Winning with Homegrown Talent

[gouki88]

If you’re making picks 1-14, you probably gotta hit those 2/3rds of the time to go a long stretch without making future picks in the range of 1-14. The stakes are so high with picks 1-5, you absolutely must nail them. Picks after that are a gamble, and outside the lottery are a total crapshoot. Don’t even get me started on second-rounders. If I had my way, I’d exclusively draft athletic/unknown Euros in the second-round or trade them to teams that grossly overvalue second-rounders. Second-rounders virtually never pan out, so trying to uncover a freak in Europe like Jokic or Giannis is probably your best bet outside of the lottery, frankly.

I personally think Stevens’ apparent philosophy of taking guaranteed NBA players like Horford and White over unknown non-lottery picks is smart. I am willing to bet very heavily that White is going to do far more for the Celtics this decade than all but maybe one or two non-lottery picks in 2022 will do in their entire career (and good luck figuring out who those 1-2 diamonds in the rough will be, so why not take the certain NBA player now instead?)

I find it quite funny that you mention White (a 29th overall pick who wasn't drafted until he was 23 years old) as a reason to ditch non-lottery picks.