Winning with Homegrown Talent

[Redz]

Below is a list of players who  are averaging 20 minutes per game (min 20 games) and are on a winning team for whom they have played their entire career.

This was hand collated so I'm not guaranteeing 100% accuracy, but I thought it was interesting.  There are a couple of teams who were affected by injury (Denver with Murray and Porter).  Also, there are plenty of guys who basically developed by their current team but played a season elsewhere (Powell, Middleton...)

Missing from the list are the Loser Lakers who have two guys that would have made the list if they could have mustered up a winning record like the juggernaut Celtics (they have Reaves and Horton-Tucker).

The List:

Boston (5)
G. Williams
R. Williams
Smart
Brown
Tatum

Golden State (5)
Looney
Green
Poole
Thompson
Curry

Philadelphia (5)
Thybulle
Korkmaz
Milton
Maxey
Embiid

Memphis (5)
Williams
Jackson
Bane
Brooks
Morant

Dallas (4)
Klieber
Finney-Smith
Brunson
Doncic

Miami (4)
Vincent
Robinson
Adebayo
Herro

Phoenix (4)
Johnson
Bridges
Ayton
Booker

Toronto (4)
Barnes
Anunoby
VanVleet
Siakam

Cleveland (4)
Garland
Mobley
Okoro
Osman

Utah (3)
O'Neale
Gobert
Mitchell

Minnesota (3)
Towns
Edwards
McDaniels

Chicago (2)
Dosunmu
White

Denver (2)
Campazzo
Jokic

Brooklyn (1)
Edwards

Milwaukee (1)
Giannis

[Vermont Green]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

[Moranis]

Minnesota (3)
Towns, Edwards, McDaniels

Cleveland (4 or 5 or 6)
Garland, Mobley, Okoro, Osman (and Sexton who is hurt and Wade who is at 19.3 mpg)

[Goldstar88]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player to help the team.

[Vermont Green]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

[Sophomore]

Romeo and (so far) Nesmith are disappointing. But people are really undervaluing Rob as a haul for 27th pick. He will deserve NBA all-defense if he continues his current play, and a little improvement in offense next year puts him in the conversation for the all-star game. That’s a big, big win picking at the end of the first round.

I mean, look at this: https://twitter.com/MattEsposito_/status/1494651417394499587?s=20&t=oKgmitNnrEqWwS9o5fqIeQ

Then, as mentioned, Grant is a solid rotation player for a playoff team at 22d. That’s a double, Pritchard I consider a solid single, backup player in the 20s. Some teams have done better, but getting these guys in the 20s ain’t bad.

[Kernewek]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

The worst kept secret in the NBA is that scouting and drafting players is as much luck as it is anything else.

It’s like planning a holiday: you can book the cheapest one available whenever you can in the hopes that you hit on a great vacation, or you can fastidiously plan exactly when you go no matter the cost, but neither is a guarantee of a better holiday experience than the other.

[Goldstar88]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

[Vermont Green]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

I am not sure that is true.  I can think of Begarin, Madar (both TBD), Ojeleye, Nader, E'Twaun Moore, Harongody, Erdan, Orion Green, Reed, Sangalia and others are players picked by the Celtics in the second round that had actual careers in the NBA.  Most had more than 100 games in the NBA.  You can't ask for much more from a second round pick.

On the other side of this, in looking back, I was reminded that James Young (#17) was another mid-first that didn't work out.  That seems to be the Celtics blind spot.  And Fab Melo (#22) is perhaps the worst first round pick by the Celtics ever and he is kind of in that range also.

[Redz]

Minnesota (3)
Towns, Edwards, McDaniels

Cleveland (4 or 5 or 6)
Garland, Mobley, Okoro, Osman (and Sexton who is hurt and Wade who is at 19.3 mpg)

lol

Thanks

Guess I missed a couple (hence my disclaimer).  I'll add them.

[Sophomore]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

I am not sure that is true.  I can think of Begarin, Madar (both TBD), Ojeleye, Nader, E'Twaun Moore, Harongody, Erdan, Orion Green, Reed, Sangalia and others are players picked by the Celtics in the second round that had actual careers in the NBA.  Most had more than 100 games in the NBA.  You can't ask for much more from a second round pick.

On the other side of this, in looking back, I was reminded that James Young (#17) was another mid-first that didn't work out.  That seems to be the Celtics blind spot.  And Fab Melo (#22) is perhaps the worst first round pick by the Celtics ever and he is kind of in that range also.

Kendrick Brown (11th) and Joe Forte (22d) in the 2001 draft deserve (dis)honorable mention. Cs passed on Richard Jefferson (13th) and Tony Parker (28). Hindsight is perfect, but it’s fair to say a lot of ppl were scratching their heads on these guys at the time.

[Goldstar88]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

I am not sure that is true.  I can think of Begarin, Madar (both TBD), Ojeleye, Nader, E'Twaun Moore, Harongody, Erdan, Orion Green, Reed, Sangalia and others are players picked by the Celtics in the second round that had actual careers in the NBA.  Most had more than 100 games in the NBA.  You can't ask for much more from a second round pick.

