Kirk Goldberry's Latest: Elite NBA Defenders (new metrics)

[todd_days_41]

Passing this along for folks who haven't see it. Not sure what rules are about what can be cut and pasted, but will add the twe Celtics: Smart and Williams

Marcus Smart

The Boston Celtics have the top-ranked defense in the league this season in part because Smart is one of the most skilled and versatile perimeter defenders in the game. Coach Ime Udoka's defensive schemes rely heavily on switches, a strategy made possible in part by Smart's extensive defensive portfolio. Even though he's just 6-foot-3, Smart's unique blend of strength, will and skill enables him to go toe-to-toe with almost any offensive player in the league.

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

No guard in the league wants to see Smart marking him, but what makes Smart so special is that he's effective against bigger players too. He switches defensive assignments on 30.2 possessions per game, which ranks fourth among all guards in the league. Among guards, Smart is 19th in total time guarding forwards and 16th in total time guarding centers.

Only two players in the league have switched more often than Smart, and according to NBA numbers, Boston allows just 1.05 points per possession when Smart is involved in a switch, the best such number for any guard in the league.

Robert Williams III

If there's one player who is as effective as Jackson at forcing missed shots it's Boston's springy center. Williams' emergence as a truly elite defender has propelled the Celtics into the stratosphere, and there's one stat that proves his status as an elite defender: 164 players have defended 500 shots as the closest defender this season; Williams is the only one who has held opponents to under 40% shooting.

That figure is especially remarkable considering Williams defends the paint -- the spot on the court where overall field goal percentage is typically highest. Williams, however, has allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage at the rim since Jan. 1 (min. 100 FGA defended).

But make no mistake, Williams is more than just a rim protector. His emergence as one of the most versatile bigs in the league has enabled Ime Udoka to devise the team's switch-everything defensive philosophy. Williams is one of two players in the NBA to match up on defense at least 800 times each against guards, forwards and centers (P.J. Washington is the other one).

The Time Lord can hold his own against virtually any offensive player in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons the Celtics have gone from mediocre to legitimate championship contenders.

Others listed:

Fred VanVleet
Matisse Thybulle
Patrick Beverley
Mikal Bridges
Giannis
Herbert Jones
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Rudy Gobert
Bam Adebayo

[todd_days_41]

In other news, I also lol'd at this from Zach Lowe's 10 Things today:

10. Is "too little" jumping the shark?

I enjoy the classic "too little" taunt, executed by straightening one arm as low as it goes and flattening your hand, palm down -- as if you are shoving something to the floor, or patting a child on the head. (Remember when Pau Gasol petted Chris Paul's head? It did not go over well.)

Kevin Durant pinching his thumb and index finger together to metaphorically shrink Evan Fournier was a nice and very mean twist.

I like the scathing directness of the "rock the baby" taunt popularized by Russell Westbrook. There are stakes to it. Post that guy again and bonk one off the glass, and it's kind of embarrassing for you.

But everyone is doing this now, and I worry it's losing some bite. Guys are miming "too little" when there is almost no size advantage, or when the mismatch is so overwhelming it isn't close to a fair fight. LeBron hit Ish Smith with the "too little" last weekend. LeBron has nine inches and god knows how much weight on Smith; we already knew Smith was too little, and I'm not sure overpowering him is worth the boast.

[Celtics2021]

Seth Partnow also had a piece about defensive players/DPOY voting yesterday at the Athletic.  He had Smart and Williams both in his top 6, and here are some relevant passages:

Boston has the NBA’s best defense, though which player should get sufficient credit to be recognized as the best defender in the league this year? Six of the Celtics’ top seven (Smart, Williams, White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford) players rate in the 84th percentile or higher in dEPM. Smart’s candidacy is hurt by the fact that it’s been so long since a guard won the award that I’m not sure we would recognize what DPOY-level guard play even looked like.

