Celtics Undervaluing Grant?

[sgrogan]

Hypothetical:

If you're a contender and need a PF, do you prefer Horford or Grant at $15 million+ per year?  Obviously, Horford would be a shorter contract, but for filling cap space in the short-term who does a team offer?

neither, though for a year, Horford would make most sense.

Also, what do people see Horford getting on his next contract?

It's really hard to say.  The full MLE is around $11 million, right?  Do any contenders have more than that to offer?  Is Memphis still in a position to create space?

I'd say $11 million to $15 million.  I'd offer him 3 years, $36 million, with the final year partially guaranteed.

Neither isn't an option for the Celtics, is it?
The team has limited assets to acquire or even maintain talent.

As a package deal;
Horford 3yrs/$39M on a descending contract, 3rd yr is guaranteed at 50%.
G. Williams 4yrs/$64M on an an ascending contract, 4th yr is player option.

If you let them go, you are left with the TP-MLE($7M), a late 1st rd. pick($2.5M) and a Vet-min($2M) to replace them.

[Roy H.]

Hypothetical:

If you're a contender and need a PF, do you prefer Horford or Grant at $15 million+ per year?  Obviously, Horford would be a shorter contract, but for filling cap space in the short-term who does a team offer?

neither, though for a year, Horford would make most sense.

Also, what do people see Horford getting on his next contract?

It's really hard to say.  The full MLE is around $11 million, right?  Do any contenders have more than that to offer?  Is Memphis still in a position to create space?

I'd say $11 million to $15 million.  I'd offer him 3 years, $36 million, with the final year partially guaranteed.

Neither isn't an option for the Celtics, is it?
The team has limited assets to acquire or even maintain talent.

As a package deal;
Horford 3yrs/$39M on a descending contract, 3rd yr is guaranteed at 50%.
G. Williams 4yrs/$64M on an an ascending contract, 4th yr is player option.

If you let them go, you are left with the TP-MLE($7M), a late 1st rd. pick($2.5M) and a Vet-min($2M) to replace them.

I like your figures.  As nick said, so long as we're reasonably close to paying them a combined $31 million next season (the same amount as this year), the payment should be sustainable.

[sgrogan]

Hypothetical:

If you're a contender and need a PF, do you prefer Horford or Grant at $15 million+ per year?  Obviously, Horford would be a shorter contract, but for filling cap space in the short-term who does a team offer?

neither, though for a year, Horford would make most sense.

Also, what do people see Horford getting on his next contract?

It's really hard to say.  The full MLE is around $11 million, right?  Do any contenders have more than that to offer?  Is Memphis still in a position to create space?

I'd say $11 million to $15 million.  I'd offer him 3 years, $36 million, with the final year partially guaranteed.

Neither isn't an option for the Celtics, is it?
The team has limited assets to acquire or even maintain talent.

As a package deal;
Horford 3yrs/$39M on a descending contract, 3rd yr is guaranteed at 50%.
G. Williams 4yrs/$64M on an an ascending contract, 4th yr is player option.

If you let them go, you are left with the TP-MLE($7M), a late 1st rd. pick($2.5M) and a Vet-min($2M) to replace them.

I like your figures.  As nick said, so long as we're reasonably close to paying them a combined $31 million next season (the same amount as this year), the payment should be sustainable.

What would a worst case scenario be?
Al 4/60 fully guaranteed
Grant 4/80, with last yr player option?

The Celtics have the market working for them, but they don't have any easy way to replace either.

[nickagneta]

Hypothetical:

If you're a contender and need a PF, do you prefer Horford or Grant at $15 million+ per year?  Obviously, Horford would be a shorter contract, but for filling cap space in the short-term who does a team offer?

neither, though for a year, Horford would make most sense.

Also, what do people see Horford getting on his next contract?

It's really hard to say.  The full MLE is around $11 million, right?  Do any contenders have more than that to offer?  Is Memphis still in a position to create space?

I'd say $11 million to $15 million.  I'd offer him 3 years, $36 million, with the final year partially guaranteed.

Neither isn't an option for the Celtics, is it?
The team has limited assets to acquire or even maintain talent.

As a package deal;
Horford 3yrs/$39M on a descending contract, 3rd yr is guaranteed at 50%.
G. Williams 4yrs/$64M on an an ascending contract, 4th yr is player option.

If you let them go, you are left with the TP-MLE($7M), a late 1st rd. pick($2.5M) and a Vet-min($2M) to replace them.

Fair and sustainable numbers. Sounds good to me. TP.

[Moranis]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me. 

[Roy H.]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

It would be closer to 3 years, $33 million guaranteed.

I'd give it to him, just to guarantee that some other team doesn't get him.  Again, he'd be a very good fit in Memphis, and they can offer him that same kind of deal in terms of guaranteed money.

[Celtics2021]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

If PJ Tucker got 3 years at the full MLE from someone, so can Al.  And surmising the Celtics go over that by ~10% in order to keep him isn’t crazy.

[sgrogan]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I don't, but I thought 4/80 would be over the top last time.

All other things equal we can have Al at around the MLE and a TP-MLE or a TP-MLE and a vet min.

[Goldstar88]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I think it’s more likely than any team paying Grant $17-20M/year. 

[Roy H.]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I think it’s more likely than any team paying Grant $17-20M/year. 

Yeah, that's what I was sort of getting at with my question above.

If you're a contender and you've got cap space, it probably makes more sense to pay Horford than it does Grant.

And, if you're a lousy team with cap space, it probably doesn't make sense to waste that space on Grant Williams.

[Sophomore]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

[Celtics2021]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

No, that window closed once the season started.  They can’t come to a new deal with him until free agency now.

[sgrogan]

You guys really think Al is getting a 3 year, 40 million contract.  That just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

I think it’s more likely than any team paying Grant $17-20M/year. 

Yeah, that's what I was sort of getting at with my question above.

If you're a contender and you've got cap space, it probably makes more sense to pay Horford than it does Grant.

And, if you're a lousy team with cap space, it probably doesn't make sense to waste that space on Grant Williams.

This is where the market works for the Celtics.
Sign both for MLE money (2x11.3), a TP-MLE(7) = $29.3 vs $30.6.
We added a useful player and saved Wyc money. It just seems too optimistic me.

[Sophomore]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

No, that window closed once the season started.  They can’t come to a new deal with him until free agency now.

Yeah, I was asking if they have an option, next year after free agency begins, to sign him to a new deal rather than giving him the QO. Because I think if they give him the QO and he gets an offer, our only options are to match the offer or let him go.

[Celtics2021]

If they let him become an RFA, aren’t they a little at the mercy of the offers he gets? If another team has a lot of cap next year they could frontload the offer and have it decline. Cs would have to match to keep him.

I think they can sign him to a new deal before that happens - instead of giving him a qualifying offer and letting him test the market, right?

No, that window closed once the season started.  They can’t come to a new deal with him until free agency now.

Yeah, I was asking if they have an option, next year after free agency begins, to sign him to a new deal rather than giving him the QO. Because I think if they give him the QO and he gets an offer, our only options are to match the offer or let him go.

Oh.  They can extend him the QO, but that doesn’t preclude them from afterwards signing him to a deal directly rather than just matching.  But they won’t be able to negotiate such a deal until free agency opens.