The Matchup

[Who]

I don't actually think Rob is all that important in this series.  Horford is far more critical to the C's success as the Warriors actually have to guard Horford everywhere.  Rob is pretty worthless on offense outside of 5 feet and that plays well to the Warriors strengths.  I'm also not sure Boston gets a ton of advantage on defense against the Warriors with Rob as they always play small and fast and in that Rob is at his weakest. 

The reason I picked Boston in 5 is in the backcourt and on the wings.  I just don't think the Warriors have enough defensively quality on the wings to slow Boston down enough.

I see Rob as the separating factor in this series.

Without Rob, I see two teams playing a similar perimeter orientated style of offense & defense. Essentially BOS playing GSW's game / style.

With Rob, we have a big man who can control games with his rebounding, shot-blocking, switchable defense and rim rolling offense which GSW defends poorly. GSW typically does bad conceding easy offense and easy rebounds to interior bigs. Rob can eat up against this team just taking whatever scraps are out there to be had.

Without Rob, it becomes a skill contest. Who plays better from the perimeter. That is a fairly even contest. I'd put the series at 50-50 in that type of a battle. Maybe even slightly in GSW's favour.

With Rob and those easy offense & rebounding dominance, BOS should be the dominant team with a high probability of winning the series.

[Surferdad]

Definitely feel that Rob is a key in this series. He's better than Looney. I want to see Rob out there in the 1st half to help build a lead.

[td450]

I don't actually think Rob is all that important in this series.  Horford is far more critical to the C's success as the Warriors actually have to guard Horford everywhere.  Rob is pretty worthless on offense outside of 5 feet and that plays well to the Warriors strengths.  I'm also not sure Boston gets a ton of advantage on defense against the Warriors with Rob as they always play small and fast and in that Rob is at his weakest. 

The reason I picked Boston in 5 is in the backcourt and on the wings.  I just don't think the Warriors have enough defensively quality on the wings to slow Boston down enough.

The series will be decided by whether the Celtics can mantain offensive discipline. Rob adds a passer that moves the ball very quickly. He's our best offensive rebounder, and Smart, Tatum and Brown all have become very good at reading Rob's man in the lane and executing lobs if the defender helps, so he does draw a defender. I wish they were all better at those reads when he isn't in there, but apparently those lobs are a whole lot of fun for everyone.

The big strategic question for both teams is one big or two. I think they have more problems playing one big than we do, because we play way bigger that way than they do. Draymond and Looney don't stretch for them and aren't shooters, so that allows Rob to be very disruptive.

[Moranis]

I don't actually think Rob is all that important in this series.  Horford is far more critical to the C's success as the Warriors actually have to guard Horford everywhere.  Rob is pretty worthless on offense outside of 5 feet and that plays well to the Warriors strengths.  I'm also not sure Boston gets a ton of advantage on defense against the Warriors with Rob as they always play small and fast and in that Rob is at his weakest. 

The reason I picked Boston in 5 is in the backcourt and on the wings.  I just don't think the Warriors have enough defensively quality on the wings to slow Boston down enough.

Rob completely alters the opposing teams ability to drive to the basket. In the last series, the Warriors on average scored 50pts in the paint per game. You don’t think protecting the paint is important? 

That is because Dallas didn't have anyone in the paint and didn't have good enough wing defenders to stop the Warriors from blowing by them.  Styles make the match-ups.  I don't think GS is going to have the ability to get to the basket at will in this series and thus don't think a rim protector is going to do all that much.  Rob will obviously affect shots in the paint, he isn't going to be worthless or anything, but I don't think he is all that important to Boston winning the series.  If GS is able to consistently get to the rim, then GS will win the series whether Rob is there or not.   

[hwangjini_1]

here is some interesting information to entertain us as we all kill time waiting for the series to begin.

since 2014 (kerr and smart era) the only team in the nba to have a winning record against golden state is, you guessed it, the boston celtics, who are 9-7.

over the past 5 years the celtics have won 7 games and lost 2 games against them. so, yes, the celtics do seem to match up well with golden state. here's hoping that run of domination continues. 

https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_warriors_game_log_season.htm

[zeitgeist49]

At this point in their careers, Brown isn't > than Thompson. I would give them an =. Thompson doesn't turn the ball over as much as JB and is an excellent defender. At least as good as Brown. I agree that Rob is > than Looney, but only when healthy and available, which is a big ?

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

here is some interesting information to entertain us as we all kill time waiting for the series to begin.

since 2014 (kerr and smart era) the only team in the nba to have a winning record against golden state is, you guessed it, the boston celtics, who are 9-7.

over the past 5 years the celtics have won 7 games and lost 2 games against them. so, yes, the celtics do seem to match up well with golden state. here's hoping that run of domination continues. 

https://www.landofbasketball.com/head_to_head_gl/celtics_vs_warriors_game_log_season.htm

[Goldstar88]

At this point in their careers, Brown isn't > than Thompson. I would give them an =. Thompson doesn't turn the ball over as much as JB and is an excellent defender. At least as good as Brown. I agree that Rob is > than Looney, but only when healthy and available, which is a big ?

Not sure how you figure that. Brown has averaged more points, rebounds, assists than Thompson in both the regular season and post season. He has a higher PER as well and is at least as good of a defender, if not better. Klay has definitely lost a step due to age and injuries.