On the other side of this, in looking back, I was reminded that James Young (#17) was another mid-first that didn't work out.  That seems to be the Celtics blind spot.  And Fab Melo (#22) is perhaps the worst first round pick by the Celtics ever and he is kind of in that range also.

None of those guys mentioned did anything for the C’s.

[slamtheking]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

I am not sure that is true.  I can think of Begarin, Madar (both TBD), Ojeleye, Nader, E'Twaun Moore, Harongody, Erdan, Orion Green, Reed, Sangalia and others are players picked by the Celtics in the second round that had actual careers in the NBA.  Most had more than 100 games in the NBA.  You can't ask for much more from a second round pick.

On the other side of this, in looking back, I was reminded that James Young (#17) was another mid-first that didn't work out.  That seems to be the Celtics blind spot.  And Fab Melo (#22) is perhaps the worst first round pick by the Celtics ever and he is kind of in that range also.

None of those guys mentioned did anything for the C’s.

productive second round picks that have been overlooked are Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis.

[Moranis]

Interesting.  Yes, people love to bad mouth our drafting but we actually have lot to show for our recent drafts.

Pritchard nearly meets your criteria also.  He was 19.2 min last season, only 12.3 min this season.  He got caught up in a numbers game this season due to Schroder.  Still, a pretty good homegrown talent.

We seem to do well with top 6 picks, which is most important. Timelord was a hit as well and Grant has been serviceable. 2nd round and finding players through the G-league is a different story, though. Hopefully Brad can turn things around there and we can on occasion find a player that can help the team.

I think most teams do better with top 6 picks vs. late first picks.  But every year, there are about half the top 6 picks that turn out to be misses or bad picks.  Smart, Brown, and Tatum are all really good picks.  It is all relative.  Pritchard, RWilliams, GWilliams are all solid late first round picks.  Anything you get out of the 2nd round is gravy.  That leaves our mid-first round picks, Langford and Nesmith, as the only thing you can really criticize.

I don't think you can conclude that the Celtics are bad mid-first round drafters just because the the last 2 didn't pan out.  I would say that probably only 1 of 3 mid-first round picks turn out to be "good" picks so we are below average but with a recent sample size of only 2.  Nesmith and Langford are probably below but fairly close to average for where they were taken.  There are plenty of worse picks in that range in any given year.

Stevens does seem more willing to trade these mid/late first round picks than Ainge was.  He has traded two of them (#16 in 2021 and what is currently #19 in 2022 but may get later).  On average, these picks are not likely to yield any immediate help for a team.  You certainly can get lucky with them but the safer bet is to go with an established player over a mid/late first.

I’m not saying it’s easy to find talent in the second round, but hopefully Brad has some success with it. In the last 20 years the C’s have drafted one player that worked out for them in the 2nd round. Ryan Gomes.

I am not sure that is true.  I can think of Begarin, Madar (both TBD), Ojeleye, Nader, E'Twaun Moore, Harongody, Erdan, Orion Green, Reed, Sangalia and others are players picked by the Celtics in the second round that had actual careers in the NBA.  Most had more than 100 games in the NBA.  You can't ask for much more from a second round pick.

On the other side of this, in looking back, I was reminded that James Young (#17) was another mid-first that didn't work out.  That seems to be the Celtics blind spot.  And Fab Melo (#22) is perhaps the worst first round pick by the Celtics ever and he is kind of in that range also.

None of those guys mentioned did anything for the C’s.

Semi was fine in Boston so was Greene.  So was other Semih (until traded) and Reed (until traded).  Nader had a solid rookie year before Boston traded him. 

Ainge's biggest whiffs were in the middle of the 1st round.  He struggled immensely in that 15-23 range.  Lots and lots of outright busts.  More of those than would be typical, though he did a solid job at the end of the 1st round as well as in the top 10.

[GreenlyGreeny]

If you’re making picks 1-14, you probably gotta hit those 2/3rds of the time to go a long stretch without making future picks in the range of 1-14. The stakes are so high with picks 1-5, you absolutely must nail them. Picks after that are a gamble, and outside the lottery are a total crapshoot. Don’t even get me started on second-rounders. If I had my way, I’d exclusively draft athletic/unknown Euros in the second-round or trade them to teams that grossly overvalue second-rounders. Second-rounders virtually never pan out, so trying to uncover a freak in Europe like Jokic or Giannis is probably your best bet outside of the lottery, frankly.

I personally think Stevens’ apparent philosophy of taking guaranteed NBA players like Horford and White over unknown non-lottery picks is smart. I am willing to bet very heavily that White is going to do far more for the Celtics this decade than all but maybe one or two non-lottery picks in 2022 will do in their entire career (and good luck figuring out who those 1-2 diamonds in the rough will be, so why not take the certain NBA player now instead?)