Tatum is an All Star; Brown Isn't

[keevsnick]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

I mean quite frankly  i think many advanced metrics just overate Tatum because for some reason they REALLY love his defense, which is good but not nearly as good as they seem to think. And some of those metrics just like him more in part because he's played more minutes/games, also Brown played six games injured which drags down some of his numbers. I don't think there's as big a gap between Tatum and Brown as many people seem to, although I do think Tatum is better. 

So if the Celtics only get one it should be Tatum. He's played 25% more games and all else being mostly equal he's a better passer who is a bigger part of their whatever offense success they have than Brown is because of how much attention Tatum draws. So ya, Tatum gets the nod for me as much as I like Brown.

[bdm860]

This whole season feels like when you sim through a couple of seasons in NBA 2k and the league gets a little wacky.

Darius Garland, Fred VanVleet, Andrew Wiggins as All-Stars?

Along with no Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Paul George, Klay Thompson, Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, etc.

And then the standings with Chicago, Cleveland, Toronto, Minnesota all on pace for the playoffs. And Celtics, Lakers, Hawks, Blazers on the outside looking in, and Brooklyn in 6th and LAC in 8th.


Go back to the middle or end of last season, could anybody have predicted this stuff?  Sure 1 or 2 things maybe, and of course some of the injury related stuff is obvious, but as a whole everything looks so weird when looking through the lens of past seasons.

[Big333223]

JB individually probably deserves to be an all star, but the Celtics as an organization don't deserve both with how they've performed so far.

This is it. There is just no way the Celtics were going to have 2 al stars with that record. If they had played better earlier, won a few more of those overtime games, blew a couple fewer leads and were 3rd or 4th in the East Jaylen would probably be an all star, even with identical numbers.

[Who]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

I mean quite frankly  i think many advanced metrics just overate Tatum because for some reason they REALLY love his defense, which is good but not nearly as good as they seem to think. And some of those metrics just like him more in part because he's played more minutes/games, also Brown played six games injured which drags down some of his numbers. I don't think there's as big a gap between Tatum and Brown as many people seem to, although I do think Tatum is better. 

So if the Celtics only get one it should be Tatum. He's played 25% more games and all else being mostly equal he's a better passer who is a bigger part of their whatever offense success they have than Brown is because of how much attention Tatum draws. So ya, Tatum gets the nod for me as much as I like Brown.

I would say advanced stats pick up on two things:

(1) On offense - there is an advantage in having a 6-8 forward who has higher than normal skills for the SF (or even more so at the PF) position in terms of outside shooting ability, ball-handling and passing ... versus Jaylen at the SG position where he has the shooting ability but is below average in terms of passing and ball-handling. As the SG position contains many more secondary ball-handlers (often even combo guards) than the forward positions do + the SG spot is often home to the deadliest shooters on the team.

There are positional advantages in having the same skills but in a bigger body / position. Think of Jokic having PG skills at center as an extreme case. Tatum gets a boost in this as a forward vs Jaylen at SG.

(2) On defense - Tatum at 6-8 and long allows him to do some defensively in a more passive way that are effective because of his size and length. Jaylen at 6-7 and with superior lateral quickness is much better at getting up underneath opposing players and pressuring them on defense but due to his smaller size he is not as good as playing off of them. You see this both in one-on-ones and on team defense where Tatum is clogging the passing lanes with his length.

I remember back to Tatum's rookie year and Jaylen was the better man defender but even then Tatum's size allowed him to stand up to guys like LeBron better. Big wings. He could stand further off of them and use his length. Jaylen on the other hand did not have that option and instead played to his strengths and tried to use his quickness & physicality on LeBron. LeBron the great offensive player that he is was able to use that against Jaylen and was very effective attacking him but had a harder time against the more conservative / passive appearing defense of Tatum.

[td450]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

I mean quite frankly  i think many advanced metrics just overate Tatum because for some reason they REALLY love his defense, which is good but not nearly as good as they seem to think. And some of those metrics just like him more in part because he's played more minutes/games, also Brown played six games injured which drags down some of his numbers. I don't think there's as big a gap between Tatum and Brown as many people seem to, although I do think Tatum is better. 

So if the Celtics only get one it should be Tatum. He's played 25% more games and all else being mostly equal he's a better passer who is a bigger part of their whatever offense success they have than Brown is because of how much attention Tatum draws. So ya, Tatum gets the nod for me as much as I like Brown.

