Poll: which player would help the C's more

[KG Living Legend]

Based on the moves that the Cs have made I don't think they will trade or sign any players that is a below average defender.  I'm not sure about LeVert but Collins and CJ are below average defensively. Collins is better than he was but would you replace RWill in line ups with him?

I’ve always felt that even excellent defenses can get by with one bad defender.  A great example of this is the 2008 Celts.

If we were playing White / Brown / Tatum / Collins / Timelord, I think our defense would still be quite good.

 I hear your point but there is almost something to be said for not looking over your shoulder for anyone in the starting five.

[Roy H.]

Based on the moves that the Cs have made I don't think they will trade or sign any players that is a below average defender.  I'm not sure about LeVert but Collins and CJ are below average defensively. Collins is better than he was but would you replace RWill in line ups with him?

I’ve always felt that even excellent defenses can get by with one bad defender.  A great example of this is the 2008 Celts.

If we were playing White / Brown / Tatum / Collins / Timelord, I think our defense would still be quite good.

 I hear your point but there is almost something to be said for not looking over your shoulder for anyone in the starting five.

The issue is, we’re looking over our proverbial shoulder on offense.  I think we can maintain an elite defense with better offensive balance.

[Who]

Have to wonder why every year, Hawks want to dump Collins. That is usually a red flag for me.

Have the Hawks wanted to dump him or is it just media and blog types making up trade rumors? Because if they wanted to dump him I don't think they would have just given him a 5 year $125 million contract.

Looks a marriage of convenience to me. Atlanta did not want to lose a talented for nothing and John Collins wanted the most money he could get. Looks ... tenuous. Short term. Not built to last. That relationship.

Why does Atlanta want to move John Collins every year? Want is not the right word but "open to" certainly appears to be correct. They are not trying to get rid of him but are also not committed to him. If a decent opportunity presented itself, I reckon he is gone.

So why?

His game isn't a good fit with that roster. John Collins is an elite interior scorer and a passable perimeter scorer. On that Hawks team the paint is closed off to Collins most of the night because neither Capela (present starting center) or Okongwu (future starting center) can shoot the rock. They are only dunkers. Only useful around the rim. This means Collins has to spend most of his time on the perimeter when sharing the court with these guys.

This poor fit between Collins and the two centers leads to two problems - one for Atlanta and one for Collins.

(a) Collins -- he can't fulfill his potential. He is constantly in a role that is too small for his talent and he is unhappy about it. He wants more shots. He wants more touches. He wants more "star treatment" from his own team. And they do not give it to him. He takes this as disrespect. It bothers him. And every so often he complains about his role. This is not a happy player.

(b) Atlanta -- because the fit is not right this leads Collins to being inconsistent on the court. He is being asked to play to the weaker parts of his game and sacrifice the stronger parts of his game for the good of the team. The result is inconsistency. He can disappear from games. He can become passive. He is undependable. And Atlanta needs more than that from their 2nd best player. They are unhappy with his contributions. They want more from him. More consistency. More dominance. Despite this, they are unwilling to change the team to better accommodate Collins. So nothing changes. Nothing ever changes.

So you got a guy who

(1) Is unhappy with his role
(2) His team is unhappy with his performances
(3) The team needs to change the roster to open up his game but refuses to do so
(4) the team shows more commitment to keeping Capela and Okongwu than they do their $125mil man in John Collins which must infuriate the situation further

This is not a good situation. This is not built to last.

Collins will be back on the market again in the offseason or next year's trade deadline. That relationship is not built to last.

------------------------

Oh and Collins completely fails to commit / develop his non-scoring game especially his defensive game.

Like I said, his perimeter game is passable rather than potent. Part of this is his lack of ball-handling and passing. This limits his non-scoring contributions on offense from the perimeter. He does provide some accurate 3 point shooting but only in low volume as he is a reluctant outside shooter.

His rebounding is also fairly middling. Part of that is playing more on the perimeter both as a defender & also on offense which takes him out of position for rebounds. He is better around the basket (especially offensive boards) but struggles to box out bigger bodies which limits how much he can defend centers.

