Greetings!
We at the TTG planned to provide an in-depth analysis of this exciting NBA Finals match-up between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.
Unfortunately, we just got out of work and didn't have enough time to do that.
But, without further ado, here are some of our disorganized thoughts heading into the series:
Recent history against the WarriorsCeltics have the best win percentage against the Warriors throughout the league, since 2014-2015, when including postseason.
1. Boston (9-7, 56%)
2. Toronto (9-12, 43%)
3. San Antonio (14-21, 40%)
4. Milwaukee (6-9, 40%)
5. Indiana (6-9, 40%)
TTG's advanced data analytics team identified a particularly stunning stat: Celtics won 6 of their last 7 against the Warriors, dating back to 2019. Most recently, on March 16, Celtics won 110-88. Smart and Brown each scored 26, and Smart had 20. For GSW, Poole had 29 and Klay had 18.
These teams play contrasting styles. Warriors have a free-flowing offense with heavy passing and ball movement, while the Celtics tend to isolate and hunt match-ups more often. It’ll be interesting to see who can impose theirs more often. I worry a bit about us becoming too stagnant when we hunt, and it seems that Tatum takes a couple of quarters to read match-ups, while Brown doesn’t so much.
Individual match-upsWe match-up very well, across positions. A few thoughts (and some concern):
*Jaylen sometimes struggles off the ball. He always has, right? Although he has improved, Golden State excels at passing the ball from all positions and they're a team of constant movement. I worry that Brown may get lost at times.
[Aside: During a game this year, I saw Curry and Poole each cut from the wings into the paint; they met under the hoop, locked arms, and quickly released... to gain momentum as they changed direction in their cuts. ]
For this reason, I'd rather put Brown on Wiggins than Klay. I really like that match-up. That would shift Tatum to Klay, though, which would mean a lot of running and constant perimeter pressure. If that happens, Tatum won't be able to stay down after missed shots, nor saunter back on D. It’ll be interesting to see how these two match-ups start, and whether they’re adjusted.
*What about Poole? Derrick White should provide some really good minutes here, especially if Smart is limited on-and-off throughout the series. Poole’s talented enough to score 30 any given night, though. He’s very talented at snaking to the basket with the ball, and he finishes some creative shots. Brown should be able to pressure him on the ball, and any switches with Tatum should benefit us too.
*Overall, we have a lot more size. Hopefully RW is healthy enough for us to exploit that on both ends.
DefenseWe were the top two defenses this season. Celtics are better than good, though - we're elite. My only real concern here is the way Grant Williams has been officiated. He’s been critical to our defense these playoffs, and while he deserves some credit for silly fouls, the refs seem to officiate him harsher than anyone. Last game, he was called for two fouls without making any contact w/ the player.
Health*Golden State looks good. They even saw some Game 6 Klay recently. They were smart to bring Green and Klay back from injury very slowly, and they lucked out with a weak Western Conference this season.
**This is my biggest concern. Smart and RWill need to be able to play extended minutes throughout this series for the Celtics to win this series.**
ShootingWe’re pretty good. They’re ridiculous. They can rattle off 10+ points within a minute. I believe our defensive is good enough to apply constant pressure and limit those runs. Down the stretch of games, they’re very dangerous because of their FT shooting, though. Curry is arguably the best in the game, and Poole was better than him this season.
ExperienceGolden State’s core has been here 5x before, and won 3x. Celtics are still super young. This is their 6th trip to the Finals in 8 years. This worries me. At times, I almost feel bad for the weight that Tatum has carried on his shoulders throughout these playoffs, too. They aren’t that green, though! (see what I did there?) – Tatum and co. have made the ECF 4x now, with continued improvement as a team. Horford and Smart should help right the ship when needed, too. Also, how much does it really matter? First-year coaches have been doing well.
First-year head coaches to reach the NBA Finals
-Udoka (’22) - TBD
-Nick Nurse (2019) – won championship
-Tyronn Lue (2016) – won championship
-Steve Kerr (2015) – won championship
-David Blatt (2015) – lol
Final thoughtsI’ve run out of time. A few closing thoughts, though:
*Tatum has to be special. He has risen to the moment several times during these playoffs. I trust that he’ll give it his all, and ultimately, that’s all we can ask.
*Health – Smart and RWill have to be available for extended minutes. It’s necessary this series. There’s no way around it. If they are, we’re going to be super competitive.
*Last series, we played best when getting stops and running out in transition. We're more athletic than anyone, including GSW. More of that.
*I’m too emotionally invested at this point to make a prediction with any confidence. TTG is currently recommending that I resign, due to this issue. I think if we’re relatively healthy, this will be a hard fought 6-7 game series. I give the edge to GSW due to their experience, shooting, and ability to close games at the FT line. However, I don’t think the edge enormous, and we can absolutely win this series if the above two points are met.
Sincerely,
TTG Board of Directors & Camila Elizonndro
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Topic: The Tarstradamus Group’s Newsletter #1: Celtics vs Warriors Mini-Primer (Read 1397 times)