2021-22 Celtics Playoffs Discussion

[Roy H.]

I agree with the "that was BKN's best shot" viewpoint. I just don't see them getting that level of offensive contribution from their supporting cast more than once or twice in a 7 game series. They got it in Game 1 and failed to get the win. That does not bode well for their chances in the 5-6 games in the series where they fail to get that contribution from Kyrie, Dragic and Curry.

I see it differently.

Kyrie + Durant combined for 62 points on 21 for 44 shooting with 9 turnovers.  I don't think it's difficult to imagine them doing that again, multiple times.

There key role players (Curry, Brown, Dragic) went 11-for-21, combining for 28 points.  That's below their season average for production.

The only real outlier was probably the Nets big men, who scored 21 points on 75% shooting.  And even then, in the regular season they averaged around 17 points combined.

Overall, the Nets' efficiency was above average, but not shockingly so.  I'm just not seeing this as the outlier game that some are.

[bdm860]

KD had a bad night because the defense played him well for the most part.

I'm not sure that I agree.  The Celts didn't make things easy on him, but a lot of nights Durant is immune to good defense.  We could play the exact same level of defense on him next game and he could drop 40 on 60% shooting.

When it comes to performance over a series, I have much higher expectations for Durant than Kyrie.

Durant, I expect to have a great series, with maybe 1-2 bad games sprinkled in (and we already got 1).

Kyrie, I expect the opposite.  A bad-to-average series, with 1-2 great games sprinkled in (and hopefully we just witnessed the one).

Admittedly, this isn't based on historical numbers, as Kyrie has had plenty of playoff series where he played good-to-great the majority of games.  But this is what I expect after watching Kyrie for 2 seasons (and 1 playoff run) in Boston.  Though in Boston he was expected to shoulder more of the load, while in CLE/BRK he's had LeBron/Durant to take focus off of him.  I respect Kyrie's ability on the court, but I'm not scared of him.  Durant on the other hand...

[Roy H.]

Average Brooklyn Game: 112.9 points, 47.5% FG%, 36.1% 3PT%, 21.7 FGA, 14.1 turnovers

Game 1: 114 points, 53.8% FG%, 45.8% 3PT%, 24 FTAs, 16 turnovers

The averages, of course, don't account for games where the Nets had Harden, or where they were missing Kyrie or Durant.  So, I'm not sure how in line they are with Brooklyn's actual performance.  But, when I look at that, I see "good game", not "great game unlikely to be repeated".

[Vermont Green]

I agree with the "that was BKN's best shot" viewpoint. I just don't see them getting that level of offensive contribution from their supporting cast more than once or twice in a 7 game series. They got it in Game 1 and failed to get the win. That does not bode well for their chances in the 5-6 games in the series where they fail to get that contribution from Kyrie, Dragic and Curry.

I see it differently.

Kyrie + Durant combined for 62 points on 21 for 44 shooting with 9 turnovers.  I don't think it's difficult to imagine them doing that again, multiple times.

There key role players (Curry, Brown, Dragic) went 11-for-21, combining for 28 points.  That's below their season average for production.

The only real outlier was probably the Nets big men, who scored 21 points on 75% shooting.  And even then, in the regular season they averaged around 17 points combined.

Overall, the Nets' efficiency was above average, but not shockingly so.  I'm just not seeing this as the outlier game that some are.

Not sure what you are arguing here.  KD and Irving combined for 62 points.  That is good.  Maybe KD gets more next game but collectively, it doesn't seem like they are going to do way better than this or likely much worse.  Some of the "role" guards did well, some not so much but again, collectively, isn't this about the most you are likely to get out of this group?  And same for the bigs, I don't expect anything more out of this group and probably less, especially if RWill comes back.

So isn't the conclusion from this that the Nets played well?  They may be a little better in any given game but on average, isn't this about what you expect from them?  And we played with them and got a win in a very close game.

Will the Nets play as well in game 2?  I expect so but I don't expect them to be significantly better.  It is probably more likely they play a little worse than the play a little better.