[zeitgeist49]

Well, I hope your right in your assessment. We'll see. I wouldn't refer to PER as a stat to support your position. PER is arguably the most deceptive and useless stat that exists. Consider that Greg Monroe has a higher career PER than Bill Russell and KAT has a higher PER than Bird and Magic.

[letsgoblue86]

Warriors podcast I’m listening to has them winning in 6.

Citing GSW depth and being more fresh than BOS.

Not bad points but I think they’re overestimating the Warriors prowess on both sides of the ball.

[Vermont Green]

I think Brown will outplay Thompson in this series but both will have their moments.

I think the more interesting match up is RWill vs. Looney.  I see the key here is that Looney is not that much of an offensive threat so RWill can sag and help defend on drives to the hoop.  To me, this is key.  It changes how we can defend on the perimeter.  If Williams establishes himself with a couple of blocks or even just "shot alterations" that gives our defenders more confidence to tighten up on the perimeter and puts the thought in their head that if they do back-cut or otherwise drive to the hoop, Rob will be waiting.

You still need to rotate someone back to Looney so he doesn't get a dunk but that is the key.  And Looney is not a great FT shooter (61% career) so we can hack him if he does end up with a look at the basket.  Horford can defend in this role also when RWill is out and GWill is in (Grant will be out on Green).

GSW will counter this by having Looney set a lot of picks to force switches, just like Miami did with Bam.  This pulls RWill out (or Horford).  RWill has to come out and respect/challenge the 3-pt shooters coming off the pick but then the whole team has to rotate back around and get RWill back on Looney.  That is the game.  That is the cat and mouse.  How well we are able to defend this and keep RWill in a position to defend the hoop to me is the key to the series.  If RWill flashes to double, Looney is left open.  If they give him the ball, we have to rotate quickly and precisely as they are a good passing team.  We have the personnel to do this though.

If RWill is too gimpy from the knee to do this effectively or do it all game, it takes an important weapon away from us.  It is not the end of the world to have Horford start the defensive set on Looney and put GWill on Green But RWill is the quintessential long athletic defensive big for this role.

[Vermont Green]

Warriors podcast I’m listening to has them winning in 6.

Citing GSW depth and being more fresh than BOS.

Not bad points but I think they’re overestimating the Warriors prowess on both sides of the ball.

We are getting 96 hours before game 1 and then most of the games have 72 hours and only a couple with 48 hrs turn around.  The travel is going to wear down both team equally, once they get into it.  I am not that worried about the freshness thing with this schedule.  The Celtics will have plenty of rest or bounce back time.  Boston has an extra travel day at the start, traveling from Miami to Boston and then Boston to SFO, but I think that can be managed.  They will ready for Game 1.  They will be as fresh as they have been in weeks, even with the extra travel.  It is fine with me if GSW wants to think they have a "freshness" advantage.

[seancally]

I think we might rest Rob in game 1 and try to steal it. If we steal, rest him game 2. Game 3 is June 8.

[Vermont Green]

As to depth, they have Jordan Poole who has been great at times but there isn't anyone else on their bench that concerns me.  Otto Porter has a bad foot and isn't all that good at this point anyway, Iguodala hasn't played much and is 38 years old, and then they have Nemanja Bjelica who I am not that worried about.

To counter this we have White, Grant, Pritchard, and Theis.

Different depth players tend to come up big at different points of the series.  I have as much faith in White, Grant, and Pritchard as I would expect from Poole, Porter, or Bjelica.  Poole has had some huge games in the playoffs, no doubt but I think we can contain him.  I don't expect Porter or Bjelica to go off and win a game for them.

Just for comparison, Porter's best playoff game was 13 points vs. Memphis in a blowout.  Grant Williams had 27 in game 7 against MIL.  Porter has been more consistent but I am not worried that he is going to go off.  Pritchard has had 6 double figure games in the postseason including 18 in Game 1 vs. Miami.  And White just keeps doing his thing.  Not sure if we will see Theis much but if needed, he can still be fine. 

I see Pritchard playing more of a role vs. GSW than he did against MIA.  Not every game of course but I envision him getting shots.  I also envision Grant having a game or 2 where he strings together some corner 3s to impact a game.  Poole and White need to contribute every game.  Both teams need these two to play like starters.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I think we might rest Rob in game 1 and try to steal it. If we steal, rest him game 2. Game 3 is June 8.

nah. if he can go, he will go, if he can't then he won't. we cannot afford to concede any games.
That is almost similar to saying well let's do a bullpen game so this other starter can get extra rest. if he needs rest he will rest, if he has had enough he will pitch. last thing we can afford is to get greedy and roll dice. if rob plays and we win game 1 i expect him to play again (IF he can go) and we look to steal two out there. if we win game one you MUST go for the knockout. YOu do not win game 1 and then go weak game 2 intentionally. you go for the killshot (if possible). If we win without him game 1 like you sau then i for sure play him game 2 to yet again get a sweep out there.  There are no guarantees just because you get him some extra rest he will be any better or that we win at home.

but if we steal 2 at GS. You absolutely go all out to end the series in Boston. This all a hypothetical but anything is possible especially with a ROAD DOG/ROAD WARRIOR team in these celtics.