Okay hear me out
I think perhaps he has less of a chance, because he's on a TEAM team.
We're kicking the snot outta people because we've played gorgeous team basketball. Yes Tatum has been the best player on our team. Yes you could make a case that right now he's the best player, on the best team. By a mile too. Not even close.
But I can sure imagine people not voting for him because he'd be in content "because the Celtics are winning".
Personally, I don't think this is the case, I actually think the opposite. It's because the Celtics aren't winning enough.
We all know the Celtics are doing great right now, but we can't ignore the terrible first half of the season.
If the C's were doing this all year and had a record like Phoenix's, expected to finish in the mid-to-upper 60's for total wins (the C's current 23-4 stretch puts them on pace for 70 wins over a full season), Tatum would probably be the favorite to win.
A lot of MVP voters probably think like Shaq,
who just recently compared the Celtics to the Bulls, and whIle I disagree with his views on the Celtics, I can't blame him, I wouldn't want DeMar DeRozan getting MVP or All-NBA votes over Tatum because the Bulls had a great first half.
You got to lead your team all year to win MVP, not half a season.