Then there is the defense which he does as little as he needs to do in order to get by / stay on the court. There is no commitment to improving or to winning games with defense.

This drives the Hawks nuts as well. Another reason why they have been open to moving him in the past and will again in the future. The lack of willingness to do what is necessary for the team / ugly work for winning.

Although I do wonder how much of that lack of effort comes from being on a team that regularly puts him a role that does not suit him and whether his effort would improve in a happier situation. I for one believe that is well worth finding out -- if you can offer him a happier situation which Boston cannot because the same problems Collins has with Capela / Okongwu are problems he will have with Rob Williams.

[gouki88]

Have to wonder why every year, Hawks want to dump Collins. That is usually a red flag for me.

Have the Hawks wanted to dump him or is it just media and blog types making up trade rumors? Because if they wanted to dump him I don't think they would have just given him a 5 year $125 million contract.

Looks a marriage of convenience to me. Atlanta did not want to lose a talented for nothing and John Collins wanted the most money he could get. Looks ... tenuous. Short term. Not built to last. That relationship.

Why does Atlanta want to move John Collins every year? Want is not the right word but "open to" certainly appears to be correct. They are not trying to get rid of him but are also not committed to him. If a decent opportunity presented itself, I reckon he is gone.

So why?

His game isn't a good fit with that roster. John Collins is an elite interior scorer and a passable perimeter scorer.

I find your insistence on this part of Collins' game a bit weird. Over 3 seasons he has attempted 3.3 shots per game from beyond the arc, at 39.8%. Over the last two seasons, 12.9% of his FGAs have come from 10-16 feet (50.6%), 5.6% have come from 16 feet - 3PT (49.4%), and 26.7% have come from 3PT range. That's 45.2% of his FGAs coming from 10 feet and beyond, with over a quarter of his FGAs coming from 3, and these are all made at very high clips.

Passable does not cut it when describing his perimeter scoring IMO.

[Vermont Green]

I think this is a pretty easy one.  I just look at the starting 5.  If we replace Smart with LeVert or McCollum, I am not sure we even get better.  Replace Horford with Collins and we upgrade at our weakest position.

I am not sure how good Collins is or if there are underlying issues with him.  He always just looks good but not great when you watch him.  Probably better than good, but still not quite great.  I think he would fit beautifully next to RWilliams though.  I would be very happy with a very good but not quite great natural PF.  To me, it is exactly what we need.

He is an efficient scorer on a team with a ball dominant PG and a productive rebounder on a team that has a C that gobbles up most of the rebounds.  That is exactly what we need in a PF.  An efficient shooter/scorer who can spread the floor, decent rebounding and good enough team and individual defense.  we don't need him to be a top 3 PF in the league.  I think you get all of that with Collins.  I don't see how we get him though.

[footey]

I think this is a pretty easy one.  I just look at the starting 5.  If we replace Smart with LeVert or McCollum, I am not sure we even get better.  Replace Horford with Collins and we upgrade at our weakest position.

I am not sure how good Collins is or if there are underlying issues with him.  He always just looks good but not great when you watch him.  Probably better than good, but still not quite great.  I think he would fit beautifully next to RWilliams though.  I would be very happy with a very good but not quite great natural PF.  To me, it is exactly what we need.

He is an efficient scorer on a team with a ball dominant PG and a productive rebounder on a team that has a C that gobbles up most of the rebounds.  That is exactly what we need in a PF.  An efficient shooter/scorer who can spread the floor, decent rebounding and good enough team and individual defense.  we don't need him to be a top 3 PF in the league.  I think you get all of that with Collins.  I don't see how we get him though.

Trading Horford for Collins would require a lot of draft capital. While we would be a signficant upgrade offensively, unclear of his fit with Rob Williams. And whether he fits the defensive identity that is clearly becoming the hallmark of this team.

[Roy H.]

I really like Collins.  I think he's an elite floor spacer who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he's an excellent rebounder.  He also is a very quick decision maker and doesn't hold the ball.

