White vs Richardson

[nickagneta]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

[Moranis]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

[nickagneta]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

And if it looks like Boston is going to be that good and San Antonio that bad, they can trade the pick a year or more ahead of time.

[moiso]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

And if it looks like Boston is going to be that good and San Antonio that bad, they can trade the pick a year or more ahead of time.

We don't have to have a first round pick that year?  We can just trade away all of picks that year and the Spurs would be out of luck?  That sounds fishy.  Why would San Antonio ask for something that we don't have to give them?

[Moranis]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

And if it looks like Boston is going to be that good and San Antonio that bad, they can trade the pick a year or more ahead of time.

We don't have to have a first round pick that year?  We can just trade away all of picks that year and the Spurs would be out of luck?  That sounds fishy.  Why would San Antonio ask for something that we don't have to give them?

The swap is first then the pick goes elsewhere.  So we can trade the pick, San Antonio just gets first crack at it.

[Roy H.]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

And if it looks like Boston is going to be that good and San Antonio that bad, they can trade the pick a year or more ahead of time.

We don't have to have a first round pick that year?  We can just trade away all of picks that year and the Spurs would be out of luck?  That sounds fishy.  Why would San Antonio ask for something that we don't have to give them?

No, SA would still draft in our position.  We could trade the pick, but if SA moved up, the trading team gets the Spurs pick.

[moiso]

thanks guys, so it still seems like a negative thing to me.

[todd_days_41]

I'm just not sure why we gave up a 2028 pick swap in addition to everything else. I mean, if it were like Top-5 protected then I might have been fine with it, but since it's Top-1 protected only it feels like a huge gamble to take.

You can always use that pick in a trade and then the swap doesn't matter. Also, given the age of the Jays and that Pops will be gone running and coaching the Spurs, the chances of that swap not happening or being detrimental to the Celtics is very good. I think people are making way, way, way too big a deal over that swap. Like, the team's management doesn't even have to THINK about it's effects for 5 years.

Except not a single player on our current team will be under contract.  We have no idea if JB or JT will still be here.  We don't even know what the CBA will look like.  And, a single injury can send a team to the lottery, even if they have a good foundation.

In June 2028, Tatum will be 30.  White will be a couple of days away from 34.  Smart will be 34 as well, and JB will be four months away from 32. 

I have no idea what level those guys will be playing at in 2028.  They could all be in their near-prime, or some could be breaking down and injury prone.  I mean, did a middle of the pack Seattle team in 1984 think that in two seasons, they'd end up with the #2 pick in the draft in 1986?  Things can change remarkably quickly year to year, let alone six years out.

And San Antonio could go into a decade of living in the lottery. And the pick can be traded. And the pick could simply move the team up 1-3 places making it quite meaningless.

It's 5 years away and there is no guarantee the team even owns the pick then.

Much ado about nothing.

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

And if it looks like Boston is going to be that good and San Antonio that bad, they can trade the pick a year or more ahead of time.

Why do you think you're defending so vehemently something none of us have any way of predicting at this point? Is it your Eternal Optimism, Nick? 

I think the point is: best case, we just get to keep what's ours -- worst case, we get royally hosed.

[PhoSita]

Or we end up giving San Antonio the #2 pick in the draft and end up drafting 25.

extremely, extremely unlikely, for a host of reasons


the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.


it's easy to think of worst case scenarios, but there's a very good chance (like probably >50%) that the Celts didn't actually give anything up with that pick swap (because the Spurs will have a higher draft slot that year anyway), and a significant chance that even if the Spurs' pick that year is worse, the Celts will only drop back a handful of spots.

[Roy H.]

the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.

Can you explain the math on this?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.

Can you explain the math on this?

Just for example, you know how we had the Kings swap rights a couple of years ago, and then they had the best season they've had in like two decades, even though they were a very mediocre team?

Most of the time swap rights work like that.

[Surferdad]

the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.

Can you explain the math on this?

No math necessary. There’s 30 teams.  If both teams in the trade are ‘pretty good/competent’ in putting out a decent product on the floor, then they are not top-10 or bottom-10, they are in the 10-20 range.

[todd_days_41]

the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.

Can you explain the math on this?

Just for example, you know how we had the Kings swap rights a couple of years ago, and then they had the best season they've had in like two decades, even though they were a very mediocre team?

Most of the time swap rights work like that.

And just for example The Celtics received the #1 pick in the draft pretty recently in a pick swap.

[Roy H.]

the fact is that if you project out 4-5 years or more, the overwhelming likelihood is that the picks for any two given teams are gonna both fall in the 10-20 range, particularly if the teams in question have a history of being reasonably competent.

Can you explain the math on this?

No math necessary. There’s 30 teams.  If both teams in the trade are ‘pretty good/competent’ in putting out a decent product on the floor, then they are not top-10 or bottom-10, they are in the 10-20 range.

If you take any two given teams, the odds are pretty heavily against those teams both landing in the middle third.  For somebody to argue that odds are overwhelming that both teams fall in the middle third shows that they don’t understand probability.

[Moranis]

I'm not actually sure how competent San Antonio or Boston is.  San Antonio has been getting worse basically every year since Duncan retired and Boston has a brand new coach and GM.  No one on either team will be under contract during the 27-28 season leading up to the draft in question.  Anyone that has confidence in how that draft is going to work out is just fooling themselves.