…

We’ve been so accustomed to DPOY being a big-man award that the increased value of a point guard who can not only survive but prosper in a defense in which he is called upon to guard much larger players with regularity is overlooked. If Adebayo had played just a few more games, I would probably lean toward him given the stark contrast in Miami’s performance with and without him on the floor. However, Smart will end up playing around 500 more minutes. Considering how much he unlocks and excels in Boston’s scheme, and maybe because he bullied me on Twitter, my pick as of today would be the Boston guard.

[Roy H.]

I'm curious about this part:

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

Does anybody know -- in very broad terms -- how this works?  I understand visual tracking of players.  How would an algorithm be able to do this? 

Just remember, I'm not a mathematician or computer scientist.

[Celtics2021]

I'm curious about this part:

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

Does anybody know -- in very broad terms -- how this works?  I understand visual tracking of players.  How would an algorithm be able to do this? 

Just remember, I'm not a mathematician or computer scientist.

My guess is that algorithm includes the tracking data, but then analyzes it for patterns, so that it assigns a defender not only based on who he’s nearest to/who’s nearest to the offensive player, but also based on patterns of what a given defense does, so it can recognize switches, screens, traps, etc.

[Goldstar88]

Passing this along for folks who haven't see it. Not sure what rules are about what can be cut and pasted, but will add the twe Celtics: Smart and Williams

Marcus Smart

The Boston Celtics have the top-ranked defense in the league this season in part because Smart is one of the most skilled and versatile perimeter defenders in the game. Coach Ime Udoka's defensive schemes rely heavily on switches, a strategy made possible in part by Smart's extensive defensive portfolio. Even though he's just 6-foot-3, Smart's unique blend of strength, will and skill enables him to go toe-to-toe with almost any offensive player in the league.

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

No guard in the league wants to see Smart marking him, but what makes Smart so special is that he's effective against bigger players too. He switches defensive assignments on 30.2 possessions per game, which ranks fourth among all guards in the league. Among guards, Smart is 19th in total time guarding forwards and 16th in total time guarding centers.

Only two players in the league have switched more often than Smart, and according to NBA numbers, Boston allows just 1.05 points per possession when Smart is involved in a switch, the best such number for any guard in the league.

Robert Williams III

If there's one player who is as effective as Jackson at forcing missed shots it's Boston's springy center. Williams' emergence as a truly elite defender has propelled the Celtics into the stratosphere, and there's one stat that proves his status as an elite defender: 164 players have defended 500 shots as the closest defender this season; Williams is the only one who has held opponents to under 40% shooting.

That figure is especially remarkable considering Williams defends the paint -- the spot on the court where overall field goal percentage is typically highest. Williams, however, has allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage at the rim since Jan. 1 (min. 100 FGA defended).

But make no mistake, Williams is more than just a rim protector. His emergence as one of the most versatile bigs in the league has enabled Ime Udoka to devise the team's switch-everything defensive philosophy. Williams is one of two players in the NBA to match up on defense at least 800 times each against guards, forwards and centers (P.J. Washington is the other one).

The Time Lord can hold his own against virtually any offensive player in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons the Celtics have gone from mediocre to legitimate championship contenders.

Others listed:

Fred VanVleet
Matisse Thybulle
Patrick Beverley
Mikal Bridges
Giannis
Herbert Jones
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Rudy Gobert
Bam Adebayo

That’s quite the endorsement.

[spikelovetheCelts]

It is a joy to watch. Hopefully it will lead to a banner this year!

[Kernewek]

I'm curious about this part:

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

Does anybody know -- in very broad terms -- how this works?  I understand visual tracking of players.  How would an algorithm be able to do this? 

Just remember, I'm not a mathematician or computer scientist.

An algorithm is just a set of rules that tells a computer how to do something.

To start with an easier example: on NBA Shot Dashboard:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender/

The 'closest defender distance' filter goes from 0-2 feet, 2-4 feet, 4-6 feet, and 6ft+. The dataset is being returned based on the (digital) tape evaluation - I am 99.5% positive they're not doing this estimation by hand.