But, he's not the only guy that I would target.  Harrison Barnes is a guy I'd be happy with.  I'm sure there are others, but those are my top two that could be available.  I'm not a huge fan of Julius Randle.  He's very talented, but would be a poor fit, I think.  He holds the ball too much.

[Who]

Have to wonder why every year, Hawks want to dump Collins. That is usually a red flag for me.

Have the Hawks wanted to dump him or is it just media and blog types making up trade rumors? Because if they wanted to dump him I don't think they would have just given him a 5 year $125 million contract.

Looks a marriage of convenience to me. Atlanta did not want to lose a talented for nothing and John Collins wanted the most money he could get. Looks ... tenuous. Short term. Not built to last. That relationship.

Why does Atlanta want to move John Collins every year? Want is not the right word but "open to" certainly appears to be correct. They are not trying to get rid of him but are also not committed to him. If a decent opportunity presented itself, I reckon he is gone.

So why?

His game isn't a good fit with that roster. John Collins is an elite interior scorer and a passable perimeter scorer.

I find your insistence on this part of Collins' game a bit weird. Over 3 seasons he has attempted 3.3 shots per game from beyond the arc, at 39.8%. Over the last two seasons, 12.9% of his FGAs have come from 10-16 feet (50.6%), 5.6% have come from 16 feet - 3PT (49.4%), and 26.7% have come from 3PT range. That's 45.2% of his FGAs coming from 10 feet and beyond, with over a quarter of his FGAs coming from 3, and these are all made at very high clips.

Passable does not cut it when describing his perimeter scoring IMO.

I'll try to explain a bit more:

Firstly, midrange scoring is not perimeter scoring. So I do not consider his scoring in that 10-16 feet range perimeter scoring. I am fine with long twos being perimeter baskets so that has Collins getting 26% to 32% of his offense from the perimeter depending on whether you are taking just 3s or 3s plus long 2s.

So if we stay on those three pointers. It is a question of volume vs efficiency. His efficiency is very good but his volume is low. He only takes three 3s a game despite playing 31mpg so that is one every 10 minutes. Not a lot.

The reason why Collins only takes a few 3s is because he is only comfortable taking 3s when has a lot of time & space and when he is in spot-up situations. He is obviously not comfortable shooting 3s off the dribble. This reduces the amount of attempts he can get off. Neither is he comfortable shooting 3s off of movement. By this I mean on PnP opportunities, on off movement running or quick cuts/movement back to the three point line. This reduces his opportunities further. Then comes his spot up 3s where he gets his feet well set before the catch, needs time to load up and hits accurately. This need for extra time and space reduces his volume further (due to his slow release).

This is about variety. This is about situations. Basketball is situational. In how many situations are you a threat to score that three point shot? In John Collins case only in a restricted few cases of spot-up shooting where he can then hit accurately from that one situation. Other situations? Not comfortable. He becomes a reluctant shooter and rarely takes them.

So then you look at the rest of his perimeter offense outside of three point shooting, does he create much offense for himself off the dribble? Does he drive to the basket from 3? Can he attack the defense and drive and kick? Does he provide much playmaking? Again, all well below average.

So now we are looking at a player who is:

3 pointers off the dribble -- poor
3 pointers off of movement -- poor
3 pointers when spotting up -- good*
Shot creation from perimeter -- poor
Playmaking from perimeter -- poor

This is not the profile of a strong perimeter player offensively. This is the profile of a limited perimeter threat.

* And I'd say good rather than great due to the slow release, the need for more time and space to get shots off which reduces the number of situations he is willing to shoot the 3 vs other spot up shooters.

[Vermont Green]

Have to wonder why every year, Hawks want to dump Collins. That is usually a red flag for me.

Have the Hawks wanted to dump him or is it just media and blog types making up trade rumors? Because if they wanted to dump him I don't think they would have just given him a 5 year $125 million contract.

Looks a marriage of convenience to me. Atlanta did not want to lose a talented for nothing and John Collins wanted the most money he could get. Looks ... tenuous. Short term. Not built to last. That relationship.

Why does Atlanta want to move John Collins every year? Want is not the right word but "open to" certainly appears to be correct. They are not trying to get rid of him but are also not committed to him. If a decent opportunity presented itself, I reckon he is gone.