And for the Celtics, did we see their ceiling?  I don't think so.  I saw a team that felt some jitters at times, first at the beginning and then towards the end.  I saw a starting line up that "won" against their starting line up.  I saw some reserves that did not play well and should be able to play better.

I also think the longer layoff favors the Celtics because they are at home.  Easier for them to stay in a routine.  Get their work in.  I am not sure but I suspect the Nets stayed in Boston rather than traveling back to NYC.  Either way, it favors the Celtics in that regard.

[Roy H.]

I agree with the "that was BKN's best shot" viewpoint. I just don't see them getting that level of offensive contribution from their supporting cast more than once or twice in a 7 game series. They got it in Game 1 and failed to get the win. That does not bode well for their chances in the 5-6 games in the series where they fail to get that contribution from Kyrie, Dragic and Curry.

I see it differently.

Kyrie + Durant combined for 62 points on 21 for 44 shooting with 9 turnovers.  I don't think it's difficult to imagine them doing that again, multiple times.

There key role players (Curry, Brown, Dragic) went 11-for-21, combining for 28 points.  That's below their season average for production.

The only real outlier was probably the Nets big men, who scored 21 points on 75% shooting.  And even then, in the regular season they averaged around 17 points combined.

Overall, the Nets' efficiency was above average, but not shockingly so.  I'm just not seeing this as the outlier game that some are.

Not sure what you are arguing here.  KD and Irving combined for 62 points.  That is good.  Maybe KD gets more next game but collectively, it doesn't seem like they are going to do way better than this or likely much worse.  Some of the "role" guards did well, some not so much but again, collectively, isn't this about the most you are likely to get out of this group?  And same for the bigs, I don't expect anything more out of this group and probably less, especially if RWill comes back.

So isn't the conclusion from this that the Nets played well?  They may be a little better in any given game but on average, isn't this about what you expect from them?  And we played with them and got a win in a very close game.

Will the Nets play as well in game 2?  I expect so but I don't expect them to be significantly better.  It is probably more likely they play a little worse than the play a little better.

And for the Celtics, did we see their ceiling?  I don't think so.  I saw a team that felt some jitters at times, first at the beginning and then towards the end.  I saw a starting line up that "won" against their starting line up.  I saw some reserves that did not play well and should be able to play better.

I also think the longer layoff favors the Celtics because they are at home.  Easier for them to stay in a routine.  Get their work in.  I am not sure but I suspect the Nets stayed in Boston rather than traveling back to NYC.  Either way, it favors the Celtics in that regard.

My argument is that the Nets played well, but not at their peak.  Several posters are arguing that we won't see a better game from the Nets, and I'm not understanding that point of view.

I do agree that the Celtics can play better.  Particularly in the first half, they didn't take advantage of the Nets mistakes, and the offense was terrible for a lot of the fourth quarter.

[Celtics2021]

KD had a bad night because the defense played him well for the most part. We missed a good number of layups as well.

This may not have been the Nets' best shot offensively, but it may have been their best shot to steal a game on Boston.

Yeah, roughly 60% of the Nets shots were considered tight or very tight defense (defender within 4 feet).  The Nets shot 50% on those.    The C’s had fewer contested shots, and made a lower percentage of them.  The C’s took primarily shots at the rim and from 3, while the Nets were forced into a ton of jumpers between the free throw and 3-point line.

The Nets have some good shooters, but some shot luck turned this into a 1-point game.  If game 2 is played the same way as game 1, but with more normal shot luck, the C’s probably win by double digits.  The Nets will need to make some real adjustments to win game 2, in my opinion.  I’d be happy if they look at a one point loss and think they have a good chance of winning if they do the same thing again.

[sgrogan]

Teams that do not take advantage of nights like those where your supporting cast plays big almost never win / upset a playoff series.

You only have so many nights like that in you.

BKN had one and failed to make it count.

