser is +0.5 and Kornet is +0.3 (the latter two both play most of their minutes with Tatum and White).  Everyone else is in the negative. 

Tatum does just fine, if there is an issue with the team, it is when Tatum isn't on the floor.

you must have missed last night's game then

ah the good old 1 game analysis.  That is helpful.

glad I could help you out. 

[Csfan1984]

It's a long season. Also refs still get in the guys head. We just saw Jokic have a bad game then bounce back so all players can have off nights be it MVPs.

[bdm860]

One positive though, when Tatum has a low scoring night, he usually has a higher than average assist night.  Plus his other major counting stats don't drop either.





While the increase in assists doesn't offset his drop in scoring, it's good that he's not useless out there when things aren't going his way.  Same can't always be said for other stars across the league.