Report: Celtics to guarantee Horford’s $26M contract regardless of Finals result

[Celtics2021]

5m per year for Al Horford is a joke. Let’s cut our big guy some slack.

He can def sign a one year deal in excess of $15m.

It isn't this summer, it is a whole extra year we are talking about. 

Just come back and find me in a year if Horford signs that type of contract and I will give you a bunch of tommy points, of course when he doesn't, I don't expect anything in return, which would be the typical for this board.

Your original premise is that he should sign an extension for $5 million per year this summer, which is 1 million percent not happening.

which would go into effect for the following summer.  He is under contract next year, the extension wouldn't kick in until after that.

And again, such a contract isn't permissible with the CBA, so why are you going through this nonsense about something that literally can't happen?

[Moranis]

5m per year for Al Horford is a joke. Let’s cut our big guy some slack.

He can def sign a one year deal in excess of $15m.

It isn't this summer, it is a whole extra year we are talking about. 

Just come back and find me in a year if Horford signs that type of contract and I will give you a bunch of tommy points, of course when he doesn't, I don't expect anything in return, which would be the typical for this board.

I think he could be given a healthy contract for one year like is suggested.  That's what the Spurs did with Manu:  he got a one year deal at age 39 that paid his $14 million, the second highest salary of his career.  He followed that up with a two-year $5 million deal, where he only played one season.

Similarly, Ray Allen left significant money on the table from the Celtics to join the Heat.  I can't remember what the report was, but I believe it was in excess of the MLE.  Kevin Garnett was making $8.5 million per season in his last couple years, despite basically being a part-time player.

So, teams do pay aging vets, particularly when they're still productive.  Horford could massively decline next season, but it's hard for me to picture him being worse than other guys who are getting around the Taxpayer MLE, like Tristan Thompson.

I mean, it would be absolutely amazing if Horford re-signed here for $5 million, and he may do that just because he loves his situation.  But, I think he could do better on the open market, with some team hoping that he puts them over the hump (whether that hump is title contention, or just making the playoffs).

The Spurs also signed Manu to a 1 year 2.8 million contract the year before that.  They did him a 1 year solid as a show of loyalty, but Manu wasn't getting 14 million on the open market coming off a 2.8 million dollar contract at age 39.  Manu was massively underpaid in his career and he did the Spurs a solid the year before on that 2.8 million dollar deal, so they returned the favor.  That is in no way comparable to what Horford's situation would be.  This is also the same Spurs that wouldn't pay Tony Parker at age 36 who went to Charlotte on a 5 million a year contract. 

Ray Allen was offered somewhere around 6 million a year from Boston, he went to Miami for the taxpayer MLE of 3 million. 

KG was paid for his off court/coaching influence, not his on the court production and they were well below the tax line when they gave him that contract.  If you want to argue that Boston is going to pay heavy luxury tax for a good role model, have it, but teams that have sort of players are like the Heat and Haslem. 

[sgrogan]

3 vet mins for Al would be around $10M, A TP-MLE + 2 Vet mins around $13.5M, a full MLE + 2 Vet Mins around $17.5M

Barring an injury I would think 3yrs/$15M would still be available at the end of next season, so Al may not be motivated to sign that deal this summer.
I don't think it's an unrealistic starting point from the teams point of view.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

5m per year for Al Horford is a joke. Let’s cut our big guy some slack.

He can def sign a one year deal in excess of $15m.

It isn't this summer, it is a whole extra year we are talking about. 

Just come back and find me in a year if Horford signs that type of contract and I will give you a bunch of tommy points, of course when he doesn't, I don't expect anything in return, which would be the typical for this board.

Clown comment.

A) Do you actually care that much about TPs? I just gave you one, and I hope it brings you joy. B) Why would the Celtics lowball Al? Al left Boston for big money.
C) Why do you have such a strong sense that you can predict the future? Do you come from a long line of soothsayers? You have a similar take on "top 5" players (not top 6, top 5).
D) Age isn't what it used to be. The average life expectancy in the U.S. has increased, as have technological advancements, especially in exercise science.
E) Load management.
F) I think the Celtics will go into the luxury tax now that they've made the Finals.
G) I love Al, and don't love the idea that you think he's going to fall apart (esp while we gear up for the NBA Finals). Can't these comments wait a couple of weeks?

[Roy H.]

C) Why do you have such a strong sense that you can predict the future? Do you come from a long line of soothsayers? You have a similar take on "top 5" players (not top 6, top 5).

G) I love Al, and don't love the idea that you think he's going to fall apart (esp while we gear up for the NBA Finals). Can't these comments wait a couple of weeks?

So your position is that Moranis is one of the X-Men, but that his superpowers involve indirect control over Al's health, rather than predicting the future?

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

C) Why do you have such a strong sense that you can predict the future? Do you come from a long line of soothsayers? You have a similar take on "top 5" players (not top 6, top 5).

G) I love Al, and don't love the idea that you think he's going to fall apart (esp while we gear up for the NBA Finals). Can't these comments wait a couple of weeks?

So your position is that Moranis is one of the X-Men, but that his superpowers involve indirect control over Al's health, rather than predicting the future?

Haha sure. Moranis is all of these things. We're lucky that he's here as a prophet to help our inferior brains understand why Al will be low-balled in the future.

Relevant to this current Finals run? No. Likely to happen? No.