I think our supporting cast outplayed BKN's
Smart and Al combined for 40 pts vs a regular season average of 22, Curry and Brown combined for 14 pts vs a regular season average of 24.
BKN's top2 outscored us 62-54
BKN's bench outscored us 30-17
Drummond outscored Theis 8-4

So BKN's top2 held their advantage, their bench played better than ours, but our supporting starters played much better than BKN's

[sgrogan]

KD had a bad night because the defense played him well for the most part. We missed a good number of layups as well.

This may not have been the Nets' best shot offensively, but it may have been their best shot to steal a game on Boston.

Yeah, roughly 60% of the Nets shots were considered tight or very tight defense (defender within 4 feet).  The Nets shot 50% on those.    The C’s had fewer contested shots, and made a lower percentage of them.  The C’s took primarily shots at the rim and from 3, while the Nets were forced into a ton of jumpers between the free throw and 3-point line.

The Nets have some good shooters, but some shot luck turned this into a 1-point game.  If game 2 is played the same way as game 1, but with more normal shot luck, the C’s probably win by double digits.  The Nets will need to make some real adjustments to win game 2, in my opinion.  I’d be happy if they look at a one point loss and think they have a good chance of winning if they do the same thing again.

I think a lot of this just balances out somehow.
BKN scored 114 and they average 113
Durant only went to the line 6 FTA, Tatum 12 FTA.
BKN only had 79 FGA to our 89 FGA, FTA were equal.

I think Curry + Brown playing their best is  > Dragic and Claxton playing their best.

[Vermont Green]

My argument is that the Nets played well, but not at their peak.  Several posters are arguing that we won't see a better game from the Nets, and I'm not understanding that point of view.

I do agree that the Celtics can play better.  Particularly in the first half, they didn't take advantage of the Nets mistakes, and the offense was terrible for a lot of the fourth quarter.

So if the point is that assuming there will be up to 6 more games, that there be at least one game where the Nets play better than they did on Sunday, then sure, that would be a safe bet, especially when you consider they have a couple of home games coming up.  That is where I would expect to see the best game of the series out of the Nets.  But I don't think even if they do have a "best game" along the way, that it is going to be all that much better than Sunday.

We probably are not going to sweep the Nets meaning they are going to win a game or two.  And of course they will look better in any games they win.  We are probably going to look better in some games too.

I still feel that both teams played well on Sunday, about their mean.  Either team will be better than their mean and worse then their mean on any given night, that is exactly what the mean is statistically.  We will see if either team can play to a mean that is better than what we saw on Sunday.  I think the Celtics have a better chance of playing to a higher mean than was set on Sunday than the Nets.  And of course either RWill or Simmons could affect that.  Other injuries could happen.  Refs could change how they call the games.

This is all pretty normal playoff series variation between two fairly evenly matched teams.

[Vermont Green]

Teams that do not take advantage of nights like those where your supporting cast plays big almost never win / upset a playoff series.

You only have so many nights like that in you.

BKN had one and failed to make it count.

I think our supporting cast outplayed BKN's
Smart and Al combined for 40 pts vs a regular season average of 22, Curry and Brown combined for 14 pts vs a regular season average of 24.
BKN's top2 outscored us 62-54
BKN's bench outscored us 30-17
Drummond outscored Theis 8-4

So BKN's top2 held their advantage, their bench played better than ours, but our supporting starters played much better than BKN's

Good breakdown.  Both teams have 2 stars, other starters, and bench players.

BKN's stars beat our two stars but only by a little, 8 points but if you looked at Rebs, assists and so on, I think it would even out.

Our other starters were much better than their other starters, thanks primarily to Smart and Horford (Theis didn't add much but neither did Drummond).
 
Then their bench had significantly more production than our bench (at least in terms of box score and +/-).

Going forward, their 2 stars are probably going to beat our two stars by a little bit on average so that result is pretty representative.  I think our other starters are better than their other starters and are going to continue to win that.  Our bench should be able to do better relative to their bench.

[colincb]

Sadly the 2018 ECF is the one blemish, but when the C's go up 2-0 in a playoff series, they are something like 40-1 in the series last I read.

No doubt, a win in Game 2 would be massive for our chances to win the series. One game at a time.

