Five Thirty Eight's 2021-22 NBA Predictions

[Silas]

I'm not much of a fan of 538 and their predictions, however, their current prediction for winning it all caught my attention:

Suns - 19%
Bucks - 18%
Jazz - 12%
Heat - 8%
Celtics - 7%
Clippers - 7%
Warriors - 6%
76ers - 5%

Say what you want, but maybe we are too critical about the Cs and their chances to represent the East.

[Moranis]

So the Nets have a 0% chance.  The Jazz have the 3rd best chance. Yeah you can disregard.  Stuff is nonsense.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think we might have the best defense in the league. That always matters come playoff time.

You can't completely disregard this, but it is obviously flawed. I still think the Lakers and Nets are legit contenders.

[Silas]

So the Nets have a 0% chance.  The Jazz have the 3rd best chance. Yeah you can disregard.  Stuff is nonsense.

Actually they have the Nets at 4%.  I'm not holding my breath based on their predictions.

[gouki88]

I think we might have the best defense in the league. That always matters come playoff time.

You can't completely disregard this, but it is obviously flawed. I still think the Lakers and Nets are legit contenders.

The Nets for sure, but the Lakers are absolute trash

[Roy H.]

Whatever prediction model they're using is garbage.  The 29 win Celtics and 27 win Clippers are more likely to win than the 40 win Warriors, for instance?

[Roy H.]

I think we might have the best defense in the league. That always matters come playoff time.

You can't completely disregard this, but it is obviously flawed. I still think the Lakers and Nets are legit contenders.

The Nets for sure, but the Lakers are absolute trash

Yeah, the Lakers need a major trade.  If the pull off a deadline similar to the 2018 Cavs, then maybe.  But not as they're currently constituted.

[Celtics2021]

Whatever prediction model they're using is garbage.  The 29 win Celtics and 27 win Clippers are more likely to win than the 40 win Warriors, for instance?

They have two models.  The player-based forecast uses the value of the talent on the rosters to simulate, and probably includes some probability of both Kawhi and George returning.  The ELO-based forecast uses strength-of-schedule based results, including point differential.  In that model the Warriors have the second-best odds, at 17%.  Clippers drop to 0.3%.  C’s drop to 4%, which is still 4th best in the East.

The thing about both models is that they view the East as wide open.  In each of them the Celtics are one of 5 teams with a 10% chance or greater of reaching the finals.  Given how clumped the standings are, this doesn’t seem crazy to me.

[Surferdad]

GS at 7%?  Ha, they might win it all once back at full strength.

[CelticsWhat35]

Whatever prediction model they're using is garbage.  The 29 win Celtics and 27 win Clippers are more likely to win than the 40 win Warriors, for instance?

I don’t agree with the %’s either, but I’m thinking this discrepancy has more to do with the top of the West being stronger