The Celtics have wrapped their entire team offense around Tatum, and don't have guards who are playmakers. Brown has built his game out of opportunistic scoring sprees because that's what the team wants from him.

Subtract Tatum in the short run and the team is going to be a mess. That could be fixed, but it would take a couple of months at least. Subtract Brown, and no one needs to adjust much.

Personally I think they could swap roles and it could work out quite well longer term if Tatum would accept it (which is unlikely). But it would take a while to work out

[nickagneta]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

[Roy H.]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

Level of play is very close, but the availability to play hasn’t been.  Tatum wins the tiebreaker simply based upon games played.

[Celtics2021]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

Level of play is very close, but the availability to play hasn’t been.  Tatum wins the tiebreaker simply based upon games played.

Pretty much.  I think if Jaylen had played 14 more games, he’d be in too, partly because availability matters, and partly because the C’s record would likely be 2-3 games better, and thus would look like a team that deserves 2 instead of 1.

[PhoSita]

a team that's hanging around .500 and is currently in 9th place shouldn't have two All-Stars so this seems correct to me

[nickagneta]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

Level of play is very close, but the availability to play hasn’t been.  Tatum wins the tiebreaker simply based upon games played.

So serious question. If the roles were reversed and Brown played in 49 games and Tatum 39, do you think Brown would be an All-Star and Tatum not?

I don't.

[RJ87]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

Level of play is very close, but the availability to play hasn’t been.  Tatum wins the tiebreaker simply based upon games played.

So serious question. If the roles were reversed and Brown played in 49 games and Tatum 39, do you think Brown would be an All-Star and Tatum not?

I don't.

Reserves are voted in by coaches, so I don't know if the "media loves Tatum more" narrative fits this situation.

With that said, the All-Star returns showed that Jaylen fared poorly in the fan vote, player vote, and media vote. He had the worst weighted score of the 40 players (20 east and 20 west) who made the final pool of players.

[LilRip]

Tatum has played 10 more games than Brown.  Tatum's on/off differential is +10.6, Brown's is +6.1.  Tatum also has a higher pure +- at 5.3 to 4.6.   Tatum has higher WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM (all 3 even defensively), and basically every advanced metric you can look at.  Tatum has nearly double the AST% and a lower TOV%, better TRB% (as well as ORB and DRB) and BLK%.  Brown has a better STL%.  Brown is shooting better from 2 and 3, though Tatum is better from the line with a better FTr. 

Given all of that, as well as the totals, it is basically impossible to argue with a straight face that Brown is more deserving of an all star nod unless the only thing you care about is FG% and even then have to disregard the 25% more games Tatum has played.

Never said more deserving.

Said as deserving.

And all the advanced and counting stats aren't some major advantage for Tatum. The differences between the two in most stats, counting and advanced are extremely small to next to nothing. . it's not like Tatum has significant difference advantage in almost all those stats, which is why you didn't actually state those differences. They only ones you mentioned were the +/- stats which are extremely noisy due to who each spends off the floor with each other.

I still stand by my statement. This year, the difference between how each has played overall is insignificant and both are as important to the team. Tatum gets were media recognition and better history, so he is in. No one is going to convince me otherwise.

Level of play is very close, but the availability to play hasn’t been.  Tatum wins the tiebreaker simply based upon games played.

So serious question. If the roles were reversed and Brown played in 49 games and Tatum 39, do you think Brown would be an All-Star and Tatum not?

I don't.

Ok, so serious answer is… no. Because Brown isn’t as good as you’ve been saying. C’s may have ended up with zero all stars had that been the case (like how the hornets have zero all stars). But again, it’s not Tatums fault that Brown wouldn’t be getting in. Coaches vote the reserves, not the fans. And from my observation, generally the two biggest criteria seem to be “impact to winning” and “individual brilliance”.

Brown is a special talent but he’s not a surefire or perennial all star that we all would like to think he is. He needs a winning environment to emphasize his impact, much like a Wiggins, Draymond, etc. Those guys aren’t bad players by any stretch of the imagination but their teams do need to win for them to be considered all stars. For example, I think Jarrett Allen is a bigger snub than JB (again because of the winning effect) but stats-wise, I’d probably take JB on my fantasy team. You know who’s a snub that no one is talking about but is putting up great stats that are probably better than JB? Sabonis.