The Nets had the worst home record of any EC playoff team at 20-21. If we lose, we're still in it. If we win, the Nets are in very deep ...

You do realize one glaring factor in their home record this season, right? Like, a player that may not have been allowed to play due to certain local ordinances?

They still had KD and Harden.

KD only played 55 games and Harden only played 44 games for them.

So along with 29 for Kyrie they had 128 games by HOFers-to-be or 1.58 HOFers per game for 82 games and the Nets ended up 3 games over 500 and a losing record at home (w/o Kyrie). Not very impressive.

[sgrogan]

Teams that do not take advantage of nights like those where your supporting cast plays big almost never win / upset a playoff series.

You only have so many nights like that in you.

BKN had one and failed to make it count.

I think our supporting cast outplayed BKN's
Smart and Al combined for 40 pts vs a regular season average of 22, Curry and Brown combined for 14 pts vs a regular season average of 24.
BKN's top2 outscored us 62-54
BKN's bench outscored us 30-17
Drummond outscored Theis 8-4

So BKN's top2 held their advantage, their bench played better than ours, but our supporting starters played much better than BKN's

Good breakdown.  Both teams have 2 stars, other starters, and bench players.

BKN's stars beat our two stars but only by a little, 8 points but if you looked at Rebs, assists and so on, I think it would even out.

Our other starters were much better than their other starters, thanks primarily to Smart and Horford (Theis didn't add much but neither did Drummond).
 
Then their bench had significantly more production than our bench (at least in terms of box score and +/-).

Going forward, their 2 stars are probably going to beat our two stars by a little bit on average so that result is pretty representative.  I think our other starters are better than their other starters and are going to continue to win that.  Our bench should be able to do better relative to their bench.

As a team I hope your right.
But in game 1
Our best player, played at or above his mean. Durant played below his mean.
Our second best player. played at his mean, their second best player played above his mean.
Our 3rd best player (Smart) played above his mean, their 3rd best (Curry) below his mean
Our 4th best player (AL) played above his mean, theirs (Brown) below his mean,

I'm worried, that when our best player played well, and their best player didn't we one by 1 at home.

As a side note it is a little tough for me to acknowledge Marcus is our 3rd best player, but DPOY speaks for itself.
I still like C's in 7, but it is going to be ulcer inducing.

[colincb]

WEEI: Nets/Celtics series opener most viewed first-round NBA game in six years

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/celtics/nets-celtics-most-viewed-first-round-nba-game-in-six-years

[Celtics2021]

KD had a bad night because the defense played him well for the most part. We missed a good number of layups as well.

This may not have been the Nets' best shot offensively, but it may have been their best shot to steal a game on Boston.

Yeah, roughly 60% of the Nets shots were considered tight or very tight defense (defender within 4 feet).  The Nets shot 50% on those.    The C’s had fewer contested shots, and made a lower percentage of them.  The C’s took primarily shots at the rim and from 3, while the Nets were forced into a ton of jumpers between the free throw and 3-point line.

The Nets have some good shooters, but some shot luck turned this into a 1-point game.  If game 2 is played the same way as game 1, but with more normal shot luck, the C’s probably win by double digits.  The Nets will need to make some real adjustments to win game 2, in my opinion.  I’d be happy if they look at a one point loss and think they have a good chance of winning if they do the same thing again.

I think a lot of this just balances out somehow.
BKN scored 114 and they average 113
Durant only went to the line 6 FTA, Tatum 12 FTA.
BKN only had 79 FGA to our 89 FGA, FTA were equal.

I think Curry + Brown playing their best is  > Dragic and Claxton playing their best.

We took ten more shots than Brooklyn because we outrebohnded them, but this isn’t something will change most games.  Brooklyn was dead last in defensive rebounding for a reason this year.

[Kernewek]

Maybe we're not talking enough about how beautiful it would be to send Simmons, Harden, Durant, and Irving home simultaneously in the first round?

Pour one out for Patty Mills, who is great, but this Nets team might be the easiest Eastern Conference team to root against since the Heatles.