So, very simply, you say "computer, tell me how close Jayson Tatum's defenders are when he shoots the ball"?

Once you teach the computer how to tell who Tatum is, what constitutes a shot, how to tell an opponent from a teammate etc., there are loads of ways you can determine distance from a video feed, especially if you have consistent measurements (e.g. players' listed heights). It's a lot of maths, but computers are built to do that. Literally.

So for this defending player algo, we can assume it's following some logic that is (I won't type out any code because my code is trash and it'd be much more annoying) is something like:

Code: [Select]

When *team* is on defense/not in possession of the basketball, record each *team*'s player that is most adjacent to *other-team's* player for the duration of the offensive possession. Safe to assume 'partial possession' has to do with an action that lead to a switch, so Smart started off on Morant but wasn't guarding him at the end of it.

There's going to be a lot more to it, as C's2021 suggests, because you have to be pretty explicit (hence the complexity of the algo), but you could do it by hand for a given player over a given game if you wanted to.

[todd_days_41]

Passing this along for folks who haven't see it. Not sure what rules are about what can be cut and pasted, but will add the twe Celtics: Smart and Williams

Marcus Smart

The Boston Celtics have the top-ranked defense in the league this season in part because Smart is one of the most skilled and versatile perimeter defenders in the game. Coach Ime Udoka's defensive schemes rely heavily on switches, a strategy made possible in part by Smart's extensive defensive portfolio. Even though he's just 6-foot-3, Smart's unique blend of strength, will and skill enables him to go toe-to-toe with almost any offensive player in the league.

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

No guard in the league wants to see Smart marking him, but what makes Smart so special is that he's effective against bigger players too. He switches defensive assignments on 30.2 possessions per game, which ranks fourth among all guards in the league. Among guards, Smart is 19th in total time guarding forwards and 16th in total time guarding centers.

Only two players in the league have switched more often than Smart, and according to NBA numbers, Boston allows just 1.05 points per possession when Smart is involved in a switch, the best such number for any guard in the league.

Robert Williams III

If there's one player who is as effective as Jackson at forcing missed shots it's Boston's springy center. Williams' emergence as a truly elite defender has propelled the Celtics into the stratosphere, and there's one stat that proves his status as an elite defender: 164 players have defended 500 shots as the closest defender this season; Williams is the only one who has held opponents to under 40% shooting.

That figure is especially remarkable considering Williams defends the paint -- the spot on the court where overall field goal percentage is typically highest. Williams, however, has allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage at the rim since Jan. 1 (min. 100 FGA defended).

But make no mistake, Williams is more than just a rim protector. His emergence as one of the most versatile bigs in the league has enabled Ime Udoka to devise the team's switch-everything defensive philosophy. Williams is one of two players in the NBA to match up on defense at least 800 times each against guards, forwards and centers (P.J. Washington is the other one).

The Time Lord can hold his own against virtually any offensive player in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons the Celtics have gone from mediocre to legitimate championship contenders.

Others listed:

Fred VanVleet
Matisse Thybulle
Patrick Beverley
Mikal Bridges
Giannis
Herbert Jones
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Rudy Gobert
Bam Adebayo

That’s quite the endorsement.

I think Williams defense in space / on the perimeter is incredible. He takes excellent angles, changes direction with ease, and recovers quickly when he falters (for the most part). His reputation has started to proceed him.... to me, he intimidates guys on the wing into crooked decisions almost as much as he does in the paint.

[Goldstar88]

Passing this along for folks who haven't see it. Not sure what rules are about what can be cut and pasted, but will add the twe Celtics: Smart and Williams

Marcus Smart

The Boston Celtics have the top-ranked defense in the league this season in part because Smart is one of the most skilled and versatile perimeter defenders in the game. Coach Ime Udoka's defensive schemes rely heavily on switches, a strategy made possible in part by Smart's extensive defensive portfolio. Even though he's just 6-foot-3, Smart's unique blend of strength, will and skill enables him to go toe-to-toe with almost any offensive player in the league.