So why?

His game isn't a good fit with that roster. John Collins is an elite interior scorer and a passable perimeter scorer.

I find your insistence on this part of Collins' game a bit weird. Over 3 seasons he has attempted 3.3 shots per game from beyond the arc, at 39.8%. Over the last two seasons, 12.9% of his FGAs have come from 10-16 feet (50.6%), 5.6% have come from 16 feet - 3PT (49.4%), and 26.7% have come from 3PT range. That's 45.2% of his FGAs coming from 10 feet and beyond, with over a quarter of his FGAs coming from 3, and these are all made at very high clips.

Passable does not cut it when describing his perimeter scoring IMO.

I'll try to explain a bit more:

Firstly, midrange scoring is not perimeter scoring. So I do not consider his scoring in that 10-16 feet range perimeter scoring. I am fine with long twos being perimeter baskets so that has Collins getting 26% to 32% of his offense from the perimeter depending on whether you are taking just 3s or 3s plus long 2s.

So if we stay on those three pointers. It is a question of volume vs efficiency. His efficiency is very good but his volume is low. He only takes three 3s a game despite playing 31mpg so that is one every 10 minutes. Not a lot.

The reason why Collins only takes a few 3s is because he is only comfortable taking 3s when has a lot of time & space and when he is in spot-up situations. He is obviously not comfortable shooting 3s off the dribble. This reduces the amount of attempts he can get off. Neither is he comfortable shooting 3s off of movement. By this I mean on PnP opportunities, on off movement running or quick cuts/movement back to the three point line. This reduces his opportunities further. Then comes his spot up 3s where he gets his feet well set before the catch, needs time to load up and hits accurately. This need for extra time and space reduces his volume further (due to his slow release).

This is about variety. This is about situations. Basketball is situational. In how many situations are you a threat to score that three point shot? In John Collins case only in a restricted few cases of spot-up shooting where he can then hit accurately from that one situation. Other situations? Not comfortable. He becomes a reluctant shooter and rarely takes them.

So then you look at the rest of his perimeter offense outside of three point shooting, does he create much offense for himself off the dribble? Does he drive to the basket from 3? Can he attack the defense and drive and kick? Does he provide much playmaking? Again, all well below average.

So now we are looking at a player who is:

3 pointers off the dribble -- poor
3 pointers off of movement -- poor
3 pointers when spotting up -- good*
Shot creation from perimeter -- poor
Playmaking from perimeter -- poor

This is not the profile of a strong perimeter player offensively. This is the profile of a limited perimeter threat.

* And I'd say good rather than great due to the slow release, the need for more time and space to get shots off which reduces the number of situations he is willing to shoot the 3 vs other spot up shooters.

All these analytics sound reasonable but I also think that part of why Collins doesn't take more shots is that Trae Young is so ball dominant.  And with those comments about how he only makes 3s when he has time and space (essentially saying "good looks") aren't you describing Grant Williams' shooting?  So if we can get a player that can shoot the 3 like Grant Williams (very selectively) but who is longer, more athletic, and more versatile, isn't that a really nice upgrade?  I don't know if that qualifies as a "perimeter" player or not but to me, it qualifies as a player that could help the Celtics.

That is all I want in a PF for this team.  Let Brown and Tatum take the 3s off the dribble, the contested 3s.  I just want our PF to be a perimeter threat, someone the defense has to account for, to create more scoring balance, make the team as a whole harder to defend.  That can be a 16' shot or a 26' shot.  To give Brown and Tatum a better target to pass to.  I think Collins would give us that and then some.

[Roy H.]

I'd like to see what Collins can do with more time to work with the ball.  He only touches the ball, on average, for 1.5 seconds per touch in Atlanta, taking only 0.5 dribbles.

Is that because he can't create at all?  Or is it because the Atlanta offense is so heavily centered around Trey Young (more than six seconds per touch and 5.64 dribbles per touch, first in the NBA!)

Collins is very much a "shoot or pass" player in Atlanta.  In fact, he's second on Atlanta in passes, behind only Young (who has the ball much more often). 