None of that matters. This guy knows the future! We are all a witness.

[Moranis]

5m per year for Al Horford is a joke. Let’s cut our big guy some slack.

He can def sign a one year deal in excess of $15m.

It isn't this summer, it is a whole extra year we are talking about. 

Just come back and find me in a year if Horford signs that type of contract and I will give you a bunch of tommy points, of course when he doesn't, I don't expect anything in return, which would be the typical for this board.

Clown comment.

A) Do you actually care that much about TPs? I just gave you one, and I hope it brings you joy. B) Why would the Celtics lowball Al? Al left Boston for big money.
C) Why do you have such a strong sense that you can predict the future? Do you come from a long line of soothsayers? You have a similar take on "top 5" players (not top 6, top 5).
D) Age isn't what it used to be. The average life expectancy in the U.S. has increased, as have technological advancements, especially in exercise science.
E) Load management.
F) I think the Celtics will go into the luxury tax now that they've made the Finals.
G) I love Al, and don't love the idea that you think he's going to fall apart (esp while we gear up for the NBA Finals). Can't these comments wait a couple of weeks?

A. I don't actually care about TP's it was more in reference how all of the times I have been brutalized on this board for takes and ultimately ended up right (like say Irving) which people then ignore only to hammer me on the few takes I've had that haven't aged as well. 
B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.
C. The top 5 player analysis is based on actual history.  You can ignore history if you want, but there is a reason something happens time and time again.  You have by and large needed a top 5 player to win a championship.  That isn't always the case (as I've consistently said), but it is rare.
D. Except in sports.  Guys play similar length of time as guys in the past.  Someone like Lebron is the exception not the rule, but we've had guys like Kareem, the Mailman, etc. play incredibly well late in their careers before as well. 
E. Why would you pay a role player big money to load manage?  If he in fact is load managed, then he should be paid less.  He isn't Kawhi Leonard.
F. Of course the Celtics will go into the luxury tax, but they still need to be smart about it.  You don't pay huge money to your at best 5th best player, who is old, when you are in the tax (and with White, Rob, a re-signed Grant - even at 10 million that first season, he'd be the 7th highest paid player on the team).  It just isn't smart cap management and that is how teams implode.
G. I never said he was going to fall apart, my stance is based on his age, the league, history, etc.  I just can't see anyone paying Al big money at that point.  I also didn't start this thread, nor was I the first person to bring up re-signing him after his contract is up.

[wiley]

Good! 

I don't think he'll be traded unless the season goes South due to injured star or such...

If we are healthy next year..the team will run it back with same guys.  Makes no sense not to.  Al can be rested nicely during the regular season and will remain essential in the playoffs.

[bogg]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had. 

[Celtics2021]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had.

And again, the extension Moranis proposes is prohibited by the CBA.  This is all so silly.

[sgrogan]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had.

And again, the extension Moranis proposes is prohibited by the CBA.  This is all so silly.

Because the cut in the first year is too large?

[Celtics2021]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had.

And again, the extension Moranis proposes is prohibited by the CBA.  This is all so silly.

Because the cut in the first year is too large?

Yep.  He’d have to make $15.9 million in year one alone.

[celticsclay]

Some good battles happening here. This is really big speculation for two big reasons. For one, we don’t know if Al will want to keep playing after next year particularly if we win a championship. Two we really don’t know how much a guy can decline at this age do to either just age or age and injury. We have some reasons to believe Al would take a Boston discount (believe both he and his family have talked about how much they like Boston both after leaving and after coming back) and he seems to have great relationships with his teammates. That is about all we have to go off.

[sgrogan]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had.

And again, the extension Moranis proposes is prohibited by the CBA.  This is all so silly.

Because the cut in the first year is too large?

Yep.  He’d have to make $15.9 million in year one alone.

Thanks, so an extension is out. How early can we offer Al a new contract?

[bogg]

B. I don't consider it a lowball offer for someone age 37, 38, and 39.  It provides certainty and a conclusion to the end of his career and it is reasonable money for a player at the end of his career.

The thing is you're talking about Al signing that contract now, immediately after being the best big on a Finals team (outcome tbd), not a few years down the line when he's 38. There's no reason for him to sign that extension this summer, which is the discussion being had.

And again, the extension Moranis proposes is prohibited by the CBA.  This is all so silly.

I'm not sure that that's the case. Per Larry Coon's faq:

The salary in the first year of a veteran extension may be any amount up to 120% of the player's previous salary, or 120% of the estimated average salary (see question number 31), whichever is greater, but no more than the player's maximum salary in that season (i.e., the maximum salary the player can receive if he were to sign a new contract that year as a free agent -- see question number 23).

There is language along the lines of what you're referencing about extensions that happen as part of a contract renegation, but I don't see any corresponding language about a traditional extension:

A renegotiated contract can be extended simultaneously (see question number 58). If a player's contract is extended and renegotiated simultaneously in this manner, his salary may not decrease by more than 40% from the last season before the extension (after it is renegotiated) to the first season of the extension. For example, if the salary in the last season of a contract is renegotiated to $10 million and the contract is simultaneously extended, the salary in the first season of the extension cannot be less than $6 million.

Boston wouldn't be renegotiating Horford's deal as part of the extension, because by rule you can only do that if you have cap space and only to give a raise, so that wouldn't apply here.

Would be interested to know if I missed something though.