The NBA has developed complex algorithms to estimate who is guarding whom at any given moment of every single possession of every single game, which helps us appreciate players like Smart in ways that go far beyond his 1.7 steals per game.

For example, back on March 3 when the Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies despite not having Jaylen Brown, Smart defended Ja Morant on 27 partial possessions. In those trips down the floor, Morant -- who ranks seventh in the NBA averaging 27.6 points -- managed to take just three shots.

No guard in the league wants to see Smart marking him, but what makes Smart so special is that he's effective against bigger players too. He switches defensive assignments on 30.2 possessions per game, which ranks fourth among all guards in the league. Among guards, Smart is 19th in total time guarding forwards and 16th in total time guarding centers.

Only two players in the league have switched more often than Smart, and according to NBA numbers, Boston allows just 1.05 points per possession when Smart is involved in a switch, the best such number for any guard in the league.

Robert Williams III

If there's one player who is as effective as Jackson at forcing missed shots it's Boston's springy center. Williams' emergence as a truly elite defender has propelled the Celtics into the stratosphere, and there's one stat that proves his status as an elite defender: 164 players have defended 500 shots as the closest defender this season; Williams is the only one who has held opponents to under 40% shooting.

That figure is especially remarkable considering Williams defends the paint -- the spot on the court where overall field goal percentage is typically highest. Williams, however, has allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage at the rim since Jan. 1 (min. 100 FGA defended).

But make no mistake, Williams is more than just a rim protector. His emergence as one of the most versatile bigs in the league has enabled Ime Udoka to devise the team's switch-everything defensive philosophy. Williams is one of two players in the NBA to match up on defense at least 800 times each against guards, forwards and centers (P.J. Washington is the other one).

The Time Lord can hold his own against virtually any offensive player in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons the Celtics have gone from mediocre to legitimate championship contenders.

Others listed:

Fred VanVleet
Matisse Thybulle
Patrick Beverley
Mikal Bridges
Giannis
Herbert Jones
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Rudy Gobert
Bam Adebayo

That’s quite the endorsement.

I think Williams defense in space / on the perimeter is incredible. He takes excellent angles, changes direction with ease, and recovers quickly when he falters (for the most part). His reputation has started to proceed him.... to me, he intimidates guys on the wing into crooked decisions almost as much as he does in the paint.

I agree. He’s the most important defensive player on the team, IMO.

[gouki88]

They should be co-winners

[Silas]

They should be co-winners

At least both Rob and Marcus 1st team All Defense. 

[Csfan1984]

The way TL is used he is the best defensive player in the NBA. Though I can see guys like Giannis and Smart as better overall defenders. Role in a team defense  has to mean more if your team is #1.

[#1P4P]

Rob is such a defensive superstar! He’s elite on the perimeter and interior, on and off the ball, and against 1 through 5. In a league full of elite athletes, he might be the cream of the crop.

If there were metrics that measured the amount of drives and shots deterred by his presence, he’d be amongst the best. The only reason the voters might be reluctant to vote him as DPOY is because his rise has been so sudden (even though he’s showed this throughout his career, his previous lack of availability didn’t allow him to garner consideration).

Smart is another beast, and Rob’s stated that he’s the leader of the defense. Brad’s move to make him the defacto PG was brilliant. I theorized that after having to cover for Rondo, IT, Kyrie, and Kemba, he was tired of having to cover for poor defenders who are exploited during crunch time and the playoffs. Marcus as the PG unlocks the switch everything at this elite level, while still having a player that can handle PG responsibilities for an above average offense.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Think about it. Jayson Tatum and Horford would already be top defenders on other teams. But on this team they aren't even nearly the best.