Collins isn't a selfish player.  Isn't he exactly what we need?  An ultra-efficient scorer at every level who moves the ball to him teammates if he doesn't have a good look?  He's also a plus rebounder, despite playing next to Capela, who is a hoover on the boards.

In other words, I agree exactly with this:

That is all I want in a PF for this team.  Let Brown and Tatum take the 3s off the dribble, the contested 3s.  I just want our PF to be a perimeter threat, someone the defense has to account for, to create more scoring balance, make the team as a whole harder to defend.  That can be a 16' shot or a 26' shot.  To give Brown and Tatum a better target to pass to.  I think Collins would give us that and then some.

[Roy H.]

Also, the Hawks could desperately use somebody like Smart, and even Horford.  Their defense is 28th in the league, near the bottom in eFG% and turnovers created.

[todd_days_41]

I really like Collins.  I think he's an elite floor spacer who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he's an excellent rebounder.  He also is a very quick decision maker and doesn't hold the ball.

But, he's not the only guy that I would target.  Harrison Barnes is a guy I'd be happy with.  I'm sure there are others, but those are my top two that could be available.  I'm not a huge fan of Julius Randle.  He's very talented, but would be a poor fit, I think.  He holds the ball too much.

I generally agree with this. And I think Collins is as close as we're going to get to a "star", without trading Tatum, Brown, or Timelord.

FWIW, I think the notion that we can trade for any star player this summer without dealing one of Tatum, Brown, RWIII or Smart is totally out the window. I do think Barnes will be available for draft capital, though it will concern me if Stevens continues to hand out 1sts like candy.

[todd_days_41]

Also, the Hawks could desperately use somebody like Smart, and even Horford.  Their defense is 28th in the league, near the bottom in eFG% and turnovers created.

If the Hawks are going to deal Collins for Smart, will they be inclined to deal BB too? He's a nice player, but overpaid. They may wish to "dump" him for Horford in such a deal -- for both the short and long term.

And the money then works perfectly.

[Roy H.]

Also, the Hawks could desperately use somebody like Smart, and even Horford.  Their defense is 28th in the league, near the bottom in eFG% and turnovers created.

If the Hawks are going to deal Collins for Smart, will they be inclined to deal BB too? He's a nice player, but overpaid. They may wish to "dump" him for Horford in such a deal -- for both the short and long term.

And the money then works perfectly.

I think I'm the first one on the blog to propose that trade, and if I wasn't, I was close behind.  I love the idea of Collins/Bogs for Horford/Smart.  I'd add in a #1, although perhaps not much more than that.

Timelord / Theis
Collins / Grant
Tatum
Brown / Bogs
White / Pritchard

We'd need a backup PG and some wing depth, but that team is ultra-balanced.

[nickagneta]

I really like Collins.  I think he's an elite floor spacer who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he's an excellent rebounder.  He also is a very quick decision maker and doesn't hold the ball.

But, he's not the only guy that I would target.  Harrison Barnes is a guy I'd be happy with.  I'm sure there are others, but those are my top two that could be available.  I'm not a huge fan of Julius Randle.  He's very talented, but would be a poor fit, I think.  He holds the ball too much.

I generally agree with this. And I think Collins is as close as we're going to get to a "star", without trading Tatum, Brown, or Timelord.

FWIW, I think the notion that we can trade for any star player this summer without dealing one of Tatum, Brown, RWIII or Smart is totally out the window. I do think Barnes will be available for draft capital, though it will concern me if Stevens continues to hand out 1sts like candy.

I have no problem with Brad moving lots of picks. They are generally a crapshoot and you have to be willing to sacrifice 2, 3 or even 4 roster spots to players on rookie contracts and given where Boston will be picking, hope they develop into at least rotational role players.

The time for developing talent is over. It's time to surround our stars with others stars and/or great veteran complimentary pieces. Using draft capital for that is great.

Besides, it appears the team has two great prospects developing overseas they could bring in as replacements for traded away picks. So at least some influx of youth is still possible over the next couple of years with them.